在一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会召开之际，董事长沃伦·巴菲特罕见地坐在台下而非台上，接受了CNBC的专访，分享了他对当前市场、投资哲学、美国经济及接班人等话题的深刻见解。以下是此次访谈的十个要点：
现金充裕但投资环境不理想
伯克希尔持有近4000亿美元现金（实际约3800亿），但因价格过高或缺乏理解，巴菲特不愿轻易投资。
60年投资生涯中只有约5个“肥美年份”
多数时间需要耐心等待，只有在极少数真正有利的时机才大举行动。
当前市场像“附带赌场的教堂”
大量投机者交易一天期期权，这不是投资也不是投机，而是纯粹的赌博，监管也未能阻止人们钻规则空子。
最佳买入时机是市场崩溃时
当其他人都不接电话、市场恐慌时，才是真正的好机会。平时吹嘘交易部门的人在危机中往往消失。
不投资自己不理解的行业
巴菲特承认自己最近多年没有学习新行业，不会在年轻人有优势的领域假装有竞争力，只专注于理解的企业（如苹果）。
失控通胀无法应对，只能避开
二战后许多国家经历过恶性通胀，美国也不能免疫。一旦货币失去信仰，社会将彻底改变。
AI深度伪造是严重威胁
尤其是在拥有核武器的国家背景下，一个能完美模仿总统的假视频可能造成灾难性后果。
选择格雷格·阿贝尔接班的原因
不仅因为他非常懂商业，还因为他即将成为美国公民，对此感到自豪，这种对美国的认同感无法用金钱购买。
美国的“秘密配方”
两百多年来持续吸引全球移民，尽管财富分配极不平等，但依然成功；这种特殊之处难以精确定义，却是真实存在的。
给股东的终极建议：黄金法则
“己所不欲，勿施于人”——适用于生活的一切方面，不花成本却能带来更好的对待，从未见过遵守此法则的人感到不快乐。
以下是访谈的全文翻译（后附英文原文，供参考）：
中文版
记者：我们现在正与沃伦·巴菲特坐在一起，他是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长。这是60年来他第一次坐在台下观众席中观看这一切，而不是站在台上。你知道，去年这个时候，沃伦，你宣布辞去CEO一职，让所有人都感到意外。一年过去了，我们来到了这里。你怎么看？
巴菲特：嗯，我觉得一切都在正常运转。一切都在正常运转。从为伯克希尔部署现金的角度来说，这里并不是我们理想的地带——或者说环境不理想。但从我们拥有正确的管理层、正确的安排来看，它是没问题的。你知道，我们可以选择时机，没有人能确切地告诉我们该做什么。所以有时候我们什么也不做，但其他时候我们会变得非常活跃。
记者：你知道，阿吉特今天在台上花了一些时间谈到，他的一个关键点就是在保险业务上——在承保方面——要什么都不做，这和你一直以来在是否投资上谈论的观点是一样的。
巴菲特：是的。世界上到处都是人向你提供各种可以做的事情，问题是要找到一个你知道有意义的。外面可能有20个机会看起来有意义，但你不理解它们，那你就别碰它们。
记者：你说世界或者说周围的环境并不理想。我想这指的就是手里有近4000亿美元的现金。尽管格雷格费了些功夫显示实际现金更像是3800亿美元。（笑声）但手里的现金确实很多。而且你仍然在积极管理投资组合，也在看股票。你环顾四周，却看不到很多你想投资的东西。（清喉咙）
巴菲特：嗯，那我们就不做任何事。在我从事这个行业的60年里，你知道，大概只有五年是真正肥美的年份。（笑声）我想起IBM的老汤姆·沃森，有人问他IBM为什么如此成功之类的问题。他说：“我很聪明地知道一些好位置，并且就待在这些位置附近。”事情就是这样。IBM曾经涉足三个不同的业务，包括考勤钟之类，其中两个后来都不行。但（笑声）他们只专注于那一个。
记者：当你环顾四周时，是什么让你觉得——只是价格太高了吗？我想，就像格雷格今天在台上也说的，有些企业你是喜欢的……
巴菲特：我会说，相对于整体而言，我理解的行业比例比十年前要少。我已经有好些年没有学习新的行业了。你知道，我不会自欺欺人。我不会去学习，我不会在一大群年轻人面前拥有优势，那些年轻人是伴随着新行业长大的，用过产品，见过世面。但是，正如我提到的，你不需要理解太多像苹果那样的公司。
记者：但环顾四周，让我们谈谈宏观看法，因为我不确定格雷格是否会就此发表评论。就宏观股市环境而言，你感觉如何？感觉昂贵吗？感觉某些地方还有机会吗？
巴菲特：嗯，感觉就像——你知道，我把它比作一个旁边附设了赌场的教堂，人们可以在教堂和赌场之间移动。我总是说，教堂里的人更多，赌场里的人也更……但赌场对人们的吸引力变得非常大。如果你在买一天期的期权，或者卖它们——我的意思是，那根本就不是投资，也不是投机，那是赌博，纯粹是赌博。没有人能解释为什么他们要买一天期的期权，除非可能某个因为知道我们何时进入委内瑞拉而赚了四十多万美元的家伙能做到。但我的意思是，这相当……这种东西的数量简直令人难以置信。所以我们从未见过人们像现在这样处于更强烈的赌博情绪中。但这并不意味着投资就很糟糕。这确实意味着大量东西的价格会显得非常愚蠢。我的意思是，你知道，他们经历过轧空，甚至是在Avis这样的公司——这家公司已经存在50年了，就在刚刚过去的一周。而且我们现在有更多的监管等等，但人们花时间琢磨如何绕过规则，而不是遵守规则。这正是一个挑战。
记者：不过，你自己的投资类型——你已经说得很清楚了。在你做这行的60年里，你只遇到了大概五个肥美的年份。我想这意味着你总是在寻找下一个肥美年份。你觉得需要发生什么才能形成一个肥美的年份，或一个肥美的机会给你？
巴菲特：很多时候，就是一个电话。你知道，我们去年买了一家企业，它规模不大，不足以产生重大影响。我们收到了一封信。
记者：贝尔实验室（译者注：这是一家鼠害防治技术公司belllabs，不是大家知道那个贝尔。）？
巴菲特：是的。贝尔实验室。……你知道，有时候它们附带的零比其他时候多一些。我们的规模足以处理任何事情，我们能比任何人都更快地做出决策，我们的承诺是可靠的。有很多人——他们在从事倒卖某物的生意，你知道……如果你是一个好的推销员，情况会好得多，没必要卖吸尘器，对吧？我们会卖股票，那样能赚更多的钱。钱都在那里。
记者：是的。
巴菲特：而且现在周围的钱比以往任何时候都多。
记者：但最好的机会可能出现在宏观环境需要……
巴菲特：最有可能的是——最有可能买入东西的时候，是其他所有人都不愿意接电话的时候。你知道，其他所有人都在吹嘘他们多么棒的交易部门。找个时间去试试。有时候市场崩溃的时候，他们不接电话。
记者：对，对。
巴菲特：如果他们接了，报价是待定的，要价也是待定的，价差很大，而且他们会利用从你那里得到的关于你想做什么的信息，去用其他方式干掉你。我的意思是，那真的就像去了屠宰场。你会有一阵子不想吃热狗。（笑声）
记者：我想我想问的是，你是否看到任何地方正在积累可能导致再次出现那种局面的情况？比如市场上的某种恐慌？你在哪里看到了苗头？
巴菲特：嗯，如果你看到了，它们就不会发生。
记者：好吧。
巴菲特：我的意思是，各种可能性都有。你不担心人们正在谈论的可能发生的事情。有些事情会突然冒出来。嗯。但总会有事情突然冒出来。
记者：是啊，我的意思是，（笑声）一颗核弹也可能突然冒出来，你知道。
巴菲特：嗯，我们敲敲木头吧。（笑声）嗯，敲敲木头没什么用。这才是重点。
记者：是的。
巴菲特：就像1914年左右的费迪南大公被刺杀，引发了一战。我只是说，生活中所有事情……如果一件事是人们正在谈论和思考的，那它就不会发生。
记者：是的。
巴菲特：但总有一些事情会突然发生。实际上，现在用这个说法尤其贴切，因为有些事情可能从天而降，你知道……我们不知道明天会发生什么。我不喜欢对别人那么说，不管是你还是其他人。因为，你知道，担心那些事情对你有什么好处？我认为担心没有好处。我认为意识到它是好的，但担心它则是糟糕的。我不喜欢——我甚至不喜欢引起人们这种信念。我不喜欢到处说……
记者：是的，是的，告诉他们末日要来了，末日要来了，或者类似的话。（笑声）
记者：一个朋友昨天告诉我，他最近开始用一句话：“我不烦恼，我不担忧。” 这大概是一种很好的生活方式。但让我们谈谈现在存在的一些问题。嗯，通货膨胀在上升，这是一个问题。那么伯克希尔，伯克希尔如何用它的业务来应对这个问题？
巴菲特：嗯，我们无法应对失控的通货膨胀，除非是避开它的路径。如果你看看自二战以来有多少个国家经历过失控的通货膨胀，在我的一生中，数量非常大，你知道。一旦你制造了它，世界就变得不同了。显然，德国在一战后经历过，但还有几十个、几十个国家经历过。当然，有些国家破产了六七次。我的意思是，（笑声）人们做的事情真是令人惊叹。但在金融市场……
记者：那我们现在面临的通胀呢？你知道，并不算过高，目前略高于3%，但甚至还没回到疫情期间8%到9%的水平。那么，仅仅是能源价格上涨呢？这会如何传导，你们又如何应对？
巴菲特：嗯，在沃尔克之前曾经很接近。我的意思是，当时现金就是垃圾，人们正在失去对货币的信心，他们觉得可以借12%的钱去赚6%的农业收益之类的。内布拉斯加州有很多大农场主破产了，因为他们买的超出了盈利能力，或者支付的利息超出了盈利能力，只是因为他们觉得美元会消失，而土地不会消失。这对很多人来说是悲剧。而且，如果你是城里最好的医生或最好的律师，在任何情况下你总能赚到钱。最好的电视主持人，我的意思是……但是，对一个国家来说，失去对货币的信心会让它变成别的什么东西。
记者：是的。
巴菲特：我一直希望美国永远不会那样，但我们也不能幸免。我们对利率可能上升半个点还是下降半个点有很多控制权，但我们对它们是否上升50个点可能控制力较弱。（清喉咙）
记者：您长期以来一直是杰伊·鲍威尔的支持者。
巴菲特：没错。
记者：他上周刚刚作为主席主持了他的最后一次FOMC会议。他确实说过他会继续留任，留在美联储，保持那个位置……在可预见的未来，部分原因是他面临的各种威胁。
巴菲特：他在的时候我会感觉更好，而不是他不在的时候。我的意思是，你知道，沃尔克在的时候我也感觉更好。但是，经济学家并不是最擅长这类事情的人。去读任何一本1950年、1970年的旧经济学教科书，比如保罗·萨缪尔森写的，他是个很棒的人，聪明绝顶。他的标准教科书用了25年。如果你在里面查找零利率，年复一年，那是一本900页的书，里面没有这个词条。你知道，我的意思是，那是最重要的经济发展，就其影响而言，对学生阅读期间的一切都是如此。但是……
巴菲特：正是那些你没想到的事情造成了所有的损害。
记者：是的。
记者：我们来谈谈伯克希尔一些持股公司的CEO们。你提到了苹果公司的蒂姆·库克，你认为他做得很出色。
巴菲特：难以置信。
记者：他并不是你主要持股公司中唯一卸任的CEO。詹姆斯·昆西最近也从可口可乐卸任了。我们刚刚采访了维姬·霍利布，她宣布将从Accidental的那个职位退休卸任。格雷格谈到过，这个投资组合是多么稳定，这些持股公司都是他熟悉的企业，他熟悉的经理人（音乐）。一些主要持股公司将会有新的经理人进来，这是个问题吗？
巴菲特：嗯，这在我还在可口可乐公司的时候，确实曾经是好些年的一个问题。我的意思是，当然。而且，最大的问题往往出现在一家真正优秀的公司身上，因为它会继续经营下去。我的意思是，如果你销售的是人们每天都买的产品，你可以做错误的决定很长时间。是的。但这也是投资中的问题之一。蒂姆·库克，我觉得他从一开始就非常非常好。我们的大多数经理人，在处理较小的问题上都非常出色。他们无法预见那些压倒性的问题。那是我的工作，或者现在是格雷格的工作。
记者：你仍然看好那些持股吗？你见过那些企业的新经理人吗？
巴菲特：我都没见过老的经理人（笑声）。
记者：那些即将上任的新CEO们？蒂姆的接替者？
巴菲特：可口可乐的恩里克。
巴菲特：我当然见过贝尔实验室的人，我们……
记者：是的。你知道，我显然见过维姬。我们达成了交易。所以我喜欢见人，但是……你可能会在用人上犯错。你看看离婚率，你知道，那可比你是否选对了CEO或任何其他事都重要。而且现在你有多年的试用期。我年轻的时候，你必须做决定，或者你不必做决定。很多人在20或21岁就做决定……
记者：结婚。
巴菲特：是的，他们结婚了。而现在他们花了五年时间，仍然犯同样的错误。（笑声）（喘息声）
记者：所以，你认为我们的判断力变差了？
巴菲特：嗯，我不知道。也许是人们在婚前和婚后的行为不一样。谁能确切知道？是的。
巴菲特：我想几乎每个人在结婚一个月后，都会觉得他们的婚姻要么比预期好，要么比预期差，（笑声）但我不确定是哪种。
记者：沃伦，我们来聊聊深度伪造，因为这次会议早些时候出现的那个深度伪造的沃伦还挺像的。他们让一个人站在那里，你知道，格雷格还开了玩笑。但是，你知道，第一个问题是来自坐在高处看台上的一个来自奥马哈的人提出的。你一直担心一些AI深度伪造，以及这对世界意味着什么。
巴菲特：是的，我会担心。实际上，最糟糕的事情是出现一个能完美模仿任何总统的人。我的意思是，想象一下。嗯，是的，我们很久以前在新泽西有过那个著名事件，他们说火星人来了之类的。
记者：奥森·威尔斯的《世界大战》。
巴菲特：你能做的事情……嗯，如果你能说服别人为此借钱给你，那他们就不该借。我的意思是，这很可怕。尤其是当有大约九个拥有核武器的国家，以及人们正在研究更厉害的东西时。我们还没有处理过这个问题。我们不知道会发生什么。
记者：是的。让我们回到伯克希尔和今天的伯克希尔。我想我昨天或前天在和你说话时，我们聊到了一点格雷格·阿贝尔，说他是个多么好的人。他说……
巴菲特：他是个很棒的人。
记者：但你跟我说了一些有意思的话，关于你为何选他，并不是因为他是个好人。你为什么选他？
巴菲特：嗯，他对商业非常非常非常精明。顺便说一句，他很快就要获得他的加拿大——我的意思是，他很快就要获得他的美国公民身份了。他和我一起复习了所有他需要学习的东西。我以前确实花过一些时间跟一些团体在一起。当然，我妻子也这样做过，成为了美国公民。他们要学习关于宪法等等的知识，他们通常为自己成为美国公民感到非常自豪。我想我察觉到了格雷格也有这种感觉。我的意思是，尽管他如此成功，但成为美国公民这件事对他确实有意义。你知道，他和他的小儿子坐在一起，他儿子对他在入籍考试中可能被问到的一些问题的答案比他懂的还多。这真的很有意思。世界上还有哪里会发生这种事？我的意思是，你知道，美国是特别的，它是一个奇迹，美国所取得的成就是一个绝对的奇迹。然而，产出的分配方式，其不平等程度几乎是你能想到的最极端的，但同时它又具有如此巨大的吸引力。有一种神秘的配方，我一直无法精确定义它，但当一个国家运转了200多年，每年都有人想来到这里，我的意思是，这确实有其特别之处。当格雷格·阿贝尔非常期待成为美国公民时，那对他意味着什么。你在任何地方、任何包装里都买不到这种感觉，麦迪逊大道的广告方式也行不通，比如“做个美国人”之类的。但是那种感觉，在我95年的生命里，我一次又一次地见证了它。所以当格雷格就在这一两天主动告诉我，他很快就要参加最后的入籍考试时，我感觉很好。
记者：我不知道他还不是双重国籍。我知道他是加拿大人，但我以为他有双重国籍。
巴菲特：他还没有完全满足公民身份的所有要求。你可能会问，他为什么在乎？我的意思是，没有这个身份他在这里也过得很好。但他仍然想成为一个公民。
记者：是的。我们即将庆祝250周年国庆。你指出你已经经历了其中95年。你认为我们国家有那种特殊的配方能延续下去吗？或者我们需要做些什么来保护它，确保它能延续？
巴菲特：我们有一种特殊的配方。那是一种秘密配方。这个秘密如此之好，以至于我都不确切知道它是什么。但我确实知道这一点：任何有选择的人都会选择生在美国。我的意思是，你可以选一些非常小的国家，他们的人民很快乐，但是……还有哪个国家是几百年来人人都想移民过来的？我的意思是，它确实吸引了一些糟糕的人，但……它成功了。不同群体都有黑帮，不只是意大利黑帮，我只是说……并不是说我们有一套系统能挑选出来自其他国家的优秀人才，但它确实有效。但它有效到了某种极端程度，这种极端似乎不属于那种社会应有的样子。我的意思是，如果你在为一个理想社会绘制蓝图，你会希望有这么高的人均GDP等等，你不会设计出这样的继承法，你不会……我的意思是，你会用完全不同的方式做很多事情，但不知何故它奏效了。但那并不意味着我们不能做得更好，一点也不。
记者：沃伦，有成千上万的股东，你的合伙人，有些已经跟你合作了几十年，他们现在就坐在这会场里。我想知道你有没有什么信息想对他们说，那些多年来追随你、作为你合伙人的人。
巴菲特：我给他们最重要的规则就是黄金法则：对待他人如你希望他人对待你。我不是一个信教的人，但没有人比这说得更好，在几千年里都没有，这也许就是它能流传至今的原因，在一定程度上。我的意思是，如今读一本2000年前关于如何行为处事的书的人，比读任何最新出现的东西的人都要多。它里面有很多东西，尤其是旧约，有各种不同性质的故事。但是如果全世界都遵循黄金法则，那将是一个美好得多的社会。
记者：己所不欲，勿施于人。
巴菲特：是的。这适用于一切，从为人父母，到做老板，到所有事情，我的意思是，生活中的一切。而且它不花你一分钱。事实上，它会体现在别人对你更好的行为上。所以我的意思是，从某种意义上说，这是一件非常自私的事情，但我从未见过任何一个那样做的人感到不快乐。我看到过很多不同处境下的人。
记者：沃伦，非常感谢你今天抽出时间与我们坐下来交谈。沃伦·巴菲特，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长。格雷格·阿贝尔马上就会上台，你们很快会看到他的更多发言。
英文版
Interviewer:We are sitting down right now with Warren Buffett, uh, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who for the first time in 60 years has been watching all of this from the audience instead of being on stage. And, you know, last year at this time, Warren, you surprised everyone with the announcement that you were stepping down as CEO. Fast forward a year and here we are. What do you think?
Buffett:Well, I think it's all working. It's all working. It isn't our ideal uh surrounding area. uh or environment I should say uh in terms of deploying cash for Berkshire. uh but in terms of how we got the right management, we got the right arrangement and uh you know we can pick our spots and and uh nobody can tell us what to do exactly and uh so sometimes we're doing nothing. But other times we get quite active. I mean.
Interviewer:you know Ajit spent some time on the stage today talking about how one of his keys is to do nothing when it comes to insurance when it comes to writing insurance, which is the same thing that you have always talked about with whether to invest or not.
Buffett:Yeah. The world is full of people that are offering you things to do and then the question is to find one that you know makes sense. And there may be 20 out there that make sense that you don't understand and you just leave them alone.
Interviewer:You said that the world or the surrounding environment is not ideal. And I guess that points to the idea that there's almost 400billionincashonhand.AlthoughGregtooksomepainstoshowit′sreallymorelike400billionincashonhand.AlthoughGregtooksomepainstoshowit′sreallymorelike380 billion in cash on hand. [laughter] But that there's a lot of cash on hand. And you're still active in managing the portfolio too and looking at stocks. You're looking around and you don't see a lot that you want to invest in. [clears throat]
Buffett:Well, then we don't do anything. I mean, we've been in of the 60 years I've been in the business, uh, you know, there probably five of them been really juicy, you [laughter] know, and, uh, I think it was Tom Watson senior of IBM that, uh, said they asked him the reason why IBM had been so successful or something like that. And he said, "I'm smart of spots and I stay around those spots." And that's the whole thing. And IBM was in three different businesses including time clocks and a couple and two of the three turned out to be no good. But [laughter] they just focused on the one.
Interviewer:What is it when you look around that it's just prices are too high at this point? I would imagine, Greg said this from the stage too. There are businesses that you like just.
Buffett:And I would say I understand fewer of the businesses as a percentage of the whole than I did 10 years ago. I have not learned uh new industries uh for some years, you know, and so I don't kid myself on that. I'm not going to learn. I'm not going to have an edge on, you know, a whole bunch of younger people that have actually grown up with it, used the product, seen things, but that uh well, as I mentioned, you know, you don't have to understand too many of them like Apple.
Interviewer:But looking around, um let's just get some macro thoughts on this because I don't know that this is something that Greg is going to comment on per se. Just looking at the macro stock market environment, what does this feel like to you? Does it feel expensive? Does it feel like there are opportunities in some.
Buffett:Well, it feels like, you know, I've compared the markets to a church with a casino attached and people can move between the church and casino and I always said there are more people in the church and more people in the casino. But the casino's gotten very attractive to people. You know, if you're buying one day options or selling them. I mean, that is uh that's not investing. It's not speculating. It's gambling, you know, just totally. There's nobody that can explain why they're buying an option for one day unless maybe the fellow that uh you know made the $400 and some thousand dollars from knowing when we were going into Venezuela could do it. But I mean that's pretty and the quantity of those things is just incredible. So we've never had people in a more gambling mood than now. But that doesn't mean that investing is terrible. It does mean that uh prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly. I mean, they had a squeeze and then in Avis of all things. Well, has been around for 50 years, but just this past week. And uh we have lots more regulation and everything now, but uh people spend their time figuring out how to get around the rules rather than follow the rules. That's just a challenge.
Interviewer:The type of investor you are though is you laid it out yourself. In the 60 years you've been doing this in the business, you've had maybe five juicy years. I guess that means you're always looking for the next juicy year. What do you think it would take to make a juicy year or a juicy opportunity for you?
Buffett:It's a phone call in many cases. You know, we bought a business last year. It wasn't big enough to be meaningful. We got a letter.
Interviewer:Bell Labs?
Buffett:Yeah. Bell Labs. And no. And uh you know, sometimes there's more zeros attached to them than others. And we're big enough to handle anything and we can make decisions faster than anybody. And our word is good. uh There's an awful lot of people that when they're in the business of reselling something or you know it's uh and it's a lot better if you're a good salesperson. There's no reason to be selling vacuum cleaners or you know as we'll sell stock — you'll make way more money. It's where the money is.
Interviewer:Yeah.
Buffett:And there's more money around than ever.
Interviewer:But the best opportunities have probably come when the macro environment needs to…
Buffett:Most likely — well, the most likely time to buy things is when nobody else will answer their phones. You know, everybody else talks about their wonderful trading departments and everything. Just try them out. Sometime when markets are collapsing, they don't answer the phones.
Interviewer:Right. Right.
Buffett:And if they do, the bids are subject and the offers are subject and the spread is wide and then they'll use the information they get from you about what you want to do to go out and kill you some other way. I mean, it's really like going to a slaughterhouse. I mean, you don't feel like eating hot dogs for a while. [laughter]
Interviewer:I guess what I'm trying to get at is do you see the circumstances building up anywhere that could lead to a time like that again? Any sort of panic in the market? Where do you see them?
Buffett:Well, if you saw them, they wouldn't happen.
Interviewer:Okay.
Buffett:I mean, you've got all kinds. You don't worry about what people are talking about can happen. It's something that comes out of the blue. Huh. But something will come out of the blue.
Interviewer:Yeah. I mean, [laughter] a nuclear bomb could come out of the blue, you know.
Buffett:Well, let's knock on wood on that. [laughter] Well, it doesn't do any good to knock on wood. That's the point.
Interviewer:Yeah.
Buffett:It was the archduke getting shot, you know, in 1914 or something like that for World War One. And I just take everything in life — if it's something people are talking about and thinking about, it's not going to happen.
Interviewer:Yeah.
Buffett:But there are things that can happen out of the blue. And actually that's particularly true to use that phraseology now because the things that can come out of the sky, you know, we don't know what can happen tomorrow. I don't like to talk that way to people whether it's you or anybody else. I mean because whether it does you a lot of good to worry about that — I don't think it does any good to worry about it. I think it's good to be cognizant of it but worrying about it is terrible. I don't like to even cause that belief with people. I don't like to go around…
Interviewer:Yeah, tell them the end is coming. The end is coming. Or something [laughter] like that.
Interviewer:A friend told me yesterday he's recently started using the phrase, "I don't fret, I don't worry." And that's probably a good way to go about life. But let's talk about some of the issues that are out there right now. Um, inflation is up. That's an issue. So how does Berkshire handle that with its businesses?
Buffett:Well, we can't handle runaway inflation except not to be in the way of it. And if you look at the number of countries that have had runaway inflation since World War II, you know, in my lifetime, it's very large. And once you create that, it becomes a different world. Germany obviously experienced it after World War I, but there are dozens and dozens of countries that have experienced it. And of course, you have countries that have gone bankrupt like six or seven times. I mean, [laughter] it's just amazing what people do. But in financial markets…
Interviewer:What about the inflation that we're dealing with right now, which is not excessive — was north of 3% at this point, but we're not even back at the levels we were during COVID, 8% to 9%. So, what about just higher energy prices? How that works through the line and how you handle it?
Buffett:Well, it came close before Volcker. I mean, cash is trash, you know, and people were losing faith in the currency and they felt they could borrow at 12% to earn 6% on farming or something like that. And they had huge farmers in this state, Nebraska, collapsed because they bought beyond their earning power or paid interest rates beyond their earning power just because they felt that the dollar was going to disappear and the land wouldn't disappear. And it's tragic for many people. And if you're the best doctor in town or the best lawyer in town, you'll always make money under any situation. The best TV personality. I mean, but what not having faith in the money does to a country — it turns it into something else.
Interviewer:Yeah.
Buffett:And I've always hoped that the US never does it, but we are not immune from it happening. We have a lot of control over whether rates may go up a half a point or down a half a point, but we may have less control over whether they go up 50 points. [clears throat]
Interviewer:You've long been a supporter of Jay Powell's.
Buffett:Exactly.
Interviewer:He had his last FOMC meeting as chairman just this last week. He did say that he's going to be sticking around, staying on the Fed, staying in that position for the foreseeable future, in part because of the threats that he's faced.
Buffett:I'll feel better when he's there than when he's not. I mean, I just felt better when Volcker was there. But, you know, economists aren't the best at this sort of thing. Read any old economics book from 1950, 1970, that was Paul Samuelson, who was a terrific guy and smart as hell. He had the standard textbook for 25 years. And if you looked up zero interest rates, year after year after year — it was a 900-page book and there wasn't an entry for it. I mean, it was the most important economic development in terms of the impact it would have on everything during the lifetime of the students reading it. But…
Buffett:It's what you don't think of that does all the damage.
Interviewer:Yeah.
Interviewer:Let's talk a little bit about CEOs in some of the Berkshire holdings. You mentioned Apple's Tim Cook and just the phenomenal job you think he's done.
Buffett:Incredible.
Interviewer:He's not the only one of your major holding CEOs who stepped down. James Quincy recently stepped down from Coca-Cola, too. And we just spoke with Vicky Halib who announced that she is retiring and stepping down from that position at Accidental. Part of what Greg's talked about is how stable that portfolio is and these holdings are companies that he knows and managers that he knows. There's going to be some new managers in some of those major holdings coming in. Is that a problem?
Buffett:Well, it was certainly a problem at Coca-Cola there for good many years when I was around the company. I mean, sure. And you have the most problems with a really good company because it'll continue. I mean, if you're selling some product that people are buying every day, you can make the wrong decision for a long time. Yeah. But that's one of the problems with investing. Tim Cook — I felt was very, very good from the start. And most of our managers are very good at the smaller problems. They can't anticipate the overwhelming problems. That's my job, or now Greg's job.
Interviewer:Do you feel good about those holdings still? Have you met any of the new managers of those businesses?
Buffett:I haven't met the old managers. [laughter]
Interviewer:Of the new CEOs that are coming in? Tim's replacement?
Buffett:Enrique at Coca-Cola.
Buffett:I certainly met the people at Bell Labs that we…
Interviewer:Yeah. You know, and obviously I met Vicky. We made the deal. And so I enjoy meeting the people, but you can make mistakes with people. I mean, look at the divorce rate — that's more important than whether you got the right CEO or anything else. And now you've got years of trial. I mean, back when I was young, you had to make the decision, or you didn't have to make a decision. A good many people made the decision when they were 20 or 21 now…
Interviewer:…to get married.
Buffett:Yeah. They got married. And now they spend five years and they still make the same mistakes. [laughter] [gasps]
Interviewer:So, you think we're getting worse at our judgment?
Buffett:Well, I don't know. Maybe that people behave differently before the marriage than after. Who knows exactly? Yeah.
Buffett:I would say that almost everybody feels either their marriage is better or worse than they anticipated a month after they were married, [laughter] but I don't know which.
Interviewer:Um, Warren, let's talk a little bit about deep fakes because the deep fake Warren that popped up early in this session was pretty good. Um, they had somebody standing up, you know, Greg was joking about it, but, you know, the first question went to a guy from Warren up in the rafters who lives in Omaha. Um, you've been concerned about some of these AI deep fakes and what that means for the world.
Buffett:Yeah, I would be concerned. Actually, the worst thing would be to have a really good imitator of any president that came along. I mean, just imagine. Well, yeah, we had that famous thing before way back in New Jersey where they had the Martians coming and everything like that.
Interviewer:War of the Worlds with Orson Welles.
Buffett:What you can do — well, if you convince people — but people lend you money for it, they shouldn't. You shouldn't be borrowing it. I mean, it's scary. And it's particularly scary when you have nine countries or so with nuclear weapons and people working on something even more. We haven't dealt with this. We don't know what's going to happen.
Interviewer:Yeah. Let's circle back to Berkshire and the Berkshire today. Um, I think I was speaking with you yesterday or the day before and we were talking a little bit about Greg Abel and what a nice guy he is and he said…
Buffett:He's a terrific guy.
Interviewer:You said something interesting to me though about how you picked him and it wasn't because he was a nice guy. Why did you pick him?
Buffett:Well, he's very, very, very smart about businesses. Incidentally, he's getting his Canadian — I mean, he's getting his American citizenship here very soon. And he was going over with me all the things he had to learn about. And I've actually spent a little time in the past with groups of individuals. Of course, my wife did it too, became an American citizen, and the things they have to learn about the Constitution and all these — and they're usually so proud when they become American citizens. And I think I detected Greg — I mean, you know, as successful as he's been and everything else, it means something to him to become an American citizen. And you know, he sits there with this young son, and the son knows more about some of the answers to the questions that he may get asked about becoming a citizen. It's really interesting. And where else does that happen in the world? I mean, America is special. And it's a miracle what America's accomplished. I mean, it's just an absolute miracle. And yet the division of the output and everything is about as inequitable as you can come up with, while at the same time it's got these great attractions. There is some secret sauce. I've never been able to define it precisely, but when you run a country for 200-some years and people want to come here every year, I mean, there's really something about it. And when Greg Abel is looking forward to becoming an American citizen, that means something to him. And you can't buy that at any place or package it — it won't work for a Madison Avenue approach, you know, "Be an American" or something like that. But that feeling, in my 95 years, I've seen it time after time. So I felt good when Greg just volunteered that in the last day or two to me that he was up there for his final exams here pretty soon becoming a citizen.
Interviewer:I didn't realize he wasn't a dual citizen already. I knew he was Canadian, but I thought he had dual citizenship.
Buffett:He doesn't have the full whatever the complete citizenship requirement is. And you can say, why does he care? I mean, he's gotten along fine without it here and everything. He still wants to be a citizen.
Interviewer:Yeah. 250 years — we're celebrating our 250th anniversary. You pointed out that you've been around for 95 of them. You think we have the special sauce that will continue in this country, or what do we need to do to preserve that and make sure that it does continue?
Buffett:We've got a special sauce. That's a secret sauce. It's such a good secret that I don't know exactly what it is. But I do know this: that anybody that has a choice would choose to be born in America. I mean, you can pick some very small little country — they're very happy that they're there — but is there any other country that for a couple hundred years everybody has wanted to immigrate to? It attracted some terrible people, too, but it worked. And they had the mafias from different groups — not just the Italian mafia, all of them. I mean, it wasn't that we had some system for picking out the wonderful people from other countries, but it has worked. But the extremes to which it works don't seem to belong to that kind of a society. I mean, if you were drawing up dreams for the ideal society and you would have this kind of GDP per capita and everything, you wouldn't design the inheritance laws. You wouldn't — I mean, you would do all kinds of things differently. But somehow it's worked. But that doesn't mean that we can't do better — at all.
Interviewer:You know, Warren, there are thousands of shareholders, partners of yours for decades in some cases, who are sitting out in this arena right now. And I just wonder if there's a message you'd like to give to them — those who have been following you for years and who've been partners of yours for years.
Buffett:The number one rule I give them is the golden rule: treat others as you would have them treat you. I'm not a religious guy, but nobody said it any better in a couple thousand years than that, which may be why it's lasted to a certain degree, too. I mean, more people are reading a 2,000-year-old book about how to behave than anything that anybody's coming up with lately. Now, it's got a lot — particularly the Old Testament has different kinds of stories to some extent — but if the whole world lived by the golden rule, it would be such a more wonderful society.
Interviewer:Do unto others as you'd have them do unto you.
Buffett:Yeah. And that's true for everything from parenthood to being a boss to being all — I mean, just everything in life. And it doesn't cost you anything. In fact, it's reflected in better behavior toward you. So it's a very selfish sort of thing in one sense, but I've never seen anybody that's unhappy that behaves that way. And I've seen a lot of people in a lot of different kinds of situations.
Interviewer:Warren, I want to thank you for taking this time to sit down with us today. Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Greg Abel is going to be taking the stage in just a moment and you will see more from him in just a moment.