Blue Whale News, March 3 (Reporter Tang Shiyun) – The short drama industry is undergoing another upheaval, and this time, it is largely due to AI. On March 3, the hashtag #HongguoSuspendsManyProjects# topped the trending list. Market rumors suggest the platform canceled its guaranteed revenue-sharing model, leading to a sudden 50% drop in live-action short drama production across multiple platforms, with many companies pausing live-action projects.
For this ever-changing industry, a reshuffle has arrived once again. Behind the public spectacle lies a shift in capital, the anxiety of industry insiders, and new forces eager to make their move amidst the changes.
After Guarantees Cancelled, Many Producers Pause Live-Action Projects and Adjust Teams, While More Actively Embrace AI
The source of this outbreak appears to be a policy change by a major platform.
Multiple industry insiders confirmed to Blue Whale News that Hongguo has cancelled minimum guarantees for several production partners, a distinct adjustment that occurred around early February. Following the change in guarantee policy, business volume for top production companies closely tied to Hongguo plummeted, affecting upstream and downstream practitioners and widening the radius of impact.
During the "land grab" phase, platforms provided scripts and varying ratios of guaranteed incentive amounts to partner producers to lock in high-quality production resources and capacity. An insider revealed to Blue Whale News that without scripts or live-action projects on hand, many production companies are pivoting to AI short dramas to maintain revenue and keep teams running. According to their understanding, many production companies have been adjusting teams and "optimizing" (laying off) staff recently. Based on revenue-sharing statements from recent months, the sharing coefficients may also be declining. Works achieving similar results to past projects are seeing their revenue share nearly halved.
Furthermore, an insider stated, "Those most affected are the production partners working closely with the platform; other companies are okay." Blue Whale News learned that several affected companies are currently negotiating with the platform. Due to the cancellation of guarantees, payments for some executed projects have not yet been settled.
A single platform's policy adjustment doesn't represent the whole market, but deeper structural changes are occurring. Beyond those pivoting because live-action projects were stopped, more money and people are actively flooding into AI short dramas.
The past year, 2025, was dubbed the "Year One" of "Manju" (comic dramas, i.e., AI short dramas), with multiple platforms and major tech companies issuing policies to heavily support their development. By now, according to DataEye's February Top 100 Manju List, the total playback increase for the top 100 reached 7.58 billion, a month-over-month increase of over 20%. Among them, nearly 20 comic dramas saw playback increases exceeding 100 million. Thus, pivoting to AI short dramas seems like the general trend.
An insider admitted that platform subsidies cannot last forever, and policy adjustments are inevitable. However, the iteration of AI tools represented by Seedance 2.0 has significantly accelerated this process.
The aforementioned insider added that, in reality, it was already difficult to churn out hit live-action short dramas last year; hits were generally concentrated among well-known brands and high-budget projects. Consequently, most production teams have begun to transform and chase the new traffic wind—comic dramas—just as everyone flocked to overseas markets last year.
Amidst this, short drama giants are accelerating their AI layouts, and new incentive policies are emerging. More critically, the barrier to entry for AI dramas is much lower than for live-action shoots. The reporter learned that the current production cost per minute for comic dramas has dropped to around several hundred yuan. Therefore, the cost of an entire AI short drama might be only tens of thousands of yuan—a fraction, or even a tenth, of a live-action drama. Whether active or passive, AI will be the keyword for the short drama industry's development for some time to come.
Who Is Actually Watching AI Simulated-Human Short Dramas? Actors Reveal Fewer Recent Projects and Price Cuts for Filming
The change certainly didn't happen overnight. Top screenwriters revealed to Blue Whale News that they have been considering pivoting to AI short dramas since the beginning of 2025. On one hand, project costs are lower; on the other, AI short dramas allow for a wide range of content production, making it easier to realize themes like fantasy, apocalypse, and sci-fi. Notably, female-oriented and more realistic themes have also been gradually rising this year.
A growing trend is that AI "live-action" (simulated human) short dramas are surging, becoming the absolute main force in the comic drama explosion. These are works generated by AI in a simulated human style. DataEye's February Top 100 list shows that AI simulated-human short dramas account for nearly 60%.
As early as last year, when types like "sand sculpture comics" and 3D animated comics sparked discussion, insiders suggested that simulated-human AI dramas were the future.
The iteration of AI tools like Seedance 2.0 is making this future a reality. An insider admitted that issues like consistency were topics from six months ago; current image quality has improved significantly. During this year's Spring Festival period, the AI short drama track produced high-quality hits like Martial God: Divine Realm Chapter and Immortal Execution Platform: AI Live-Action Version.
Under the shock of AI simulated-human short dramas, which type of work is likely to be affected first?
Some believe AI simulated dramas will affect the scale of ordinary comic dramas, but practitioners argue that the audience overlap is minimal. AI simulated dramas prioritize dramatic logic, while dynamic comics prioritize comic style; the former's themes may be more accessible, while comic dramas focus more on "brain-hole" and "power fantasy" routes based on themes like high martial arts, national destiny, and supernatural games.
Overall, the audience overlap between AI simulated dramas and actual live-action short dramas is likely higher, meaning the latter will inevitably be impacted. A short drama actor revealed to Blue Whale News that many of his peers either have no roles or are filming for reduced pay. Recently, the price offered for projects approaching him is half of what it was before—a trend that became particularly obvious after the New Year. He and his friends discussed this and believe the squeeze on live-action projects by AI short drama development is a significant factor.
However, some interviewed actors believe AI lacks emotion and fans, so AI simulated dramas cannot replace live-action ones. One actress tried watching AI short dramas but felt it was "just like watching cartoons." Even AI model cards reveal differences in shadow placement and real scenes, let alone actual acting. The aforementioned actor stated bluntly that just as AI customer service hasn't replaced human agents, it cannot necessarily meet all needs, nor is it always more efficient or accurate.
[Image: AI Simulated Short Dramas Are Still in Early Stages; Defects Like "Six Fingers" Occur Occasionally]
Therefore, the market for live-action short dramas will always exist, though new trends may emerge: top actors will remain strong, and elite teams will become even more refined, while companies that can't compete in live-action must find another way out.
AI short dramas might be that way out. This doesn't mean AI short drama competition isn't fierce; the barrier and costs are low, but professional teams have relatively more experience. Ultimately, it depends on whose content is better and who uses the tools more skillfully. "Everyone is using the same pot and spatula now; it just depends on who cooks the tastier dish," an interviewed insider summarized.
More than one interviewed insider mentioned the words "fairness" and "equal rights"—this may be the fundamental reason for capital flooding into AI and the industry's transformation. The current competitive landscape for live-action dramas is relatively clear, but the emergence and iteration of AI have granted "creative equal rights" to all participants. The competition is fierce, but the opportunities are equal. And constant change and reshuffling are the most fascinating parts of the content industry.