作者：《环球时报》(Global Times) 李宣民，张蔚蓝

田丰锐评

1. 《环球时报》：阿里、腾讯、百度加入春节AI红包大战，千问、元宝、文心一言APP计划向用户派发10~30亿元红包，您认为为什么多家大模型app把春节红包作为竞争的重要载体？

田丰:

2026年是“AI电商元年”，智能体支付必然先行。互联网流量从传统App快速向“AI新入口”切换，通用智能体成为AI电商助手、本地生活管家“第一落点”，比如千问app，左手用户流量，右手商品供应商，而支付权限成为AI电商闭环的“任督二脉”，春节通过发红包让用户把钱包绑定到大厂智能体中以便后续消费畅通无阻，成为腾讯元宝、阿里千问、字节豆包“三国杀”的第一场大战。

2. 《环球时报》：您如何看待今年，大模型app的竞争格局，哪些场景会成为重要的竞争入口？在大模型应用上，会有哪些新的趋势？

田丰:

1）大模型全面重构流量入口: 搜索已被取代，电商、本地生活正在切换，AI内容营销+AI广告新型流量即将涌现，AI社交、AI游戏仍在探索更有效的商业模式。

2）AI应用关键战役: 打通基础大模型的“商业最后一公里”，AI钱包支付、AI代理权限、AI导购助手、AI营销助手成为必争之地。

3）大模型应用的盈利赛道: AI视频通过广告、漫剧赚钱，AI编程通过开发者订阅挣钱，AI新终端通过专用场景赚钱（会议助手、项目管理助手、翻译助手、运营助手等），AI小模型通过行业场景解决方案挣钱，“Model as a Service+AI云”通过智能体开发赚钱。

《环球时报》新闻网址：

https://enapp.globaltimes.cn/article/1354605

中文版

【高端财经报道】中国AI大模型企业春节激战数字红包营销

2026年1月29日，江苏省南通市一家幼儿园的孩子们在操场上表演舞龙迎春。

随着腾讯、百度、阿里巴巴及字节跳动等中国科技公司为即将到来的春节推出数字红包激励措施，国内大语言人工智能模型企业的竞争已显著从底层技术竞赛转向下一个关键阶段——全力争夺首个拥有海量用户规模的消费级AI入口。

1月31日，腾讯AI助手"元宝"因启动春节红包活动，跃居苹果应用商店免费应用榜首。该活动将向用户发放总额高达10亿元人民币的数字红包，单个红包金额最高可达1万元。

此次营销最早于上周公布。据澎湃新闻1月26日报道，腾讯创始人兼CEO马化腾表示，公司"希望复刻11年前微信红包的成功"。2015年春节，腾讯曾通过微信"摇一摇"功能发放5亿元现金红包，借此在移动支付领域站稳脚跟。

无独有偶，百度AI助手"文心一言"宣布，1月26日至3月12日期间，用户通过百度App使用文心一言即可参与分享5亿元现金红包。

据界面新闻报道，阿里巴巴的"千问"App也将在春节期间推出红包活动并发放奖励，总金额预计达数亿元，具体数额仍在最后确认中。

去年12月，字节跳动旗下火山引擎宣布与"春晚"达成独家AI云合作。其AI助手"豆包"将推出一系列与春晚联动的交互功能。

分析指出，随着2026年成为"AI应用爆发年"，用户规模与使用频次将成为白热化竞争的核心。北京市社会科学院研究员王鹏1月31日对《环球时报》表示，今年AI产业竞争将从"大模型"转向"生态化与商业化"。他强调，"争夺下一代AI超级入口"具有重要战略意义，谁能率先培养用户"遇事先问AI"的习惯，谁就能获得通往互联网生态新时代的门票。

"这正是所有科技巨头加紧构建集成自身生态优势的消费级AI助手的原因——例如百度的搜索、腾讯的微信、字节跳动的抖音以及阿里巴巴的电商服务，"王鹏解释道。

快思慢想研究院院长、原商汤科技智能产业研究院创始院长田丰指出，AI助手建设如同打通大模型落地AI电商的"最后一公里"。他预测，AI支付钱包、AI购物助手、AI营销助手等领域将成为2026年关键竞争战场。

开源证券研报认为，互联网巨头本轮春节红包营销可能标志着其正式加入消费级AI超级入口的争夺，促销活动或推动元宝、通义千问、文心一言等应用的下载量及日活用户激增。

中国AI用户基础已颇具规模。中国互联网络信息中心去年10月报告显示，截至2025年6月，国内生成式AI用户数达5.15亿（半年内翻倍），渗透率达36.5%。

分析人士称，尽管发放数字红包是有效的引流手段，但AI助手应用能否被用户二次、三次乃至反复打开仍是未知数——换言之，其提升用户黏性的能力有待检验。

英文版

With Chinese tech companies including Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba and ByteDance rolling out digital hongbao (red packet) incentives for the upcoming Spring Festival holidays, the rivalry among China's large-language artificial intelligence (AI) model companies has been moving palpably from the underlying technological race to the next pivotal stage - aggressively vying to become the first consumer-facing AI agent that boasts a large number of users in China.

On Sunday, Tencent's AI chatbot app Yuanbao climbed to the No.1 spot among free apps on the Apple App Store, as it launched a Spring Festival red packet campaign on the same day. Under the initiative, the app will distribute up to 1 billion yuan ($144 million) in digital red packets to users, with individual red packets worth as much as 10,000 yuan.

The initiative was initially announced last week. On January 26, Tencent's CEO and founder Pony Ma Huateng said that in launching the campaign, the company "hopes to recreate the success of WeChat's red-packet boom" going back 11 years, news portal thepaper.cn reported. In 2015, the company distributed 500 million yuan in cash red packets via WeChat's "shake" feature during the Spring Festival gala. Through this promotion, it successfully gained a firm foothold in the mobile payment industry.

In a similar move, Chinese tech company Baidu's AI assistant Ernie announced that from January 26 to March 12, people who use Ernie within the Baidu app will have the chance to share 500 million yuan in cash red packets.

Alibaba's Qianwen app will launch a red packet campaign and distribute rewards to users during the Spring Festival holidays. The total amount being offered is expected to reach hundreds of millions of yuan, though the exact figure is still being finalized, news portal jiemian.com reported.

In December, Chinese tech company ByteDance's cloud unit Volcano Engine announced that the company had secured an "exclusive AI cloud partnership" with the Spring Festival Gala, the most-watched annual television event in China.

ByteDance's AI assistant Doubao will roll out a range of interactive features in conjunction with the event.

As 2026 is set to "be the year of AI application," the number of users and usage frequency will become the core in excelling in the white-hot competition, analysts said.

Wang Peng, an associate research fellow at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday that he expected the race in the AI industry this year would move from "AI large models" to "AI ecosystems and AI commercialization." He stressed that the battle for "rising as the next generation of the AI super gateway" is very strategic, as whoever succeeds first in cultivating the habit of "asking AI first" among users will secure a ticket to the next era of the internet ecosystem.

"This is why all the Chinese tech giants are stepping up efforts to build a comprehensive consumer-facing AI agent that deeply integrates their existing ecosystem advantages, such as Baidu's search function, Tencent's social network app WeChat, ByteDance's short-video platform Douyin and Alibaba's e-commerce service," Wang explained.

Tian Feng, president of the Fast Think Institute and former dean of SenseTime's Intelligence Industry Research Institute, told the Global Times on Sunday that the build-up of AI agents could be compared to bridging the "last commercial mile" of large models into broader real-world applications. He predicted that areas such as AI wallet payments, AI shopping assistants, and AI marketing assistants would emerge as key battlegrounds for competition.

This new round of Spring Festival red packet campaigns by internet giants may signal their entry into the competition for a consumer-end AI application super gateway, with the promotions likely to drive sharp increases in downloads and daily active users of Yuanbao, Qianwen, and Ernie, according to a research note from Kaiyuan Securities.

China's AI user base has already become considerable. The number of domestic generative AI users had reached 515 million by June last year—doubling within six months—with a penetration rate of 36.5 percent, according to a report released by the China Internet Network Information Center in October.

While distributing digital red packets could be an efficient way to garner traffic, it remains to be seen whether AI assistant apps will be opened for a second, third, or 10th or 100th time. In other words, do they have the capacity to enhance user stickiness, analysts said.

 该图片可能由AI生成

书名：《AI商业进化论：“人工智能+”赋能新质生产力发展》

出版社：人民邮电出版社

作者：田丰

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