北大经院 | 讲座预告（12.31）

 发展与公共财政工作坊 

主讲人：

Yuan Zi（日内瓦国际关系与发展学院助理教授）

参与老师：

（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威

（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬

（北大光华）张晓波、仇心诚

时间：

2025年12月31日（周三）

10：30-12：00

地点:

北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245教室

主讲人简介：

Yuan Zi is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Graduate Institute of Geneva. She is a research affiliate of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) and a research associate at the University of Oslo. She is also a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Economic Geography and China Economic Review. Her research interests include international trade and economic development, with a special focus on production networks, trade and labor market interactions, and firms in international trade. Her work has been published in leading academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics,Journal of International Economics, and International Economic Review.

摘要:

We provide new evidence that rigid trade and taxation systems, combined with a global decline in silver production triggered by the Spanish American wars of independence, fueled social instability in early nineteenth-century Qing China. Drawing on newly assembled county-level panel data and historical commercial routes, we show that regions farther from Canton—the empire’s sole legal international port—faced sharper silver price increases and higher conflict incidence after the silver shock. We argue that silver taxation was central to this relationship: because taxes were fixed in silver, price increases raised the real tax burden and heightened the risk of unrest. Quantitative estimates indicate that the global silver shock lowered China’s aggregate welfare by 1.1%, with taxation accounting for most of the loss. Counterfactual analysis suggests that opening additional international ports would have made the negative impacts more uneven across regions and hence more politically destabilizing, though the effect was limited. By contrast, fiscal reform emerges as a more critical policy lever for mitigating the adverse consequences of the silver shock.

 国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊 

主讲人：

江深哲（北京大学新结构经济学研究院长聘副教授）

主持老师：

（北大经院）莫家伟

参与老师：

（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋

（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽

（北大国发院）薛思帆

时间：

2025年12月31日（周三）

10:00-11:30

地点：

北京大学经济学院305会议室

主讲人简介：

江深哲，北京大学新结构经济学研究院副院长（教研）、长聘副教授。2017年获美国德克萨斯农工大学经济学博士学位，主要研究领域为宏观经济理论，动态契约理论。主要的研究问题包括：房地产与土地政策、财政政策与基础设施投资、经济发展中的国家策略行为。其研究论文发表在 Economic Journal, International Economic Review，Economic Theory, 《中国社会科学》，《经济学（季刊）》等国际国内一流杂志上。主持国家青年自然科学基金一项、国家自然科学基金面上项目一项。

摘要:

Major innovations often arrive first as high-priced luxuries for the rich and only later become affordable necessities for the poor. Using barcode-level data from the NielsenIQ Homescan Consumer Panel linked to firm-level accounts and patent records from PatentsView, this paper provides evidence on this process and develops a unified framework that connects income inequality, the allocation of innovative effort, and long-run growth. Empirically, we show that within narrowly defined product markets, prices decline over the product life cycle while the spending share of low-income households rises; that firms whose sales are tilted toward richer consumers display much higher patenting per dollar of revenue, in both counts and claim-weighted measures; and that diffusion toward poorer buyers is accompanied by firm entry and declining market concentration. We then build a dynamic general equilibrium model with hierarchical consumption and endogenous firm dynamics that rationalizes these patterns and delivers a new misallocation channel: rising inequality shifts and concentrates R&D toward luxury goods and rich-oriented firms, leaving productivity gains in basic goods underexploited and reducing the contribution of innovation to aggregate growth. Calibrating the model based on U.S. scanner and patent data, we find that the increase in income inequality between the 1970s and the 2010s can almost fully account for the concurrent slowdown in per-capita GDP growth.