Bangladesh: Top Cotton Importer in 2024/25, Second in 2025/26
孟加拉国：2024/25年度棉花进口全球首位，2025/26年度预计位列第二
Bangladesh imported 8.05 million bales of cotton in marketing year 2024/25 (August 2024 – July 2025) making it the top global cotton importer as the textile industry continues to recover from a post-pandemic slowdown. For the past decade, Bangladesh has competed with China for the top importer spot largely depending on whether China made purchases for the state reserve. However, in 2024/25, Vietnam was the second largest cotton importer, less than 100,000 bales below Bangladesh. China only imported 5.19 million bales as above average production stopped state reserve sales and limited demand for imported supplies.
在2024/25年度（2024年8月至2025年7月），孟加拉国进口了805万包棉花，成为全球最大的棉花进口国，这标志着其纺织业正从疫情后的低迷中持续复苏。过去十年间，孟加拉国与中国一直争夺最大进口国地位，这很大程度上取决于中国是否进行国家储备采购。然而，在2024/25年度，越南成为第二大棉花进口国，与孟加拉国的差距不到10万包。中国仅进口了519万包，原因是高于平均水平的产量使其暂停了国储销售，并降低了对进口棉的需求。
The United States only captured 7 percent of the price-sensitive Bangladesh cotton import market in 2024/25, despite covering 28 percent of global cotton trade. U.S. cotton is less competitive in Bangladesh due to higher cost and longer transit time from U.S. warehouses compared to other origins that are warehoused in Asia or sold while in transit. African countries accounted for 41 percent of exports to Bangladesh in 2024/25, led by Benin, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, and Mali. Brazil captured 25 percent market share and India accounted for 15 percent.
尽管美国棉花占全球贸易总量的28%，但其在2024/25年度仅占据了价格敏感的孟加拉国棉花进口市场7%的份额。相较于储存在亚洲或可在运输途中销售的其他产地棉花，美国棉花因成本较高及从美国仓库运输时间较长，在孟加拉国市场竞争力较弱。2024/25年度，非洲国家占孟加拉国进口总量的41%，主要供应国包括贝宁、喀麦隆、布基纳法索和马里。巴西占据25%的市场份额，印度占15%。
The ready-made garment sector is the main consumer of imported cotton in Bangladesh, and it also imports significant quantities of cotton yarn and fabric. The sector is an important component of the Bangladesh economy especially in terms of employment generation and exports. Compared to other apparel manufacturing countries, Bangladesh benefits from a skilled workforce, low labor and input costs, and duty-free access to major markets.1 As a result, Bangladesh is one of the largest exporters of cotton products with the largest share of exports destined for the European Union.
成衣业是孟加拉国进口棉花的主要消费领域，同时也大量进口棉纱和棉布。该行业是孟加拉国经济的重要支柱，尤其在创造就业和出口方面。相较于其他服装制造国，孟加拉国拥有技术熟练的劳动力、较低的劳工与原料成本，以及对主要市场的免税准入优势。因此，孟加拉国已成为最大的棉制品出口国之一，其出口产品最大份额流向欧盟市场。
Looking forward to 2025/26, Vietnam and Bangladesh are expected to continue competing for the top global importer spot with Vietnam imports forecast only slightly above Bangladesh. While both countries face similar tariffs from the United States, Bangladesh could benefit from being more reliant on the EU market where it has duty-free access until at least 2029. However, the readymade garment industry in Bangladesh also faces challenges from foreign currency shortages, political and social unrest, and energy shortages that could limit future growth potential as it attempts to remain competitive in the textile and ready-made garment industries.
展望2025/26年度，越南和孟加拉国预计将继续争夺全球最大进口国地位，越南的进口量预计仅略高于孟加拉国。尽管两国面临来自美国的类似关税，但孟加拉国可能因其对欧盟市场的更高依赖而获益——该国至少在2029年前享有对欧盟的免税准入待遇。然而，孟加拉国的成衣行业也面临外汇短缺、政治社会动荡及能源短缺等挑战，这些因素可能制约其未来增长潜力，影响其在纺织和成衣行业保持竞争力的努力。
2025/26 Outlook
2025/26 年展望
Global production is lowered nearly 300,000 bales to 119.8 million as smaller crops in Mali and other West African countries more than offset a larger U.S. crop.
全球棉花产量下调近30万包，降至1.198亿包，主要因马里等西非国家减产的影响超过了美国产量的增长。
Global trade is lowered nearly 300,000 bales to 43.7 million. Lower exports by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Cote d’Ivoire more than offset higher exports from Egypt. Bangladesh and Vietnam imports are both lowered by 100,000 bales.
全球棉花贸易量下调近30万包，降至4370万包。马里、布基纳法索和科特迪瓦的出口减少，其影响超过了埃及出口的增长。孟加拉国和越南的进口量均下调了10万包。
Global consumption is forecast down nearly 300,000 bales to 118.6 million on 100,000-bale reductions in Brazil and U.S. consumption as well as multiple smaller reductions in Central America. U.S. mill use is forecast at 1.6 million bales, the lowest in nearly 150 years. Global ending stocks are raised slightly to 76.0 million bales as higher ending stocks in the United States and Brazil more than offset lower ending stocks in Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mali.
全球棉花消费量预计下调近30万包，降至1.186亿包，主要因巴西和美国消费量各减少10万包，同时中美洲多国消费量亦有小幅下调。美国国内工厂用棉量预计为160万包，为近150年来最低水平。全球期末库存微增至7600万包，因美国和巴西期末库存的增加超过了越南、孟加拉国和马里的库存降幅。
The U.S. season-average farm price for 2025/26 is forecast down 2 cents to 60 cents per pound.
2025/26年度美国棉花季度平均农场价格预计下调2美分，至每磅60美分。
文章来源（USDA），仅供参考。盘面影响因素较多（宏观、供需、情绪、产业套保套利、量化等），天气仅是众多因素中的一个，切勿据此买卖。期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。