Argentina Soybean Exports to Rise while Products Slip
阿根廷大豆出口增长，豆制品出口下滑
Argentina soybean exports in 2025/26 (October – September) are forecast at 8.3 million tons, the highest in 6 years, driven in part by several adjustments to export taxes in the past year (see Post report1 ). The most impactful was September’s temporary elimination of export taxes on several agricultural products, removing the 26 percent soy and 24.5 percent soybean meal and soybean oil taxes until the end of October, or until export sales declarations for all affected products reached a $7 billion cap. This cap was reached in only 3 days and resulted in over 3.0 million additional tons of soybean export sales registered for Argentina’s 2024/25 local year (April 2025 – March 2026). Most of these sales were registered for delivery between October and December 2025.
预计阿根廷2025/26年度（10月至次年9月）大豆出口量将达到830万吨，为6年来最高水平，这在一定程度上得益于过去一年多次的出口税调整（见驻地报告1）。其中影响最大的是9月对多种农产品出口税的临时取消，即在10月底前或受影响产品出口申报额达到70亿美元上限前，免征大豆26%以及豆粕和豆油24.5%的出口税。该额度上限仅在3天内即告用尽，推动阿根廷2024/25本地产季（2025年4月至2026年3月）大豆出口登记量额外增加了逾300万吨。这些新增销售大多登记在2025年10月至12月期间交付。
Argentina soybean meal exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 29.0 million tons, while soybean oil exports are forecast at 6.2 million tons. Export volumes for both products are expected to be higher than most years on record but less than 2024/25. This is a consequence of lower expected soybean production, down 2.6 million tons year over year to 48.5 million, but also fewer soybeans available for domestic crushing from October to March before supplies are replenished by the 2025/26 harvest. October 1 soybean stocks are estimated at 23.1 million tons, the second lowest at this point in over 10 years behind drought-impacted 2023.
预计2025/26年度阿根廷豆粕出口量为2900万吨，豆油出口量为620万吨。尽管这两种产品出口量预计仍将高于多数历史纪录，但会低于2024/25年度。这主要由于大豆预期产量同比下降260万吨至4850万吨，且在2025/26年度新作收获补充供应前，10月至次年3月期间可供国内压榨的大豆数量减少。10月1日的大豆库存估计为2310万吨，是过去十余年来同期第二低水平，仅高于受干旱影响的2023年。
Domestic soybean availability through March is further limited by the unseasonably strong soybean exports expected due to the export tax elimination. October exports were a robust 1.7 million tons, and an additional 2.8 million are expected through March. Imports will provide an important supply boost, with 3.5 million tons expected from October to March and 7.7 million total in 2025/26. Argentina generally imports its largest volumes from Paraguay and Brazil after their harvests, starting in February. Given this, crush is expected to slow in the coming months.
由于出口税取消导致的大豆出口超常强劲，进一步限制了截至次年3月的国内大豆可用量。10月出口量已达170万吨，预计到次年3月还将增加280万吨。进口将提供重要的供应补充，预计10月至次年3月期间将进口350万吨，整个2025/26年度总进口量预计为770万吨。阿根廷通常自2月起从已收获的巴拉圭和巴西进口大部分大豆。鉴于此，预计未来数月国内压榨进度将放缓。
OVERVIEW 2025/26
2025/26年度概览
The global oilseeds production forecast is raised this month on Canada and Australia rapeseed and Nigeria peanut production, more than offsetting lower sunflowerseed in Ukraine and Russia. Global oilseeds trade is increased on higher Canada and Australia rapeseed exports, more than offsetting lower Ukraine soybean exports. Global crush is down on lower Ukraine and Russia sunflowerseed, not offset by higher Canada and Russia rapeseed crush. Global oilseeds stocks increased on higher Canada rapeseed carryout. Global protein meal trade is lowered by reduced Ukraine and Russia sunflowerseed meal exports. Global vegetable oil trade is lowered on Ukraine and Russia sunflowerseed oil exports, not outweighed by higher Russia rapeseed oil and China soybean oil exports. Vegetable oil stocks are largely unchanged as losses in palm and sunflowerseed oil carryout were largely offset by gains in soybean, rapeseed, and palm kernel oil carryout.
本月全球油籽产量预测因加拿大和澳大利亚的油菜籽产量及尼日利亚花生产量上调而上调，其增幅超过了乌克兰和俄罗斯葵花籽产量下降的影响。全球油籽贸易量因加拿大和澳大利亚油菜籽出口增加而上调，其增幅超过了乌克兰大豆出口下降的影响。全球压榨量因乌克兰和俄罗斯葵花籽压榨量减少而下调，加拿大和俄罗斯油菜籽压榨量的增加未能完全抵消此降幅。全球油籽库存因加拿大油菜籽期末库存增加而上升。全球蛋白粕贸易量因乌克兰和俄罗斯葵花籽粕出口减少而下调。全球植物油贸易量因乌克兰和俄罗斯葵花籽油出口减少而下调，俄罗斯菜籽油和中国豆油出口的增加未能完全抵消此降幅。植物油库存总体保持稳定，因大豆油、菜籽油和棕榈仁油期末库存的增加很大程度上抵消了棕榈油和葵花籽油期末库存的下降。
The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at $10.50 per bushel.
美国大豆季度平均农场预计价格保持不变，仍为每蒲式耳10.50美元。
文章来源（USDA)，仅供参考。盘面影响因素较多（宏观、供需、情绪、产业套保套利、量化等），天气仅是众多因素中的一个，切勿据此买卖。期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。