【新刊速递】《华盛顿季刊》（WQ）, Vol. 48, No. 1, 2025 | 国政学人

题目：Nervous Allies and Trump: Nuclear Lessons from NATO

作者：Richard K. Betts，哥伦比亚大学政治学系利奥·A·希弗林战争与和平研究名誉教授，曾任哥伦比亚大学国际与公共事务学院国际安全政策项目主任，以及萨尔兹曼战争与和平研究所所长。

题目：The New Nuclear Sufficiency and Risk Reduction

作者：Heather W. Williams，战略与国际研究中心核问题项目主任和国防与安全部高级研究员。

摘要：美国的战略态势即将发生变化。拜登政府在上任之初曾经寻求减少对核武器依赖的举措，包括可能改变美国的宣示性政策、多次尝试与俄罗斯和中国进行军备控制，以及取消海基巡航导弹的计划。但由于安全环境的持续恶化，特别是中国的核力量扩张以及俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上的核威慑，这些举措偏离了原有轨道。2023年由两党共同组成的“战略态势委员会”（Strategic Posture Commission）奠定了美国应对策略的基础。该委员会得出结论称，美国当前的核现代化计划——包括替换核三位一体中的陆基、空基与海基投送系统——虽然是“必要的，但是还不足以”应对新的战略挑战。

A change is coming to America’s strategic posture. The Biden administration came into office seeking initiatives that would reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, including a potential change to America’s declaratory policy, repeated attempts to engage Russia and China in arms control, and plans to cancel a sea-launched cruise missile. But because of the worsening security environment—particularly China’s nuclear buildup and Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling in Ukraine—those initiatives were thrown off course. The bipartisan 2023 Strategic Posture Commission set the stage for the U.S. response by concluding that America’s current modernization plans—including replacement of all three legs of the nuclear triad’s land-, air-, and sea-based delivery systems—were "necessary, but not sufficient" to meet new strategic challenges.

题目：Modernizing US Indian Ocean Strategy

作者：Peter Dean，悉尼大学美国研究中心外交政策与国防主任，曾担任西澳大学首任国防研究系主任；Michael Green，悉尼大学美国研究中心教授兼首席执行官；Alice Nason，悉尼大学美国研究中心非常驻研究员。

摘要：为反映印度洋地区日益增长的战略竞争可能性，五角大楼在2010年发布的《四年防务评估报告》中建议国家安全委员会制定一项“跨军方与民间机构的区域整合战略”。尽管美国政府从未制定过这样的一体化战略，但是美国及其重要海上盟友（如日本和澳大利亚）在思考该地区问题时应当秉持的优先事项，已由本文作者之一迈克尔·格林（Michael Green）与安德鲁·希勒（Andrew Shearer）在此前一期《华盛顿季刊》中提出。该文强调了印度洋对美国同盟体系的重要意义，主要体现在以下三个方面：（a）为海湾或东亚突发事件提供纵深防御；（b）实现中东与东亚之间部队的调动；（c）保障对日本、韩国等美国盟友以及中国本身至关重要的海上能源运输线。作者指出，在该地区陷入激烈战略竞争之前，美国对印度洋的政策应当以这些基本而持久的优先事项为指导。

To reflect the growing potential for contestation of the Indian Ocean, the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review recommended that the National Security Council develop an “integrated approach to the region across military and civilian organizations.” That was in 2010.Footnote1 Though the US government has never produced that integrated strategy, the priorities that should shape thinking about the region by the United States and its key maritime allies like Japan and Australia were proposed by this essay’s coauthor Michael Green and Andrew Shearer in a previous issue of The Washington Quarterly.Footnote2 That article highlighted the importance of the Indian Ocean to the American alliances for: (a) maintaining defense in depth for contingencies in the Gulf or East Asia; (b) transiting forces between the Middle East and East Asia; and (c) facilitating crucial maritime energy supply lines for US allies like Japan or Korea and for China itself. The authors argued that these basic, enduring priorities should guide the US approach toward strategic challenges in the Indian Ocean before the region became dangerously contested.

题目：A US Strategy for Advancing EU Enlargement

作者：Nicholas Lokker，新美国安全中心（CNAS）跨大西洋安全项目的研究员。

摘要：2014年，时任欧盟委员会主席Jean-Claude Juncker曾宣布欧盟东扩将暂停。如今，这一暂停已经结束。2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，欧盟开始着手填补其边缘地区的地缘政治真空。欧盟已经放弃了此前对东部邻国的战略模糊性，已启动与乌克兰和摩尔多瓦的入盟谈判，并给予格鲁吉亚候选资格。欧盟扩张的新势头已蔓延至西巴尔干地区，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那（波黑）也已获得入盟谈判的批准，北马其顿和阿尔巴尼亚也已正式启动入盟谈判。

In 2014, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker famously declared a pause in the European Union's enlargement. This pause is now over, after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine spurred the bloc to fill geopolitical vacuums along its periphery. Abandoning former strategic ambiguity toward its Eastern neighborhood, the European Union has opened accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and granted candidacy to Georgia. EU enlargement's new momentum has spilled over into the Western Balkans, where Bosnia-Herzegovina has likewise received the green light for negotiations and North Macedonia and Albania have formally begun them.

题目：A Neglected Region? The Strategic Value of the South Atlantic

作者：Zeno Leoni，伦敦国王学院国防研究系讲师；Joao Vitor Tossini，国王学院国防研究系的客座研究员；William de Sousa Moreira，巴西海军战争学院（BNWC）的教授；Sarah Tzinieris，伦敦国王学院战争研究系安全研究教育讲师。

摘要：2021年3月，一艘名为“长赐号”（Ever Given）的大型集装箱船在苏伊士运河搁浅，导致这一全球最繁忙的航运通道之一被阻塞近一周。据报道，这次延误使全球贸易受阻的金额高达约1000亿美元。尽管此类事件相对罕见，并不构成对全球贸易的结构性威胁，但它凸显了商业海上航线的脆弱性，以及全球各大海洋区域（即“海洋秩序”）之间的高度互联性。在这些海洋秩序中，印太地区和南大西洋是最为重要的两大海洋秩序，承担着全球海运货物的绝大部分运输任务，而海运的运量远远超过陆运和空运。然而，由于人们关注印度洋-太平洋地区海洋秩序，南大西洋对全球和平与繁荣的核心地位往往被忽视。此处所说的“南大西洋”，是指赤道以南、非洲与南美洲之间的大西洋区域，该地区约有80个国家（包括阿根廷、巴西、尼日利亚和南非等重要经济体）属于全球南方国家。作为世界另一关键的海洋秩序，南大西洋是地球上四分之三海洋面积中不可分割的一部分。它还包括两个高度战略性的航道：巴拿马运河和好望角。就现实而言，它们是连接印度洋与太平洋之间往来的唯一通道。

In March 2021, a colossal container ship named Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes for almost a week. It was reported that the delay held up some $10 billion USD in global trade.Footnote1 Although an incident like this is relatively rare and does not pose a structural threat to global trade, it highlights the fragility of commercial maritime routes, and how interconnected the world’s maritime regions—also known as maritime orders—are. Of these, the Indo-Pacific and the South Atlantic are the most significant maritime orders, transporting the vast bulk of global sea freight, which notably surpasses both land and air freight by a wide margin. Yet with all the focus on the Indo-Pacific maritime regional order, the South Atlantic’s centrality to global peace and prosperity is often neglected. By “South Atlantic,” we are referring to those areas of the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and South America below the equator, and whose roughly eighty countries—including important economies like Argentina, Brazil, Nigeria, and South Africa—are part of the Global South. As the world’s other key maritime order, the South Atlantic represents an indivisible component of the three-quarters of the planet that is covered by water. It also includes two highly strategic passageways—the Panama Canal and Cape Hope—which provide, in practical terms, the only access to and from the Indian and Pacific oceans.

作者：Evan S. Medeiros，乔治城大学沃尔什外交学院彭纳家族亚洲研究讲席教授，也是克林家族美中研究杰出研究员；Andrew Polk，战略与国际研究中心 （Center for Strategic and International Studies ,CSIS）高级研究员（非常驻），弗里曼中国研究讲席教授。

作者：Sheena Chestnut Greitens，德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校林登·约翰逊公共事务学院的副教授。

作者：Michael D. Swaine，昆西·罗素大学东亚项目的高级研究员。

审校 | 赖永祯、张潇文

排版 | 陈思妍