2024/25 China Cotton Imports Fall to 8-year Low
2024/25年度中国棉花进口量降至八年新低
2024/25 China imports are forecast at the lowest level in 8 years at 5.5 million bales, roughly one-third the volume last year. Several factors have pressured demand: the highest domestic production in nearly a decade, lower consumption, and less demand for government reserves.
2024/25年度中国棉花进口量预计骤降至550万包（约合上年规模的三分之一），创8年来最低水平。多重因素抑制进口需求：国内产量升至近十年高位、消费量缩减、国储棉需求减弱。
2024/25 production is estimated nearly 4.7 million bales higher to 32.0 million on record yields in the Xinjiang autonomous region. Meanwhile, consumption is projected to fall nearly 2.0 million bales to 37.0 million. At the start of the marketing year, the volume of foreign cotton in bonded warehouses was at the second highest level for data going back to 2015; therefore, plentiful supplies coupled with lower operating rates have driven down imports.
由于新疆自治区单产创纪录，2024/25年度中国棉花产量预估大幅上调470万包至3200万包。而消费量预计减少200万包至3700万包。在销售年度初期，保税区外棉库存量创2015年以来次高，充足的供应叠加开工率下降共同导致进口萎缩。
China Domestic Cotton Consumption Rises
中国国内棉花消费量回升
With China’s State Reserve not auctioning reserve supplies this marketing year, imports are expected to fall due to less need to replenish stocks. Government reserves are currently estimated at a 7-year high after the surge in purchases witnessed last year and the absence of a State Reserve sales program. Last year, imports allocated to government warehouses were estimated at roughly one-third of the 15.0 million bales of imports, vastly contrasting with nearly zero imports for 2024/25.
由于本销售年度中国国储棉暂停拍卖，补库需求减弱导致进口量预期下降。去年国储棉收购量激增且未启动抛储计划，当前政府储备预估已达七年高位。去年进口棉中约三分之一（总量1500万包中的500万包）进入国储仓库，而2024/25年度国储棉进口量预计近乎为零。
In 2025/26, production is projected to fall 2.0 million bales to 30.0 million while consumption is mostly unchanged at around 37.0 million bales. 2025/26 imports are forecast to rise 1.0 million bales to 6.5 million to fill the gap of both lower production and lower foreign cotton in consignment at the start of the marketing year. With reserve auctions typically starting in August and July (prior to harvest) and summer weather influencing crop conditions, the next 3 months will be significant in influencing next year’s imports.
2025/26年度，中国棉花产量预计减少200万包至3000万包，消费量则基本稳定在3700万包左右。为弥补产量下降及销售年度初期外棉寄售量不足的缺口，2025/26年度进口量预计回升100万包至650万包。鉴于国储拍卖通常于新棉上市前的7-8月启动，且夏季天气将影响作物生长，未来三个月将成为决定下年度进口规模的关键期。
2025/26 Outlook
2025/26年度展望
Global production is forecast down 800,000 bales to 117.0 million as smaller crops in India, Pakistan, and the United States more than offset a larger crop in China. India production is forecast down 1.0 million bales to a 17-year low at 23.5 million, due to lower area harvested. In the United States, production is lowered 500,000 bales to 14.0 million on lower area harvested and yield.
全球棉花产量预测下调80万包至1.17亿包，因印度、巴基斯坦和美国减产幅度超过中国增产。印度产量预估减少100万包至2350万包（创17年新低），主要由于种植面积缩减。美国产量因单产和面积双降而调减50万包至1400万包。
Global trade is unchanged at 44.8 million bales. India exports are projected down 500,000 bales to 1.0 million, the lowest level in over 20 years. This is mostly offset by higher exports from Brazil and Australia. China imports are forecast down 500,000 bales to 6.5 million due to production rising 1.0 million to 30.0 million. Greater import demand in Egypt and Pakistan more than offset lower China imports.
全球贸易量维持4480万包不变。印度出口量预计减少50万包至100万包（20多年来最低水平），但巴西和澳大利亚出口增加基本抵消该减量。中国因产量提升100万包至3000万包，进口量下调50万包至650万包。埃及和巴基斯坦进口需求增长完全覆盖了中国进口减量。
Global consumption is forecast down 300,000 bales to 117.8 million on lower supplies but remains the highest level in 5 years. Global ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million bales to 76.8 million on lower production and beginning stocks in the United States.
全球消费量因供应收紧下调30万包至1.178亿包，仍处五年高位。由于美国产量及期初库存下降，全球期末库存减少160万包至7680万包。
The U.S. season-average farm price for 2025/26 is unchanged at 62 cents per pound.
2025/26年度美国棉花农场季节平均价格维持每磅62美分不变。
2024/25 Outlook
2024/25年度概述
Production is forecast down more than 1.0 million bales this month to 119.9 million on a smaller India crop. Consumption is mostly unchanged at 116.5 million as higher consumption in Egypt and Vietnam somewhat offset lower-than-expected spinning in India. Global exports are forecast higher on a 400,000-bale increase to U.S. exports that more than offsets small reductions to Australia and Argentina. Lower China imports more than offset greater demand from Egypt. Global ending stocks are reduced more than 1.1 million to 77.3 million on lower inventories for China, India, and the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price is forecast unchanged at 63 cents per pound.
本月全球棉花产量预测下调超100万包至1.199亿包，主因印度减产。消费量基本维持在1.165亿包不变——埃及和越南消费增长部分抵消了印度纺纱需求不及预期的影响。全球出口量预估上调，因美国出口增加40万包，完全覆盖澳大利亚和阿根廷的小幅减量。中国进口下降幅度超过埃及需求增量。由于中国、印度和美国库存减少，全球期末库存调降逾110万包至7730万包。2025/26年度美国棉花农场季节平均价格预测维持每磅63美分不变。
文章来源（USDA），仅供参考。盘面影响因素较多（宏观、供需、情绪、产业套保套利、量化等），天气仅是众多因素中的一个，切勿据此买卖。期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。