【新刊速递】《生存》(Survival), Vol.67, No.2, 2025 | 国政学人

题目：Alliance of Revisionists: A New Era for the Transatlantic Relationship

作者：Sophia Besch，卡内基国际和平基金会欧洲项目高级研究员；Tara Varma，布鲁金斯学会美国和欧洲中心访问学者。

摘要：跨大西洋联盟正在发生变化。本文认为唐纳德·特朗普的第二任期以及欧洲右翼主义政党的崛起，可能会开启一个修正主义跨大西洋主义的新纪元。大西洋两岸的修正主义者，无论是在他们自己的国家，还是在像欧盟这样的多边制度中，都将自由跨国精英视为共同的敌人，他们中的许多人对北约也抱有怀疑态度，并愿意接受俄罗斯的要求。尽管存在巨大的冲突可能，但双方都能从合作中受益。他们可以共同努力，就将美国与欧洲团结在一起的价值与利益重新协商，并在此过程中瓦解欧洲计划。

The transatlantic alliance is changing. This article argues that Donald Trump’s second term, together with the rise of right-wing populist parties in Europe, may usher in a new era of revisionist transatlanticism. Revisionists on both sides of the Atlantic have identified a common enemy in the liberal transnational elite, both in their own countries and in multilateral institutions like the European Union. Many of them are also sceptical of NATO and amenable to Russian demands. Notwithstanding the significant potential for conflict, both sides stand to benefit from cooperation. Together, they could work to renegotiate the values and interests that unify the United States and Europe, and, in the process, dismantle the European project.

题目：The End of Illusion: Why Europe Needs Independence from the United States

作者：Stephen Wertheim，卡内基国际和平基金会美国治国方略项目高级研究员。

摘要：几十年来，美国并没有认真致力于欧洲的防御。冷战结束后，美国仍然是北约的主导力量，并支持联盟东扩。但美国领导人预计，美国的成本和风险将保持极低水平。他们更倾向于将问题视而不见，而不是决定新盟友是否受到袭击就值得被保护。既然欧洲的安全环境已经恶化，美国的单极性也不复存在，因此北约必须改变。因为欧洲拥有超过俄罗斯的资源，并且比美国更有兴趣捍卫自身领土，所以它应该具备并承担起自我防卫的能力。欧洲各国应该计划在未来十年内取代欧洲大部分美国军事人员和基础设施。特朗普政府应该留在北约，帮助那些站出来的欧洲盟友，并鼓励欧洲建立其国防工业基础。

America has not been seriously committed to the defence of Europe for many decades. After the Cold War, the US remained the leading power in NATO and championed the Alliance’s eastward enlargement. But American leaders expected that the costs and risks to the US would remain extremely low. Rather than decide that new allies were worth defending if attacked, they largely wished the problem away. Now that Europe’s security environment has deteriorated and America’s unipolarity is gone, NATO must change. Because Europe has the resources to outmatch Russia and a greater interest in defending its territory than the US does, it should become capable of and responsible for defending itself. European countries should plan to replace most US military personnel and infrastructure in Europe over the next decade. The Trump administration should stay in NATO, help European allies that step up, and encourage Europe to build its defence-industrial base.

题目：Managing Divergence: The Transatlantic Economic Future

作者：Matthias Matthijs，约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院国际政治经济学副教授兼外交关系委员会欧洲高级研究员；Matthew P. Goodman，外交关系委员会格林伯格地缘经济研究中心主任、研究员。

摘要：美国和欧盟即将从2025年开始走上截然不同的国内和国际经济道路。尽管雄心勃勃的贸易和投资协议在2010年代中期已经被搁置，但唐纳德·特朗普在2025年重返白宫预示着一个新的跨大西洋贸易、投资、税收、监管和气候政策分歧的时代。经济分歧可能会加速，双方关系可能会降温，美国的增长率将高于欧盟。欧盟若采纳2024年莱塔与德拉吉报告提出的改革建议，或许能打破现有格局，但实现可能性较低——尤其是当乌克兰实现停火将降低改革的紧迫性时。“经济安全”是跨大西洋合作的一个潜在且具有前景的领域——尽管仍充满挑战——由于中国带来的挑战是共同面临的，双方都可能意识到共同努力应对这一挑战是互利的。

The United States and the European Union are poised to follow radically different domestic and international economic paths starting in 2025. While ambitious trade and investment agreements had already been buried by the mid-2010s, the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 heralds a new era of transatlantic discord over trade, investment, taxation, regulation and climate policy. Economic divergence will likely accelerate and relations cool, with higher growth rates in the US than in the EU. The EU’s implementation of the recommendations of the 2024 Letta and Draghi reports could upend this pattern, but this is unlikely, especially if a potential ceasefire in Ukraine reduces the urgency for reform. ‘Economic security’ is a potentially promising – though still fraught – area of transatlantic cooperation, as the challenge from China is a joint one and both sides could come to see a shared effort to manage it as mutually advantageous.