达里奥最新：中美能够推动一场美丽的再平衡！

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2025-04-26 11:24价值线财经官方账号

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A US-China Beautiful Rebalancing

中美良性再平衡的可能性

I was pleased and not surprised that the US and China will be having “tariff negotiations,” which will be negotiations on much more than trade. In my dreams, I can imagine the US and China working out a beautiful rebalancing—one in which the unsustainable excesses are reduced to levels that are sustainable.

以下为桥水基金创始人达里奥最新讲话，得知中美即将展开“关税谈判”，

我感到欣慰，却并不意外。

事实上，这将远不止是一次关于贸易的磋商。

在我的设想中，理想的结果是，中美能够推动一场美丽的再平衡，将当前不可持续的过度失衡，调整至可持续的水平。

The Problems and the Solutions

To review, as a result of many factors that I won’t digress into again, this is the dynamic I see:

Americans (and others) buy inexpensive manufactured goods from China that are financed by the United States borrowing from China (and others)…
And in the process, the United States has lost its ability to manufacture effectively, which has contributed to the plight of the bottom 60%, while it has developed a geopolitically threatening dependence on manufactured goods from China (and other countries)…
At the same time, China (and other countries) has developed an unhealthy, excessive dependence on the returns of US debt assets (and other American capital market assets).

回顾过往，由于诸多因素（在此不再赘述），

我所观察到的动态大致如下：

1. 美国（以及其他国家）通过借债，从中国（以及其他国家）大量购买价廉物美的制成品……在这一过程中，美国逐渐丧失了有效制造的能力，这不仅加剧了底层六成人口的困境，还令美国在地缘政治上对中国产品（及其他国家）形成了危险的依赖……

2. 与此同时，中国（以及其他国家）则过度依赖于持有美国债务资产（及其他美国资本市场资产）所带来的回报，这种依赖亦已走向不健康的极致。

3. 这一失衡结构本质上是不可持续的，不论是通过协调管理的方式，还是通过突发性崩溃的方式，它终将走向终结。

4. 换句话说，正是由于这些过度累积，美国成为了全球最大的消费者与借款方，催生了外国对向美国销售商品和依赖美国债券及其他投资回报的病态依赖；而中国则成为了全球最大的制造者与贷方，同样在向外销售和对外投资中建立了不可持续的依赖。

5. 在一个互相依赖日益被视为威胁的世界中，这种格局无疑带来了系统性风险，因此必须加以修正。

The US needs to:

Cut the deficit
Raise manufacturing
Cut consumption
Reduce its debt burden

China needs to:

Cut the surplus
Lower manufacturing
Raise consumption
Reduce its debt burden

针对这一局面，需要做些什么？

美国需要：1）缩减财政赤字；2）恢复制造业能力；3）抑制消费过度；4）降低债务负担

中国需要：1）缩减经常账户盈余；2）控制制造业扩张；3）提升国内消费；4）降低债务负担

在思考如何最优地推动这些调整时，必须认识到，每个国家都有其独特的国内问题需要考量，同时也拥有足够的工具来妥善管理这一转型；

两国对经济的管理逻辑亦存在显著差异——美国的生产主要由追逐利润的自由市场主体驱动，而中国的生产则主要由政府，尤其是地方，为追求产出规模而主导。

这意味着，只要双方合作得当、决策有力，就完全有可能以有序的方式，实现对这些不可持续失衡的深度修正。

由于双方合作可以通过多种方式实现一次美丽的再平衡，此处暂不一一展开探讨。

Because there are many ways that both sides working together can engineer a beautiful rebalancing, I won’t explore the possibilities now. I will just emphasize my main point, which is that this rebalancing, which is especially important given what the new world order is like, can and needs to happen in an orderly way, and the most important three questions are:

1) will the two sides work well together to engineer big reductions in these imbalances so they take place in the least disruptive way possible,

2) how will a deal be enforced, and

3) will this deal be adhered to? The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of Bridgewater.

我想强调的核心观点是：

在新的世界秩序下，这场再平衡不仅有可能，而且极为必要，且必须以有序方式进行。

而最重要的三个问题是：第一，双方是否能紧密合作，有效地大幅削减这些失衡，从而以尽可能温和的方式推进调整；第二，协议达成后，如何确保有效执行；第三，双方是否能够真正遵守约定。