全球棉花市场月报丨埃及棉花消费激增，助推进口创历史新高

Rising Egypt Cotton Consumption Fuels Record Imports

埃及棉花消费激增助推进口创历史新高

Egypt cotton consumption is projected at 750,000 bales in marketing year 2024/25 (August 2024 – July 2025), the highest level in 14 years, driven by a new wave of public and private investment. Imports are forecast at a record 675,000 bales to meet the demand of rising consumption since domestic production has stagnated over the past decade. 

2024/25销售年度（2024年8月-2025年7月），埃及棉花消费量预计达75万包，创14年来新高，主要受新一轮公私投资推动。由于国内产量近十年停滞，为满足激增的消费需求，埃及棉花进口量预计将达67.5万包，刷新历史纪录。

Egypt has historically been a prominent producer and consumer of cotton but now consumes less than half the peak volume reached in 1992/93. In recent years, the government has revitalized the industry by investing more than $1.1 billion in the state-owned textile company as part of a plan to use more cotton domestically rather than export it.1 The government also adopted policies to incentivize foreign investment such as establishing the Suez Canal Economic Zone with lower taxes and a pro-business environment.

埃及历史上曾是重要的棉花生产与消费国，但目前消费量不足1992/93年度峰值水平的一半。近年来，政府为振兴产业向国有纺织公司注资超11亿美元，推动棉花优先满足国内需求而非出口。同时埃及通过设立苏伊士运河经济区等政策吸引外资，该区域以低税率和亲商环境为特色。

Foreign companies are also drawn to Egypt by lower labor and energy costs and proximity to the EU market, the second largest importer of cotton products. In the past year, foreign investment from China totaled approximately $1 billion covering all stages of textile production.2 Multiple Turkish textile companies have also recently announced plans to build new spinning mills in Egypt. As additional spinning capacity from public and private investments materializes over the next few years, Egypt cotton consumption is projected to rise. Egypt has already jumped from the 16th largest cotton consumer last year to tie for 13th in 2024/25, if current forecasts are realized.

外资企业被埃及较低的劳动力与能源成本及毗邻欧盟市场（全球第二大棉花制品进口地）的优势所吸引。过去一年中国对埃及纺织全产业链投资总额约10亿美元，土耳其多家纺织公司也宣布将在埃及新建纺纱厂。随着未来几年公私投资推动新增纺纱产能落地，埃及棉花消费量预计持续攀升，若当前预测实现，其消费排名将从去年全球第16位跃升至2024/25年度并列第13位。

Egypt has relied on imports to support increasing consumption as domestic production stagnated in recent years and the government more than doubled the guaranteed farm price in 2024/25 despite falling global prices. 3 According to Egypt’s Cotton Arbitration & Testing General Organization (CATGO), just 50,000 bales of domestic cotton have been distributed to local mills so far this marketing year, roughly equal to recent years, despite higher consumption. This contradicts the government’s intention to redirect domestically produced cotton from exports to local mills. 

埃及近年依赖进口支撑不断增长的消费需求，尽管国内产量停滞且20225年度政府将棉花保证收购价提高逾一倍，但全球棉价持续走低。根据埃及棉花仲裁与检测总局（CATGO）数据，本销售年度迄今仅向本土纺织厂分配了5万包国产棉，与近年水平基本持平，但消费量已显著攀升，这与政府将国产棉从出口转向本地工厂的意图相悖。

Greece is the principal source for Egypt cotton imports, accounting for more than half of market share during the past decade. The United States has historically been a top supplier with Pima cotton serving as a substitute for Egyptian extra-long staple (ELS) varieties while West African and Sudanese supplies have met the demand for more affordable upland cotton. 

希腊是埃及棉花进口主要来源国，过去十年间市场份额占比超半数。美国长期作为埃及重要供应国，其比马棉（Pima Cotton）可作为埃及特长绒棉（ELS）替代品，非地区与苏丹的棉花供应则满足了埃及对价格更低的陆地棉（Upland Cotton）需求。

In 2023/24, Brazil became the second largest supplier after gaining market access in 2022/2023. In the first 7 months of 2024/25, Brazil export volume tripled compared to the same period last year as it continues to offer a lower price compared with competitors. Brazil remains the second largest supplier this year behind Greece which has seen less dramatic but still notable growth of 60 percent year over year. As a result of this growth from top suppliers, Egypt cotton imports are forecast at a record 675,000 bales in 2024/25. In contrast, U.S. cotton has lost market share to more affordable suppliers. FAS Export Sales Reporting shows sales of less than 1,000 bales of upland cotton for 2024/25, compared to the 10- year average of nearly 50,000 bales. This reflects Egypt’s expansion from a niche supplier of specialty cotton products to a more significant textile producer that competes on price with other textile producing countries.

2023/24年度，巴西在2022/2023年获得市场准入后成为埃及第二大棉花供应国。2024/25年度的前七个月，巴西出口量同比激增三倍，持续以低于竞争对手的价格优势抢占市场。尽管希腊仍以60%的同比增长率稳居埃及棉花进口首位，但巴西紧随其后保持第二大供应国地位。受主要供应国增长推动，埃及2024/25年度棉花进口达创纪录的67.5万包。与此同时，美国棉花因价格劣势市场份额持续萎缩——美国农业出口销售报告显示，2024/25年度陆地棉销售量不足1000包，远低于近十年平均5万包的水平。这反映出埃及正从特色棉产品供应商转型为更具价格竞争力的纺织生产国，制造国展开直接竞争。

2024/25 Outlook 

2024/25 展望

Production is mostly unchanged at 120.9 million as a 250,000-bale increase in China is offset by marginal reductions elsewhere. China production is forecast at 32.0 million bales, the highest level in more than a decade and roughly 25 percent of the global 2024/25 crop. 

全球棉花产量基本持平于1.209亿包，中国增产25万包被其他地区的小幅减产所抵消。中国棉花产量预计为3200万包，创十余年来新高，约占2024/25年度全球总产量的25%。

Global consumption is forecast down more than 500,000 bales to 116.0 million on lower use in China. As the United States is China’s largest export market for cotton products, significantly higher U.S. import tariffs are expected to lower cotton demand. 

全球棉花消费量预计将减少逾50万包至1.16亿包，主要因中国消费量下滑。由于美国是中国棉花制品最大出口市场，其大幅提高进口关税预计进一步抑制棉花需求。

Global trade is forecast down nearly 400,000 bales to around 42.3 million. Lower import forecasts for China and Indonesia more than offset higher Turkey imports. Lower exports from the United States, Brazil, Australia, and various West African countries more than offset higher shipments from Turkey. 

全球棉花贸易量预计将减少近40万包至约4230万包，主要因中国和印尼进口预测下调抵消了土耳其进口增长的影响。美国、巴西、澳大利亚及多个西非国家的出口量下降，虽土耳其出口量有所提升，但整体仍呈下滑态势。

Global ending stocks are expected to rise more than 500,000 bales to 78.9 million with larger carryover in China. For the United States, ending stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 5.0 million on lower exports; outside of the onset of COVID-19 (2019/20), this would be the highest level in more than 15 years. The U.S. season-average farm price for 2024/25 is unchanged at 63 cents per pound.

全球期末库存预计将增加逾50万包至7890万包，主要因中国结转库存增加。美国期末库存因出口量下调而上调10万包至500万包，除2019/20年度初期外，这将是15年来的最高水平。美国2024/25年度棉花农场均价维持63美分/磅不变。