1.热带太平洋已转为ENSO中性状态，预计将持续至秋季，中性状态是最可能的气候状态。
2.拉尼娜现象已结束，近期海表温度逐渐恢复正常，次表层冷水的明显减少进一步佐证了拉尼娜状态的终结。
3.由于ENSO预测的复杂性，预测机构采用相对海表温度异常指标，以简化计算过程。
4.然而，春季发布的ENSO预测成功率显著低于其他季节，受春季可预报性障碍影响。
5.期货市场风险较大，入市需谨慎，切勿据此买卖。
以上内容由腾讯混元大模型生成，仅供参考
After just a few months of La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific is now ENSO-neutral, and forecasters expect neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely state through the fall (greater than 50% chance).
在经历了仅几个月的拉尼娜状态后，热带太平洋目前已转为ENSO中性状态。预报显示，中性状态将持续整个北半球夏季，并在秋季仍是最可能的气候状态（概率超过50%）。
What is ENSO? What does neutral even mean?
ENSO是什么？中性甚至意味着什么？
ENSO stands for “El Niño/Southern Oscillation,” a pattern of changes in the temperature of the ocean surface and atmospheric circulation of the tropical Pacific region. La Niña means the surface water is cooler than average, the trade winds are stronger, and the central equatorial Pacific receives less rain. On the other hand, El Niño is represented by warmer surface water, weaker trade winds, and more rain in the central and sometimes eastern Pacific.
ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）是指热带太平洋地区海洋表面温度与大气环流变化的模式。其中，拉尼娜（La Niña）表现为海洋表面水温低于平均水平、信风增强以及赤道中太平洋地区降雨减少；而厄尔尼诺（El Niño）则表现为海洋表面水温升高、信风减弱，并在中太平洋乃至东太平洋地区引发更多降雨。
Both phases of ENSO change global weather and climate patterns, including temperature and rain/snow patterns, hurricanes, tornadoes, and many other impacts. Since El Niño and La Niña can be predicted months in advance, their known changes to global climate allow us an early picture of upcoming seasonal patterns. “ENSO-neutral” means that neither El Niño nor La Niña are in effect, and global seasonal conditions are less predictable .
ENSO的两个阶段（厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜）会改变全球天气和气候模式，包括温度、雨雪飓风、龙卷风及其他诸多影响。由于厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜可提前数月预测，其已知的气候变化规律能为全球模式提供早期预判。而"ENSO中性"则表示既非厄尔尼诺也非拉尼娜主导，此时全球季节性气候的可预测性显著降低。
A very brief La Niña
一次非常短暂的拉尼娜现象
How do we know that La Niña has ended? Our primary metric for ENSO is the surface temperature of the ocean in the Niño-3.4 region of the east-central Pacific. The surface temperature in this region is compared to the long-term average, providing us with an index that measures how much the water is warmer or cooler than average. Long-term is currently 1991–2020 (more on that later!). The La Niña threshold is a Niño-3.4 index of at least -0.5 °C (-0.9 °F). With the March 2025 Niño-3.4 index measuring -0.01 °C (i.e., nearly identical to the 1991-2020 average) according to our most reliable sea surface temperature dataset (ERSSTv5), we can say with confidence that La Niña conditions have ended.
我们如何知道拉尼娜已经结束？判断厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）状态的主要指标是东中太平洋Niño-3.4区域的海表温度。该区域的温度需与长期平均值（当前基准期为1991-2020年）对比，形成的Niño-3.4指数将衡量水温相对于平均值的冷暖程度。当该指数持续低于-0.5°C（即拉尼娜阈值）时，即达到拉尼娜事件标准。根据目前最可靠的海表温度数据集（ERSSTv5）显示，2025年3月Niño-3.4指数为-0.01°C，已接近1991-2020年的平均水平。结合以下科学依据，我们可以确认拉尼娜状态已结束。
2-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for all La Nina events since 1950 (gray lines) and the recent (2024-25) event (purple line). After dipping into La Niña for a few months, the Niño-3.4 index returned to near average in March 2025. Graph by Emily Becker, based on monthly Niño-3.4 index data from CPC using ERSSTv5.
热带太平洋Niño-3.4区域自1950年以来所有拉尼娜事件（灰线）与近期（2024-25年）事件（紫线）的两年海表温度历史记录。在经历数月的拉尼娜状态后，Niño-3.4指数于2025年3月回归接近平均水平。该图表由Emily Becker基于CPC使用ERSSTv5数据集提供的月度Niño-3.4指数数据绘制。
Last month, forecasters expected neutral conditions would develop very soon, and indeed they did. The combination of below-average temperatures weakening in the central Pacific and the westward expansion of very warm water in the far eastern Pacific helped to dissipate the cooler surface of La Niña.
上个月，预报员预计中性条件将很快形成，而实际情况确实如此。中太平洋低于平均水平的水温逐渐减弱，加上极东太平洋异常温暖水域的西向扩展，共同促使拉尼娜的较冷表层消散。
This animation shows weekly sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean compared to average for late January through early April 2025. Orange and red areas were warmer than average; blue areas were cooler than average. La Niña's cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the key ENSO-monitoring region of the tropical Pacific (outlined with black box) have dissipated in recent weeks.
该动画展示了2025年1月下旬至4月上旬太平洋每周海表温度相对于平均值的异常情况。橙色和红色区域表示温度高于平均水平，蓝色区域则低于平均水平。热带太平洋ENSO监测关键区（黑色方框标出的区域）内拉尼娜现象导致的低温海表温度已在最近数周内消散。
Over the past few months, there has been a substantial amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface of the equatorial Pacific, but this has also waned in recent weeks. The subsurface provides a source of fuel to the surface, so the marked decrease in cooler subsurface water is another indication that La Niña has ended.
热带太平洋次表层在过去数月持续存在显著低温水体，但最近数周已逐渐消退。次表层为表层温度变化提供能量来源，因此次表层冷水的明显减少进一步佐证了拉尼娜状态的终结。
ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system, meaning characteristic changes are required in both the ocean and the overlying atmospheric circulation to qualify as La Niña or El Niño. During La Niña, the Walker circulation—the overturning loop in the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific—gets amped up, signified by the stronger trade winds, more storms over Indonesia, and a less rainy central Pacific region. These atmospheric signs of La Niña were still around in March, but without the ocean surface temperature component, the overall system qualifies as ENSO-neutral.
ENSO是海洋-大气耦合系统，需要海洋和大气环流的协同变化才能达到拉尼娜或厄尔尼诺标准。在拉尼娜期间，热带太平洋上空的沃克环流（大气垂直环流圈）会增强，表现为信风加强、印度尼西亚上空风暴增多以及中太平洋地区降雨减少。尽管三月仍存在这些大气特征，但由于海表温度条件消失，整个系统已转为ENSO中性状态。
A matter of time
迟早的事
As mentioned above, our definition of “long-term” is currently the 1991–2020 average. The use of a 30-year average for seasonal climate prediction is the World Meteorological Organization standard. For most prediction purposes, the average period is updated every 10 years, but for ENSO prediction, we update it every 5 years, to try to account for changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
如上述，我们目前对“长期”的定义是1991–2020年的平均值。采用30年平均进行季节性气候预测是世界气象组织的标准做法。对于大多数预测目的，平均周期每10年更新一次，但针对ENSO预测，我们每5年更新一次，以尽可能反映热带太平洋的变化。
Thirty-year average periods that NOAA is using to calculate the strength of historic El Niño and La Niña events.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）用于计算历史厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件强度的三十年平均基准期。
In addition, the historical ENSO table uses a centered averaging period, e.g., the individual years in 1986–1990 are compared to the 30-year average 1971–2000, and the years in 1991–1995 are compared to 1976–2005.
此外，历史ENSO表格采用中心平均期计算方式。例如，1986-1990年的各年份数据与1971-2000年30年平均值对比，而1991-1995年数据则与1976-2005年平均值对比。
The reason for mentioning this detail is that this past winter does not qualify as a La Niña event in our historical table, because it did not last 5 consecutive rolling seasons (we call any 3-month-average a season) exceeding the -0.5 °C threshold. However, in 2036, this past winter will be near the middle of a 30-year period (2006–2035), which is very likely to be warmer than the 1991–2020 average. Thus, with the benefit of another decade, this year’s small La Niña may be cooler when compared to that warmer averaging period. So, in 2036, the 2024–25 winter may end up colored blue, and be considered a formal La Niña, in the historical table.
之所以提及这一细节，是因为当前冬季在历史表格中不符合拉尼娜事件的标准——其未能连续5个滚动季节（任何3个月平均均视为一个季节）超过-0.5°C阈值。然而，到2036年，这一冬季将位于2006-2035年的30年期中段，而该时段很可能比1991-2020年平均值更暖。因此，在叠加未来十年的数据后，当前年份的微弱拉尼娜现象若与该更暖的平均期对比，可能被判定为更冷。届时，2024-2025年冬季或将在历史表格中标记为蓝色，并正式归类为拉尼娜事件。
This complexity is one of the reasons we have been mentioning relative sea surface temperature anomalies, which are the sea surface temperature differences from average in a particular location, like the Niño-3.4 region, relative to the entire tropical average sea surface temperature. By using relative sea surface temperature measures, we can skip calculating all of these rolling climatologies. For the relative index, we only need to use a single climatology over the entire historical record. the relative Niño-3.4 index has also been better than the more traditional indexes at describing the intensity of the expected atmospheric response to ENSO during this past La Niña.
这种复杂性促使我们引入相对海表温度异常指标，即某一特定区域（如尼诺3.4区）的海温与整个热带平均海温的差异。通过使用相对指标，我们无需计算所有滚动气候期数据，仅需基于单一历史气候基准即可。相对尼诺3.4指数在描述此次拉尼娜期间ENSO预期大气响应的强度方面，也优于传统指标。
The outlook for the rest of 2025
2025年剩余时间的展望
ENSO-neutral is likely through the summer. Chances for El Niño or La Niña increase later in the year, with La Niña chances about double those of El Niño, but neutral is still the highest probability through the early winter.
ENSO中性状态预计将持续整个夏季。今年晚些时候，厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜现象的发生概率将有所增加，其中拉尼娜的概率约为厄尔尼诺的两倍，但直至初冬，中性状态仍是最可能的情形。
Out of the three climate possibilities—La Niña, El Niño, and neutral—forecasts say that ENSO-neutral conditions (gray bars) are most likely for the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer. Looking out to the fall, neutral is still the most likely, but chances for either La Niña (blue bars) or El Niño (red bars) are increasing. NOAA Climate Prediction Center image.
在三种气候可能性（拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺和中性状态）中，预测显示ENSO中性状态（灰色柱状图）在北半球春季和夏季出现的概率最高。展望秋季，中性状态仍是最可能的情形，但拉尼娜（蓝色柱状图）或厄尔尼诺（红色柱状图）的发生概率正在上升。
This outlook is largely based on computer climate model forecasts. The consensus of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, a collection of climate models, also predicts neutral, but there is a substantial range of potential outcomes for later in the year.
这一预测主要基于计算机气候模型的预报结果。北美多模式集合（由多个气候模型组成的预测系统）的共识预测同样显示中性状态，但针对今年晚些时段的预测结果存在显著分歧。
Line graph showing observed and predicted temperatures (black line) in the key ENSO-monitoring region of the tropical Pacific from spring 2025 through the fall. The gray shading shows the range of temperatures predicted by individual models that are part of the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, for short). By late summer, the shading spans from El Niño to La Niña, showing the range of potential ENSO states. However, the majority of model forecasts are concentrated in the neutral range, meaning the highest chance is that the temperature in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific will be near average. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data provided by Climate Prediction Center.
线形图展示了2025年春季至秋季热带太平洋ENSO核心监测区域（尼诺3.4区）的观测温度（黑线）与预测温度。灰色阴影部分代表北美多模式集合（NMME）中各模型的预测温度范围。截至夏季末，阴影范围覆盖了从厄尔尼诺到拉尼娜的潜在ENSO状态可能性，但多数模型预测集中在中性区间，表明热带太平洋尼诺3.4区海温接近常年平均值的概率最高。
Forecasts made in the spring are known to be less successful than forecasts made in the rest of the year, an effect called the “spring predictability barrier.” We don’t have a clear understanding of why forecasts are worse this time of year, but one potential culprit is that ENSO tends to be changing phase (e.g., going from La Niña to neutral). For lots more detail on the spring predictability barrier, check out this post and this one on Seasoned Chaos on the topic.
春季发布的ENSO预测成功率显著低于其他季节，这种现象被称为“春季可预报性障碍”。尽管其具体成因尚未完全明确，但研究发现，此时ENSO系统常处于相位转换期（例如从拉尼娜向中性状态过渡），大气与海洋耦合过程的混沌性增强，导致初始误差快速放大。
As spring turns to summer, our crystal ball should become clearer. For now, we’ll bid La Niña adieu and bide our time in neutral.
随着夏季临近，热带太平洋的海洋-大气相互作用逐渐稳定，ENSO的演变信号趋于清晰，模型预测的可靠性将提升。当前，我们正式告别拉尼娜事件，全球气候系统暂时回归中性状态。
温馨提示：盘面影响因素较多（宏观、供需、情绪、产业套保套利、量化等），天气仅是众多因素中的一个，切勿据此买卖。期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。