1.美国大豆种植日期逐年提前，以充分利用更长的生长季节和更具抗逆性的种子品种。
2.早播大豆能捕获更多阳光，增加结荚数和产量潜力。
3.由于气候变暖、耐寒种子品种、精准种植技术以及市场驱动的激励措施，大豆种植加速显著。
4.然而，玉米种植可能会继续提前，但大豆仍将处于这一转变的前沿。
5.早期监测对于理解和适应不断变化的种植窗口将至关重要。
以上内容由腾讯混元大模型生成，仅供参考
Introduction
引言
For U.S. soybean farmers, economic pressure and the pursuit of higher yields push planting dates earlier each year. With tight margins and volatile grain markets, maximizing soybean production is essential for profitability. Research shows that earlier planting increases yield potential by extending the growing season, allowing plants to take full advantage of available sunlight and reach key developmental stages before the peak summer heat.
对于美国的大豆种植者来说，经济压力和追求更高产量的目标推动着每年的种植日期逐年提前。在利润空间有限和粮食市场波动的情况下，最大化大豆产量对于实现盈利至关重要。研究表明，提前种植可以通过延长生长季节来增加产量潜力，使作物能够充分利用阳光，并在夏季高温到来之前达到关键的发育阶段。
天气仍然是这一转变中的主要因素。早春的低温土壤会减缓种子发芽速度，并增加幼苗病害的风险，而晚春的霜冻则威胁着刚刚出土的植株。农民还必须考虑春季降雨的时机——过多的水分会延迟种植，而干旱条件则可能阻碍早期生长。尽管存在这些风险，许多生产者仍愿意调整他们的管理措施——例如使用种子处理剂、调整种植深度以及选择早熟品种——以充分利用提前种植带来的产量优势。
The USDA releases crop progress reports every Monday during the growing season, offering critical insights into planting and crop development. These reports provide weekly updates on major U.S. crops’ planting, emergence, and growth progress, particularly corn and soybeans. In recent years, a major trend has emerged—earlier planting dates. We examine this trend below.
美国农业部（USDA）在生长季节期间每周一发布作物进展报告，这些报告提供了关于美国主要作物（尤其是玉米和大豆）的种植、出苗和生长进展的每周更新，为种植和作物发展提供了关键见解。近年来，一个主要趋势逐渐显现——种植日期提前。我们将在下文中探讨这一趋势。
2024 USDA Crop Progress Reports for Corn and Soybeans
2024年美国农业部（USDA）的玉米和大豆作物进展报告
The 2024 USDA crop progress data indicates that planting has begun earlier than usual, continuing a shift observed over the last several decades. While both corn and soybeans are being planted sooner, soybeans have experienced an especially accelerated shift due to climate trends, technological advancements, and agronomic strategies. This post analyzes the historical and recent trends in U.S. crop planting dates, focusing on Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana—key agricultural states.
2024年美国农业部（USDA）的作物进展数据显示，种植开始时间比往年更早，延续了过去几十年观察到的趋势。尽管玉米和大豆的种植时间都在提前，但由于气候趋势、技术进步和农业策略的推动，大豆的种植时间尤其显著提前。本文分析了美国作物种植日期的历史和近期趋势，重点关注了爱荷华州、伊利诺伊州和印第安纳州等关键农业州。
The 2024 crop progress for soybeans and corn is illustrated in 1(a) and 1(b), providing a comparison of planting progress against previous years.
2024年大豆和玉米的作物进展在图1(a)和图1(b)中展示，提供了与往年种植进度的对比。
(a)
(b)
Figure 1. (a) USDA United States crop progress for soybeans in 2024. (b) USDA United States crop progress for corn in 2024.
图1. (a) 2024年美国农业部美国大豆作物进展。(b) 2024年美国农业部美国玉米作物进展。
Corn and Soybean Planting Trends: A Long-Term Shift
玉米和大豆种植趋势：长期转变
US Corn planting dates have steadily moved earlier in the season, driven by multiple factors. A warming climate has allowed farmers to enter fields sooner, reducing the risks of late spring frost. Improved seed genetics provide greater resilience, while advances in precision agriculture enable farmers to optimize planting timing. These developments have ensured that corn planting begins earlier than in past decades.
美国的玉米种植日期在季节中稳步提前，这是由多种因素驱动的。气候变暖使农民能够更早进入田间，减少了晚春霜冻的风险。改进的种子遗传学提供了更强的抗逆性，而精准农业的进步使农民能够优化种植时间。这些发展确保了玉米种植比过去几十年更早开始。
However, soybeans are undergoing an even more dramatic transformation. While corn farmers have steadily pushed planting forward, the acceleration of soybean planting has outpaced that of corn in recent years. The shift is driven by early-planted soybeans consistently producing higher yields. Farmers are now prioritizing soybean fields alongside corn when conditions allow.
然而，大豆正在经历一场更为显著的转变。尽管玉米种植者稳步推进了种植时间，但近年来大豆种植的加速已经超过了玉米。这一转变的驱动力在于早播大豆持续带来更高的产量。在条件允许的情况下，农民现在正优先考虑大豆田与玉米田的种植。
Impact of Precipitation on Planting Progress
降水对种植进度的影响
Weather conditions help to determine how quickly farmers plant their crops. In years with above-average spring precipitation, fieldwork is delayed, leading to a slower pace of planting progress.
天气条件有助于决定农民种植作物的速度。在春季降水高于平均水平的年份，田间作业会被推迟，导致种植进度放缓。
In Iowa, data shows that as April precipitation increases, the number of days needed to reach the 50% planted threshold also increases. This impact is particularly pronounced in soybeans, which are more sensitive to early-season soil moisture conditions (Figure 2).
在爱荷华州，数据显示，随着4月降水量的增加，达到50%种植阈值所需的天数也会增加。这种影响在大豆中尤为显著，因为大豆对早期土壤湿度条件更为敏感（图2）。
Figure 2. Relationship between accumulated precipitation and the number of days from April 1st to 50% soybean planting progress in Iowa.
图2. 爱荷华州累计降水量与从4月1日到大豆种植进度达到50%所需天数之间的关系。
Historical Crop Planting Trends: The First USDA Planting Progress Report
Since the late 1970s, the first non-zero USDA planting progress reports for both corn and soybeans have shifted earlier in the season. However, the shift is far more evident in soybeans, especially in the key production states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
自20世纪70年代末以来，美国农业部（USDA）首次发布的非零种植进度报告中，玉米和大豆的种植时间都出现了提前的趋势。然而，这一趋势在大豆中表现得更为明显，尤其是在爱荷华州、伊利诺伊州和印第安纳州等主要生产州。
The advancement of the first reported soybean planting progress in these states is highlighted in Figure 3 which shows how the timing of planting progress has shifted over time.
图3突出展示了这些州首次报告的大豆种植进度的提前情况，显示了种植进度时间如何随着时间的推移而变化。
Figure 3. Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana first date of non-zero USDA soybean planting progress reports by year.
图3. 爱荷华州、伊利诺伊州和印第安纳州历年首次非零美国农业部（USDA）大豆种植进度报告的日期。
Corn planting has historically set the pace, but soybean planting has caught up. Farmers now plant soybeans as soon as conditions allow, taking advantage of longer growing seasons and more resilient seed varieties. Agronomic research underscores the yield benefits of early planting. Early-planted soybeans capture more sunlight during the growing season, increasing pod set and yield potential (Salmeron et al., 2022).
玉米种植在历史上一直引领种植节奏，但大豆种植已经迎头赶上。如今，农民们一旦条件允许就会尽早种植大豆，充分利用更长的生长季节和更具抗逆性的种子品种。农学研究强调了早期种植对产量的益处。早期种植的大豆在生长季节中能够捕获更多的阳光，从而增加结荚数和产量潜力。
Soybean Planting: A Data-Driven Analysis
大豆种植：数据驱动分析
Soybean planting dates in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa have sifted earlier in the year over the past two decades. USDA records from 1979 to the present confirm that the first reported planting date continues to move earlier, reflecting improved farming efficiency and a warming climate.
在过去二十年中，伊利诺伊州、印第安纳州和爱荷华州的大豆种植日期逐年提前。美国农业部（USDA）从1979年至今的记录证实，首次报告的种植日期持续提前，这反映了农业效率的提高和气候变暖的趋势。
A root mean square-based regression model projects that the 2025 USDA planting progress report for soybeans will be released even earlier, reinforcing this long-term trend.
基于均方根的回归模型预测，2025年美国农业部（USDA）的大豆种植进度报告将比往年更早发布，进一步强化了这一长期趋势。
Supporting this forecast, temperature data sourced from the Point-in-Time Forecast API shows a clear warming signal in April temperatures across the Midwest:
支持这一预测的是，来自Point-in-Time Forecast API的温度数据显示，中西部地区4月气温呈现出明显的变暖趋势：
Iowa: +1.38°F per decade
爱荷华州：每十年升温+1.38°F
Illinois: +2.82°F per decade
伊利诺伊州：每十年升温+2.82°F
Indiana: +2.80°F per decade
印第安纳州：每十年升温+2.80°F
These findings, shown in Table 1, strongly suggest that warming trends are increasing planting readiness for soybeans, allowing farmers to take advantage of earlier planting windows with greater confidence.
这些发现，如表1所示，强烈表明气候变暖趋势正在提高大豆的种植准备度，使农民能够更有信心地利用更早的种植窗口。
Table 1. Corn and soybean root mean square regression results for April mean daily minimum temperature trends.
表1. 4月日均最低气温趋势的玉米和大豆均方根回归结果
Corn Planting Progress: Following a Similar Trend
玉米种植进度：遵循相似趋势
Corn planting progress has followed a similar pattern, though at a slower rate. Since 1978, USDA reports have tracked planting progress in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa, showing a clear movement toward earlier start dates. However, the acceleration in corn planting has been less pronounced compared to soybeans.
玉米种植进度遵循了类似的趋势，但速度较慢。自1978年以来，美国农业部（USDA）的报告追踪了伊利诺伊州、印第安纳州和爱荷华州的种植进度，显示出种植开始日期明显提前的趋势。然而，与大豆相比，玉米种植的加速趋势并不那么显著。
The advancement of the first non-zero USDA planting progress reports for corn over time is shown in Figure 4.
随着时间的推移，美国农业部（USDA）玉米种植进度报告中首次非零值的提前情况如图4所示。
Figure 4. Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana first date of non-zero USDA corn planting progress reports by year.
图4. 爱荷华州、伊利诺伊州和印第安纳州每年首次非零美国农业部（USDA）玉米种植进度报告的日期。
A root mean square regression model predicts that the 2025 USDA planting progress report for corn will arrive earlier than historical averages. However, it will likely not match the rapid acceleration observed in soybeans.
均方根回归模型预测，2025年美国农业部（USDA）玉米种植进度报告将比历史平均水平更早发布。然而，它可能无法与大豆观察到的快速加速相匹配。
Discussion: The Growing Importance of Early Soybean Planting
讨论：早期大豆种植日益增长的重要性
The acceleration of soybean planting dates has been the most significant transformation in U.S. crop planting strategies over the last five years.
大豆种植日期的加速是过去五年美国作物种植策略中最显著的转变。
Economic incentives are a key factor in this shift. Early planting allows farmers to extend the growing season, increasing the likelihood of higher yields and maximizing profit potential. Grain markets often reward early-season production with higher basis levels and premium pricing opportunities. Additionally, early planting helps farmers manage operational risks by reducing bottlenecks during peak planting periods, ensuring that corn and soybean acres are established within optimal windows. Studies indicate that planting earlier extends the vegetative phase, resulting in more main stem nodes, which are critical for maximizing soybean yield.
经济激励是这一转变的关键因素。早期种植使农民能够延长生长季节，增加高产的可能性并最大化利润潜力。粮食市场通常通过更高的基差水平和溢价机会来奖励早期生产。此外，早期种植有助于农民通过减少高峰种植期的瓶颈来管理运营风险，确保玉米和大豆在最佳窗口期内完成种植。研究表明，早期种植延长了植物的营养生长期，从而产生更多的主茎节，这对最大化大豆产量至关重要。
Conclusion
结论
Soybean planting has accelerated rapidly, outpacing corn with increasingly earlier start dates. This shift reflects a broader transformation in U.S. agriculture, where farmers leverage warming temperatures, cold-tolerant seed varieties, precision planting technology, and market-driven incentives. As these factors continue shaping planting decisions, soybeans have emerged as the crop most responsive to climate adaptation, technological advancements, and shifting agronomic strategies.
大豆种植的加速显著，其开始日期越来越早，已超过玉米。这一转变反映了美国农业更广泛的转型，农民利用气候变暖、耐寒种子品种、精准种植技术以及市场驱动的激励措施。随着这些因素继续影响种植决策，大豆已成为对气候适应、技术进步和农业策略变化最为敏感的作物。
Looking ahead to 2025, all signs indicate that the first USDA soybean planting progress report will arrive even earlier than in past years, further solidifying early soybean planting as the new norm. While corn planting will likely continue shifting forward, soybeans will remain at the forefront of this transformation. As USDA crop progress reports reflect these trends, early-season monitoring will be essential for understanding and adapting to evolving planting windows.
展望2025年，所有迹象表明，美国农业部（USDA）的第一份大豆种植进度报告将比往年更早发布，进一步巩固了早期大豆种植作为新常态的地位。虽然玉米种植可能会继续提前，但大豆仍将处于这一转变的前沿。随着USDA作物进度报告反映这些趋势，早期监测对于理解和适应不断变化的种植窗口将至关重要。
■文章仅提供主流客观数据（usda、cropprophet），供决策参考。无品种买卖方向分析，期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。