海外之声｜美联储主席鲍威尔最新演讲全文：维持利率不变！

2025年3月19日

鲍威尔主席：大家下午好。从美国人民的利益出发，我和我的同事们始终致力于实现我们的双重使命，即实现充分就业和价格稳定。总体而言，美国经济表现强劲，并在过去两年中朝着我们的政策目标取得了显著进步——劳动力市场状况稳健，通胀水平尽管仍略有偏高，但已更接近2%的长期目标。

为更好实现政策目标，联邦公开市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC）今日决定维持政策利率不变。同时，我们还做出了一项技术性决定，即放缓资产负债表规模的缩减速度。关于这一系列决策，我将在简要回顾经济形势之后作进一步说明。

去年第四季度中，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张，实际GDP增长2.3%。然而，近期迹象表明，2024年下半年经历快速增长后，居民消费支出已表现出放缓趋势。针对家庭和企业的调查显示，经济前景的不确定性有所上升。这些发展将如何影响未来的支出与投资，目前仍有待观察。在我们发布的《经济预测摘要》（Summary of Economic Projections，SEP）中，多数与会者预测今年GDP增长为1.7%，较去年12月的预测略有下调，并预计未来两年的GDP增长率将略低于2%。

在劳动力市场方面，整体状况依然稳健。过去三个月，非农就业岗位月均增加20万个。当前失业率为4.1%，仍处于较低水平，并在过去一年内维持在一个相对窄幅的区间内。岗位与劳动力缺口近几个月保持稳定。工资增速高于通胀水平，且相比疫情初期的复苏阶段，增长更加可持续。总体来看，多项指标表明劳动力市场已趋于整体平衡，目前的就业状况并未构成显著的通胀压力来源。根据《经济预测摘要》（SEP）的中位数预测，今年年末的失业率为4.4%，未来两年则将为4.3%。

过去两年中，通胀显著回落，但相较于我们2%的长期目标，仍略高。基于消费者价格指数（CPI）及其他数据的估算显示，截至2月，过去12个月内，个人消费支出（PCE）物价总水平上升2.5%，而在剔除波动性较大的食品与能源价格后，核心PCE物价上涨2.8%。近期，一些短期通胀预期指标有所上升。无论是基于市场的数据还是调查数据均显示出这一点：调查对象，包括消费者与企业，普遍认为关税是推高通胀的一个重要因素。不过，未来一年以后，大多数长期通胀预期指标仍与我们2%的通胀目标保持一致。根据《经济预测摘要》的中位数预测，今年PCE总通胀率为2.7%，明年将为2.2%，均较去年12月的预测略高。预测值将在2027年达到我们设定的2%目标水平。

我们的货币政策始终以实现“充分就业”和“价格稳定”这两项使命为指导。在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%不变。展望未来，新一届政府正在四个关键领域推行重要政策变革，分别是：贸易、移民、财政政策和监管。对于经济以及货币政策路径而言，这些政策调整的综合效应才是关键。虽然近期在部分领域（尤其是贸易政策）已出现一些新动向，但围绕这些变化及其对经济前景的影响仍存在高度不确定性。我们在分析新增信息时，始终关注区分“信号”与“噪音”，以便准确把握前景演变。如我们在声明中所述，在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的时点与幅度时，委员会将评估最新数据、经济前景的变化，以及风险的整体平衡。目前我们无需急于调整政策立场，亦具备良好条件等待更加明确的形势再做决策。

在本次发布的《经济预测摘要》中，委员会（FOMC）成员各自给出了他们认为最有可能且适当的联邦基金利率调整路径。鉴于当前具有高度不确定性的经济环境，这一预测任务本身就充满挑战。根据中位数预测，今年年底联邦基金利率应为3.9%，2026年底为3.4%，与去年12月的预测保持一致。尽管这些个人预测本就存在不确定性，但正如我所强调，如今的不确定性程度尤为显著。当然，这些预测并不代表委员会的集体计划或决议。

我们的政策并非预设路径。随着经济形势的变化，我们将相应调整政策立场，以最佳方式实现“充分就业”和“价格稳定”的双重使命。如果经济继续保持强劲，且通胀未能持续向2%靠拢，我们便可以在更长时间内维持紧缩性政策立场；反之，若劳动力市场出现意外疲软，或通胀下降速度超出预期，我们也可以据此适时放松政策。当前的政策立场具备良好的灵活性，足以应对我们在实现双重使命过程中面临的各种风险与不确定性。

在今天的会议上，我们还决定放缓资产负债表缩减的速度。自启动缩表以来，美联储持有的证券资产已减少超过2万亿美元。虽然市场指标依然表明，银行体系中的准备金数量依然充裕，但我们观察到货币市场的紧张迹象有所上升。自4月起，国债赎回的月度上限将从250亿美元下调至50亿美元。为保持委员会在长期内以持有国债为主的资产结构意图，我们将机构证券（agency securities）的赎回上限维持不变。该项操作不会改变我们货币政策的立场，也不会在中期内对资产负债表规模造成实质性影响。

委员会还继续推进对我们货币政策框架的五年周期性审查工作。在本次会议中，我们聚焦于劳动力市场动态及“充分就业”目标的实现情况。正如我们此前所指出的，这一审查将包含多方参与的对话与公众活动，其中包括在全国范围内举办的“倾听美联储（Fed Listens）”活动，以及定于5月举行的一场研究型会议。在这一过程中，我们将对新观点与建设性批评保持开放态度，并深入汲取过去五年的经验教训，作为制定评估结论的重要依据。本轮政策框架审查，计划在今年夏末前完成。

美联储被赋予了两大货币政策目标——实现充分就业与价格稳定。我们将继续致力于推动实现充分就业，使通胀水平持续回归2%的目标区间，并维持长期通胀预期的稳定。这些目标的实现，与所有美国人息息相关。我们深知，美联储的每一项决策都关系到全国各地的社群、家庭与企业。我们所做的一切，皆以履行我们为公众的使命为核心。美联储将竭尽所能，努力实现我们的充分就业与价格稳定目标。谢谢大家，我的讲话到此结束。欢迎各位提问。

英文原文：

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference 

March 19, 2025

CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. Labor market conditions are solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated.

In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged. We also made the technical decision to slow the pace of decline in the size of our balance sheet. I will have more to say about these decisions after briefly reviewing economic developments.

Economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in the fourth quarter of last year, with GDP rising at 2.3 percent. Recent indications, however, point to a moderation in consumer spending following the rapid growth seen over the second half of 2024. Surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.7 percent this year, somewhat lower than projected in December, and to rise a bit below 2 percent over the next two years.

In the labor market, conditions remain solid. Payroll job gains averaged 200 thousand per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low and has held in a narrow range for the past year. The jobs-to-workers gap has held steady for several months. Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures. The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4 percent at the end of this year and 4.3 percent over the next two years.

Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in February and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent. Some near-term measures of inflation expectations have recently moved up. We see this in both market- and survey-based measures, and survey respondents, both consumers and businesses, are mentioning tariffs as a driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.7 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year, a little higher than projected in December. In 2027, the median projection is at our 2 percent objective.

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today’s meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. Looking ahead, the new Administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their effects on the economic outlook is high. As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. As we say in our statement, in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance, and we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.

In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate, based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward—an admittedly challenging exercise at this time, in light of considerable uncertainty. The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.9 percent at the end of this year and 3.4 percent at the end of next year, unchanged from December. While these individual forecasts are always subject to uncertainty, as I noted, uncertainty today is unusually elevated. And, of course, these projections are not a Committee plan or a decision.

Policy is not on a preset course. As the economy evolves, we will adjust our policy stance in a manner that best promotes our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2 percent, we can maintain policy restraint for longer. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly. Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.

At today’s meeting, we also decided to slow the pace of decline in our balance sheet. Since we began balance sheet runoff, our securities holdings have declined by more than $2 trillion. While market indicators continue to suggest that the quantity of reserves remains abundant, we have seen some signs of increased tightness in money markets. Beginning in April, the monthly cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion. Consistent with the Committee’s intention to hold primarily Treasury securities in the longer run, we are leaving the cap on agency securities unchanged. This action has no implications for our intended stance of monetary policy and should not affect the size of our balance sheet over the medium term.

The Committee also continued its discussions as part of our five-year review of our monetary policy framework. At this meeting, we focused on labor market dynamics and our maximum employment goal. As we have indicated, our review will include outreach and public events involving a wide range of parties, including Fed Listens events around the country and a research conference in May. Throughout this process, we will be open to new ideas and critical feedback, and we will take on board lessons of the last five years in determining our findings. We intend to wrap up the review by late summer.

The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

（本文观点仅供了解海外动态，不代表平台的意见和立场。）

Federal Reserve Board, 美国联邦储备委员会