1.2024年美棉花产品进口反弹10%，达到330万吨(吨)，但仍低于20年平均水平。
2.消费者需求增加和零售商补充库存是推动进口增长的主要原因。
3.除墨西哥外，美国从所有八个最大供应国的棉花产品进口量都有所增加。
4.由于零售商库存较低和消费者需求稳定，预计2025年美棉花产品进口将进一步增长。
5.全球消费量预计增加近60万包，达到1.165亿包，因为巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和埃及的使用量增加。
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2024 U.S. Cotton Product Imports Rebound
2024年美棉花产品进口反弹
The United States is the world’s largest importer of cotton products (i.e., apparel, home textiles, etc.) and most U.S. consumer retail purchases of these goods are imported. 1Cotton product imports in calendar year 2024 rallied 10 percent to 3.3 million metric tons (tons). Despite this growth, last year’s imports remained below the 20-year average.
美国是世界上最大的棉花产品（即服装、家用纺织品等）进口国，消费者零售购买的这些商品大多是进口的。 2024日历年的棉花产品进口增长了10%，达到330万吨（吨）。尽管有这一增长，去年的进口仍低于20年平均水平。
Higher imports were primarily driven by increased consumer demand and retailers replenishing depleted inventories. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that U.S. real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 2.8 percent in 2024 partly driven by an increase in consumer spending. Retail sales at clothing stores in the United States are also estimated to have risen about 2 percent in 2024 to a new record.2 In addition to strong retail sales, larger imports replenished retailers’ inventories that had declined since 2022 on anticipation of slower economic growth and consumer spending. However, as consumer spending has remained strong, retailers are bolstering inventories to pre-2022 levels. A similar trend of rebuilding inventories occurred in the European Union, the second largest importer of cotton products, where imports also rose 10 percent in 2024 despite anemic economic growth of only 0.8 percent (according to the International Monetary Fund).
进口增加的主要原因是消费者需求增加和零售商补充库存。美国商务部经济分析局估计，美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）在2024年增长了2.8%，部分原因是消费者支出增加。美国服装店的零售额在2024年也估计增长了约2%，达到新的纪录。除了强劲的零售额，较大的进口补充了零售商自2022年以来因预期经济增长放缓和消费者支出减少而减少的库存。然而，由于消费者支出保持强劲，零售商正在将库存恢复到2022年之前的水平。在欧盟也出现了类似的重建库存趋势，欧盟是棉花产品的第二大进口国，尽管经济增长疲软，仅为0.8%（根据国际货币基金组织的数据），但2024年欧盟的进口也增长了10%。
Annual U.S. Cotton Product Imports by Country
美国按国家划分的年度棉花产品进口
The volume of U.S. cotton product imports rose from all eight of the largest suppliers, excluding Mexico. In contrast to the broad recovery, imports from Mexico declined by almost 10 percent as cotton consumption in the country continues to fall. Market share allocation remained mostly unchanged as China captured 20 percent, followed by India at 16 percent, and Pakistan at 14 percent.
美国从所有八个最大供应国（不包括墨西哥）的棉花产品进口量都有所增加。与广泛复苏形成对比的是，从墨西哥的进口量下降了近10%，因为该国的棉花消费量继续下降。市场份额分配基本保持不变，中国占20%，其次是印度占16%，巴基斯坦占14%。
In 2025, U.S. cotton product imports are expected to rise further because of low retailer inventories and stable consumer demand, and this will help drive a projected increase in world 2024/25 cotton consumption.
2025年，由于零售商库存较低和消费者需求稳定，美棉花产品进口预计将进一步增长，这将有助于推动2024/25年度全球棉花消费的预期增长。
2024/25 Outlook
2024/25年展望
Production is forecast up 500,000 bales to 121.0 million as a 750,000-bale increase in China more than offsets reductions for Pakistan and Argentina. Global consumption is forecast up nearly 600,000 bales to 116.5 million on higher use in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt. Egypt consumption is projected at the highest level in nearly 15 years at 725,000 bales.
预计产量将增加50万包，达到1.21亿包，中国的增加量（75万包）超过了巴基斯坦和阿根廷的减少量。全球消费量预计增加近60万包，达到1.165亿包，因为巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和埃及的使用量增加。埃及的消费量预计将达到近15年来的最高水平，为72.5万包。
Global trade is forecast up 200,000 bales to 42.7 million. Higher import forecasts for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt more than offset a 500,000-bale reduction for China. Brazil and Turkey exports are projected up, more than offsetting reductions for Australia and Egypt exports. Global ending stocks are down slightly to 78.3 million bales on reductions for Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina that more than offset upward revisions to China and Australia.
全球贸易预计增加20万包，达到4270万包。巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和埃及的进口预测增加，抵消中国减少的50万包。巴西和土耳其的出口预计增加，抵消澳大利亚和埃及出口的减少。全球期末库存略微下降至7830万包，原因是巴西、土耳其和阿根廷的减少抵消了中国和澳大利亚的增加
■文章仅提供主流客观数据（USDA），供决策参考，无品种买卖方向分析。期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。