1.欧盟2024/25年度大豆粕进口预测上调100万公吨至1760万公吨，创9年来新高。
2.哥伦比亚预计2024/25年度棕榈油出口为42万吨，同比下降，原因是国内生物柴油需求增加。
3.与此同时，泰国棕榈油出口在经历十年增长后趋于稳定，印度需求成为关键因素。
4.由于昂贵的棕榈油价格，印度替代油进口量增加，棕榈油在总进口量中的占比降至略高于一半的水平。
以上内容由腾讯混元大模型生成，仅供参考
European Union Soybean Meal Imports to Reach 9-Year High
欧盟豆粕进口量将达9年新高
欧盟大豆粕进口和油籽粕消费
The European Union soybean meal import forecast for 2024/25 (October-September) is raised 1.0 million metric tons (tons) to 17.6 million. First quarter imports were the highest in over a decade, reaching nearly 6.0 million tons. Soybean meal is largely imported from Brazil and Argentina, with additional volumes in recent years coming from the United States, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Based on export data for Brazil and Argentina, the European Union imported at least 2.4 million tons across January and February, indicating a strong pace during the first 5 months of the marketing year. Soybean meal export prices are approaching 5-year lows, driven by large global soybean supplies and increased soybean crush in producer countries including Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. 2024/25 EU soybean meal consumption is forecast to offset a reduction in consumption of rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, both of which are in shorter supply due to reduced 2024/25 global production. Imports of soybeans and domestic soybean crush are expected to grow this year despite high soybean meal imports.
欧盟将2024/25年度（10月至次年9月）大豆粕进口预测上调100万公吨（吨）至1760万公吨。其中一季度的进口量为十多年来最高，达到近600万吨。豆粕进口主要来自巴西和阿根廷，近年来也有部分来自美国、乌克兰和巴拉圭的额外供应量。据巴西和阿根廷的出口数据显示，欧盟在1月和2月至少进口了240万吨，这意味着该营销年度的前5个月中进口步伐强劲。受全球大豆供应增加以及包括巴西、阿根廷和美国在内的生产国大豆压榨量增加的影响，豆粕价格正接近5年来的低点。2024/25年欧盟大豆粕消费的增量预计将抵消菜籽粕和葵花籽粕消费的减量，后两者因2024/25年度全球产量减少而供应趋紧。尽管大豆粕进口量高，但预计大豆和国产大豆的压榨量今年将会增长。
Growing Biodiesel Demand Curbs Colombia Palm Oil Exports
日益增长的生物柴油需求限制了哥伦比亚棕榈油的出口
Colombia is the world’s fourth largest palm oil producer at nearly 2.0 million tons, accounting for 4 percent of global output. In 2024/25 (October-September), Colombia is projected to export 420,000 tons of palm oil, down from last year as first quarter exports were behind last year’s pace. According to FAS Bogota, the Colombia biodiesel blend rate has been increasing steadily since 2015 and is estimated at 12.5 percent in 2024. Higher blending is supported by voluntary programs that allow up to 20 percent biodiesel in cargo vehicles .
哥伦比亚是全球第四大棕榈油生产国，产量近200万吨，占全球产量的4%。在2024/25年度（10月至次年9月），哥伦比亚预计将出口42万吨棕榈油，低于去年的水平，因为第一季度的出口速度落后于去年同期。根据FAS Bogota的数据，自2015年以来，哥伦比亚的生物柴油混合率一直在稳步上升，2024年达到12.5%。允许货运车辆使用高达20%的生物柴油，使得更高的混合比例得以实现。
Palm oil area and production continued to rise in recent years, though exports plateaued at an average of 440,000 tons as domestic demand for biodiesel has gone up each year. Exports as a percentage of production declined from over 40 percent in 2018/19 to a litile over 20 percent in 2023/24. While growth slowed in the last 4 years, destinations for Colombia palm oil exports shitied. Colombia expanded market share in Mexico likely due to declining rapeseed oil imports from Canada. Meanwhile, market share declined in the EU due to falling consumption of palm oil.
近年来，尽管生物柴油的国内需求逐年增加，但棕榈油的出口平均稳定在44万吨左右，出口占产量的比例从2018/19年度的40%以上，下降到2023/24年度的略高于20%。虽然过去4年的增长有所放缓，但哥伦比亚棕榈油出口的目的地发生了变化。哥伦比亚在墨西哥的市场份额可能因加拿大油菜籽油进口下降而增加。同时由于棕榈油消费下降，其在欧盟的市场份额下降。
哥伦比亚棕榈油的出口和国内工业消费
Thailand Palm Oil Exports Stabilize Following Decade-Long Growth
泰国棕榈油出口在经历十年增长后趋于稳定
As the third largest palm oil producer behind Indonesia and Malaysia, Thailand accounts for 5 percent of global output. In the past decade, Thailand grew palm oil production by 80 percent on higher planted acreage of oil palm trees.
作为仅次于印度尼西亚和马来西亚的第三大棕榈油生产国，泰国占全球产量的5%。在过去十年中，由于种植的油棕榈树面积增加，泰国棕榈油产量增长了80%。
In the same decade, Thailand boosted palm oil exports twenty-fold to 800,000 metric tons. Thailand’s exports of palm oil as a percentage of production grew to an average of 22 percent in the past 5 years, up from 8 percent during 2016-2020. Purchases from India propelled Thailand palm oil exports as India accounted for 80 percent of Thailand’s exports since 2017. Competitiveness of palm oil prices for export to India will be a key factor in Thailand’s palm oil export potential throughout 2025 as India looks toward lower-cost alternatives.
同样的十年里，泰国将棕榈油出口量增加了20倍，达到80万吨。过去5年，泰国棕榈油出口占产量的比例平均达到22%，而2016-2020年期间为8%。自2017年以来，印度的采购推动了泰国的棕榈油出口，因为印度占泰国出口量的80%。随着印度寻求成本更低的替代品，向印度出口棕榈油的价格竞争力将成为2025年泰国棕榈油出口潜力的关键因素。
泰国棕榈油出口
Pricey Palm Oil Propels Alternate Oil Imports in India
昂贵的棕榈油推动印度替代油进口
This month, 2024/25 (October-September) India imports of palm oil were lowered 900,000 to 8.0 million tons, while estimates for sunflowerseed and soybean oil imports were raised. High palm oil prices prompted refiners to switch from crude palm oil to more cost-effective crude sunflowerseed and soybean oil. Soybean oil imports are estimated at a record high, exceeding the previous peak in 2014/15. These shifts bring palm oil down to just over half of India’s total oil imports, a remarkable decline from its previous market share dominance. India is the largest global importer of vegetable oils. Its imports shift depending on prices. In January 2025, U.S. monthly soybean oil exports to India reached near 3-year highs as U.S. soybean oil prices were comptitive globally.
本月，2024/25年度（10月至次年9月）印度的棕榈油进口量下调至800万吨，而葵花籽油和大豆油的进口量估计有所增加。棕榈油价格高企促使精炼厂从棕榈油转向成本效益更高的葵花籽油和大豆油。豆油进口量估计将达到创纪录高位，超过2014/15年度的峰值。这些变化使棕榈油在印度石油总进口量中的占比降至略高于一半的水平，与之前的主导市场份额相比出现了显著下降。印度是全球最大的植物油进口国。其进口量的变化取决于价格。2025年1月，由于美国大豆油在全球具有竞争力，美国每月向印度出口的大豆油达到近3年来的高点。
印度植物油进口统计
■文章仅提供主流客观数据（USDA），供决策参考，无品种买卖方向分析。期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。