【新刊速递】《外交政策分析》(FPA), Vol. 21, No. 1, January 2025 | 国政学人

题目：Support from Above: International Organizations, Summits, and Leader Survival

作者：Chia-yi Lee，台湾政治大学外交学系教授。

摘要：现有文献已揭示国际组织（IO）成员资格所引发的诸多政治效应，但鲜有研究关注国际组织对领导人的影响。本文认为，国际组织成员资格通过两种主要机制对领导人执政存续产生积极影响：一是传递信息，二是提升国家福祉。此外，定期或例行举办领导人峰会的国际组织对领导人存续的促进作用更为显著。其原因不仅在于这些国际组织更为重要，更在于峰会能够提升领导人的声望，并为其权力巩固行为提供合法性支持。基于国家领导人失势及其所在国国际组织成员资格两方面数据，本文得出结论：国际组织成员资格与领导人失势呈负相关关系，若国际组织定期举办峰会，则这一相关性更为显著。

While existing literature indicates a variety of political consequences caused by IO membership, little attention has been paid to IOs’ impact on leaders. This article argues that IO membership has a positive effect on leader survival through two major mechanisms: IOs carrying information and IOs raising national well-being. The beneficial effect of IOs on leader survival, moreover, is stronger for IOs that regularly or periodically hold leader summits. This is not only because these IOs are more important, but also because IO summits increase leaders’ visibility and serve as an endorsement for leaders’ power-consolidating behavior. Using data on leader failures and IO membership, this article shows that IO membership has a negative effect on leader failures, and this effect is much stronger for IOs that hold regular summits.

题目：How States Punch above Their Weight: Introducing Hybrid Actorness as Expanded Foreign Policy 

作者：Katharina McLarren，政治学博士、马克斯·普朗克比较公法与国际法研究所高级研究员；Bernhard Stahl，德国帕绍大学国际政治专业教授。

摘要：国家与跨国行为体的相互作用已成为外交政策分析领域的重要议题。与此同时，学界对于构建新型外交政策行为体类型学的呼声日益高涨。为此，本文提出了一种扩展外交政策的类型学理论，并引入混合行为体模型，旨在阐释在政体、政治过程和政策层面同时兼具国家性和跨国性的外交政策行为体。本文认为，跨国元素是这些行为体的本质特征。为理论化这种外交政策的扩展，本文采用溯因分析法，重新审视外交政策在政体、政治与政策三大维度上的扩展方式，进而阐明这些维度如何在国家-宗教、国家-意识形态、国家-媒体、国家-商业及国家-侨民这五大跨国领域中得以扩展。在此基础上，本文通过识别从潜在型到完全显现型等不同亚型，构建了混合行为体的类型学。此外，本文认为，该模型将有助于更加深入地理解在全球化日益加深的背景下跨国因素这一不断演变的外交政策现象。

The interplay of states and transnational actors has found its way into Foreign Policy Analysis. At the same time, the call for new typologies of foreign policy actors has increased. We therefore develop a typological theory of expanded foreign policy and introduce a model of hybrid actorness that alludes to foreign policy actors with both state and transnational dimensions in their polity, politics, and policy. We assume that the transnational element is constitutive of such foreign policy actors. To theorize on such an expansion of foreign policy, we employ an abductive approach and revisit the polity, politics, and policy dimensions of foreign policy. We establish how these are expanded in five transnational sectors, namely state-religion, state-ideology, state-media, state-business, and state-diaspora. We then devise a typology of hybrid actorness by identifying different subtypes that range from latent to fully manifested hybrids. We argue that this model will help better grasp the evolving foreign policy phenomenon of the transnational in an increasingly globalized world.

题目：The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Post-Conflict Economic Recovery and Peace-Building

作者：Daehee Bak，德克萨斯理工大学政治学系副教授、研究生部主任；Hoon Lee，德克萨斯理工大学政治学系副教授；Glen Biglaiser，北德克萨斯大学政治学系教授。

摘要：近年来，冲突后的外国直接投资（FDI）因其具有助力众多发展中国家摆脱“贫困-冲突陷阱”的潜力而受到学界关注。然而，鲜有实证研究探讨FDI是否能够以及如何打破这一恶性循环。基于1970年至2019年间经历过国内武装冲突的国家的相关数据（期间超过一半的国家经历了冲突复发），本文检验了FDI是否通过经济复苏的中介效应抑制新冲突的爆发。基于两阶段广义结构方程模型（2SRI GSEM）的实证分析结果表明，冲突后的FDI能够显著提升经济重建的规模，减轻社会不满情绪，从而间接降低冲突复发的概率，亦印证了中介效应的存在。本文认为，冲突后FDI是推动战乱国家摆脱“贫困-冲突陷阱”的重要因素。

Recently, post-conflict foreign direct investment (FDI) has garnered scholarly interest due to its potential for ending the “poverty-conflict trap” endured by many developing countries. However, few empirical studies have investigated whether FDI breaks such a vicious poverty-conflict cycle and, if so, how. Using intrastate armed conflict data from 1970 to 2019, where more than half the states experienced civil conflict recurrence, we test whether FDI curbs post-conflict onset through the mediation of economic recovery. Empirical results from two-stage generalized structural equation models appear to show that post-conflict FDI increases the magnitude of economic reconstruction and lessens grievances, indirectly decreasing the probability of conflict recurrence. Empirical findings also offer evidence in support of the mediation mechanism. We conclude that post-conflict FDI is a catalyst that could help war-torn countries escape the poverty-conflict trap.

题目：Who Rallies Round the Flag? The Impact of the US Sanctions on Iranians’ Attitude toward the Government

作者：Babak RezaeeDaryakenari，莱顿大学政治科学研究所国际关系专业高级助理教授；Vahid Ghafouri，马德里先进技术研究院网络研究所（IMDEA Networks Institute）、马德里卡洛斯三世大学（U3CM）博士生；Nihat Kasap，土耳其萨班哲商学院商业分析专业教授。

摘要：政治家通常认为，经济制裁可以通过削弱目标国家精英阶层和公众对现任政府的支持，以推动其政策转变。然而，此类措施的有效性，尤其是在非民主政权下，仍存在争议。本文提出一个与传统认知相悖的观点，即经济制裁甚至可能在非民主体制下增强而非削弱受制裁政府所获得的支持。然而，这种支持态度的转变及其程度可能因不同政治派别而异，并取决于制裁的性质。为实证检验上述理论预期，本文运用监督式机器学习算法，分析了唐纳德·特朗普执政期间1000余名伊朗网络意见领袖发布的近200万条推文，考察其对全面制裁和针对性制裁的反应。分析结果表明，全面制裁在一定程度上提升了包括温和反对派在内的各界对伊朗政府的认同，使其更倾向于与国家的立场保持一致。相比之下，虽然针对性制裁引发的“聚旗效应”相对较弱，但其效果却高度依赖于制裁对象的身份。

While politicians often argue that economic sanctions can induce policy changes in targeted states by undermining elite and public support for the reigning government, the efficacy of these measures, particularly against non-democratic regimes, is debatable. We propose that, counterintuitively, economic sanctions can bolster rather than diminish support for the sanctioned government, even in non-democratic contexts. However, this support shift and its magnitude can differ across various political factions and depend on the nature of the sanctions. To empirically evaluate our theoretical expectations, we use supervised machine learning to scrutinize nearly 2 million tweets from over 1,000 Iranian influencers, assessing their responses to both comprehensive and targeted sanctions during Donald Trump’s presidency. Our analysis shows that comprehensive sanctions generally improved sentiments toward the Iranian government, even among its moderate oppositions, rendering them more aligned with the state’s stance. Conversely, while targeted sanctions elicited a milder rally-around-the-flag response, the identity of the targeted entity plays a crucial role in determining the scale of this reaction.

题目：Can Policy Succeed through Inactivity? A Case Study of UK Foreign Policy after the Gulf War

作者：Louise Kettle，诺丁汉大学社会科学学院政治与国际关系专业副教授。

摘要：不作为能否促成政策成功？为何同样是不作为，有的能够促成政策成功，有的则导致政策失败？既有关于政策成败的研究多集中于积极政策干预的效果，本文则结合政策失败与不作为的相关文献，构建了新的概念框架并提出相关假设，以探讨外交政策领域的不作为问题。本文以1990-1991年海湾战争后英国在中东的外交政策为例进行分析：彼时，英国政府推行了四项关键政策，其中两项最终成功，另两项则以失败告终。基于本文提出的新框架，并结合大量的档案研究以及根据《信息自由法》获取的文件，本文揭示了政策成败的决定性因素。研究表明，不作为可能产生重大影响，因此应在外交政策研究中得到重视。

Can policy succeed through inactivity? Why does some inactivity lead to policy success, whilst others lead to policy failure? Whilst traditional approaches to policy success and failure have focused upon the impact of active policy interventions, this article draws together literature on policy failure and inactivity to develop hypotheses and a new conceptual framework to engage with the problem of inactivity in foreign policy. These are then applied to the case study of UK foreign policy in the Middle East after the 1990–1991 Gulf War. During this time the British government established four key policies; two would succeed, whilst two would fail. Using the new framework, extensive archival research, and documents received under the Freedom of Information Act, conditions for policy success and failure are revealed. As a result, this article argues that inactivity can be highly consequential and deserves much greater attention within foreign policy scholarship.

题目：Public Perceptions of Women Peacekeepers in Troop Contributing Countries

作者：Laura Huber，密西西比大学政治学系国际关系专业助理教授。

摘要：联合国维和政策及众多国家的外交议程基于这样一种理念：女性的参与能够提升行动的合法性。然而，女性参与改变出兵国对联合国维和行动支持态度的作用机制尚不明确。基于性别刻板印象，公众或会认为女性维和人员的存在意味着维和任务更具合法性，进而增加对维和行动的支持。然而一旦出现女性维和人员伤亡，基于性别保护规范，此种支持可能会减弱。此外，女性维和人员的出现可能对传统性别角色构成挑战。本研究在印度和南非进行的调查实验表明，女性维和人员的部署或伤亡并未显著影响公众对维和行动的支持。然而，女性维和人员伤亡的曝光在一定程度上提升了公众对女性权益的支持。此外，对联合国维持和平行动特别委员会代表的一项调查显示，决策者对于女性维和人员如何影响公众支持的认知与实验结果之间存在偏差。

A belief that women’s representation increases legitimacy informs United Nations peacekeeping policies and the foreign policy agendas of many states. However, we do not know how women’s participation alters support for UN peacekeeping within troop contributing countries. Based on gender stereotypes, the public may assume that women peacekeepers indicate that peacekeeping missions are more legitimate, which may increase support. Yet, if women peacekeepers are harmed, this may decrease support due to the gendered protection norm. Moreover, exposure to women peacekeepers may challenge gender roles. Using survey experiments in India and South Africa, this study finds that women peacekeepers’ deployment or death does not impact support for peacekeeping. However, exposure to women’s casualties increases support for women’s rights to some extent. Further, a survey of representatives of the UN Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations reveals gaps between decision-makers’ beliefs about how women peacekeepers impact public support and the experimental findings.

题目：Parliamentary Interest in Foreign Security Policy: Insight from the Indian Lok Sabha 

作者：Walter C Ladwig, III，伦敦国王学院国际关系专业高级讲师。

摘要：现有研究认为，民主国家外交安全政策的有效性取决于民选官员对这一议题的参与程度。然而，除某些议题本身对选民更具吸引力之外，鲜有研究探讨影响议员关注相关议题的因素。本研究基于包含印度议会下院（Lok Sabha）10180个关于印度外交和国防事务的议会质询的原始数据集，证明通过分析质询内容，可以揭示民选官员对外交安全政策的具体关注点，从而推动国际关系与外交政策分析领域的发展；研究发现，民选官员的关注重点并非完全取决于议题的公众政治显著性，这与既有观点存在差异。此外，选举安全性、是否为反对党成员、是否代表历史上处于弱势的群体以及选区地理位置等因素，均能预测同一政治环境下不同政治家对外交安全政策的关注程度。

Existing scholarship argues that the effectiveness with which democracies craft foreign security policy depends on the level of engagement elected officials give the topic. Yet, there is little research on the factors driving individual parliamentarians’ interest in the topic beyond the notion that some issues have more resonance with the electorate than others. Introducing an original dataset of 10,180 parliamentary questions on foreign and defense matters in India, this study demonstrates that analysis of questions can have significant utility for the fields of international relations and foreign policy analysis by revealing the specific aspects of foreign security policy elected officials focus on, which, in this case, are at odds with the prevailing expectation that the mass political salience of an issue determines the level of attention given by elected officials. Moreover, factors such as electoral security, opposition party membership, representation of historically disadvantaged groups, and the geographic location of one’s constituency are shown to predict varying levels of attention by individual politicians operating in the same political environment.

审校 | 赖永祯