美国的关税正在推动中国公司向海外扩张。
American tariffs are helping to drive their expansion overseas
作者 | Mike Bird
编译 | 未来学人
来源 | 经济学人
内容要点：
中国公司加速海外扩张以规避美国关税。
绿地投资在2023年达到创纪录的1630亿美元。
海外收入占上市公司总收入的比例较低。
在西方跨国公司中，“外包”已成为一个令人反感的词语。那些曾为降低成本而积极将生产转移到海外（尤其是中国）的公司，如今都在强调对本土发展的承诺。然而现在，形势发生了逆转。中国公司正将业务转移到海外，在全球各地投资建设新的生产设施。这一趋势将在2025年进一步加剧。
AMONG WESTERN multinational firms, outsourcing has become a dirty word. Firms that once eagerly moved production abroad (especially to China) in order to reduce costs are keen to show they are committed to their home bases. But now the cheaply manufactured shoe is on the other foot. Chinese firms are the ones shifting their operations abroad, investing in new production facilities across the world. This trend will intensify in 2025.
对于希望向美国出口产品的中国公司而言，海外运营已成为必需。将生产转移出中国，可以避免特朗普第一任期实施、并被拜登政府延续的美国关税。随着特朗普再次当选，以及对中国出口商品征收60%或更高关税的可能性增加，寻找海外基地的竞争变得愈发紧迫。
For Chinese firms wishing to export to America, overseas operations are no longer optional. Moving production out of China has allowed them to avoid American tariffs put in place during Donald Trump’s first term, and retained by the Biden administration. With the re-election of Mr Trump, and the prospect of tariffs against Chinese exports of 60% or more, the scramble to find overseas bases is now urgent.
这种战略考量已超越了单纯的贸易战。在其他国家进行本地化生产，不仅可以开拓新市场，还能使中国生产商规避未来的贸易限制。这种做法既可以赢得当地好感，有时还能获得政府补贴。同时，这也反映出中国经济低迷的现实。过去几十年，蓬勃发展的国内市场足以满足中国大型公司的需求。而今，面对房地产行业低迷引发的长期经济放缓，国内市场已不再是最具吸引力的选择。
The logic goes beyond the trade war, too. Local production in other countries opens up new markets and insulates Chinese producers against future trade restrictions. It can generate local goodwill—and sometimes government subsidies as well. It also reflects the grim reality of China’s economic slump. For decades, the booming domestic market was enough for the country’s big firms. Now, faced with a protracted slowdown driven by a slump in the property sector, it is no longer such a promising option.
这种转变体现在中国企业的“绿地投资”上。2023年，这一投资达到创纪录的1630亿美元（见图表），主要分布在西方国家以外的地区。沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚、越南、摩洛哥和哈萨克斯坦成为五大投资目的地。2024年的投资势头依然强劲。电动汽车制造商比亚迪已在匈牙利建厂，并于7月宣布对土耳其投资10亿美元。长城汽车于2024年1月在泰国开设汽车厂，长安汽车的工厂也将于2025年3月在泰国投产。卡车制造商北汽福田汽车正筹划在墨西哥投资10亿美元建设电动汽车工厂。2024年前九个月，中国企业对外投资总额达1240亿美元，同比增长9.2%。
The shift is visible in “greenfield” foreign direct investment in new sites by Chinese firms, which hit a record $163bn in 2023 (see chart), concentrated outside the West. Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Morocco and Kazakhstan were the five largest destinations. There has been no sign of a slowdown in 2024. BYD, China’s leading maker of electric vehicles (EVs), which is already building a factory in Hungary, announced a $1bn investment in Turkey in July. Great Wall Motor opened a car factory in January 2024 in Thailand, where Chang’an Automobile’s factory is also due to open in March 2025. Beiqi Foton Motor, a truckmaker, is preparing to spend $1bn on an EV factory in Mexico. Overall outbound investment by Chinese companies in the first nine months of 2024 was $124bn, a 9.2% increase on the same period in 2023.
上市的中国公司仍显示出“宅家”特征。它们的海外收入仅占总收入的10%，而日本公司这一比例达35%。不过，一些先行者已经取得突破：苹果供应链中的电子企业歌尔股份和立讯精密近年在东南亚快速扩张，目前海外收入分别占到93%和89%。
Listed Chinese companies are still homebodies. They make just 10% of their revenue abroad, compared with 35% for Japanese firms. But some pioneers make more: Goertek and Luxshare, two electronics firms in Apple’s supply chain, have expanded in South-East Asia in recent years, and now make 93% and 89% of their revenues overseas respectively.
这类海外扩张蕴含着巨大机遇。若执行得当，可有效缓解贸易紧张局势。中国企业，尤其是汽车制造商，正在效仿日本企业的发展路径。上世纪80年代，华盛顿与东京间的贸易紧张关系达到顶峰，但本田、日产和丰田等公司在美国建立生产基地的大规模投资最终缓和了这种紧张关系。虽然中国汽车制造商可能难以进入美国市场，但向海外扩张将有助于改善与其他国家的贸易关系。
然而，这种转型也存在风险，正如在海外经营的中国光伏电池板制造商所遭遇的情况。美国商务部认定他们在东南亚的生产基地主要用于中国产品的最终组装，并于2024年6月对这些企业征收新关税。随着更多中国企业为规避即将到来的关税壁垒而转向海外，他们可能会发现美国贸易保护主义的影响范围仍能触及他们。
Yet the shift comes with risks, too, as Chinese solar-panel manufacturers operating overseas have found. America’s Department of Commerce says that their production sites in South-East Asia are used for little more than the final assembly of Chinese goods, and placed new tariffs on the firms’ production there in June 2024. As Chinese firms shift overseas in increasing numbers to escape the coming wall of tariffs, they may find that the long arm of American protectionism still reaches them nonetheless.■
译者注：绿地投资又称创建投资，是指跨国公司等投资主体在东道国境内依照东道国的法律设置的部分或全部资产所有权归外国投资者所有的企业。
本文编译自经济学人，采用Gemini、Notion AI编译，编辑：从林
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