发布风暴潮蓝色警报&《海洋预报》| 基于SCHISM的中国近海潮汐二维数值模拟

国家海洋预报台

2024-12-01 17:37发布于北京国家海洋预报台官方账号

国家海洋预报台根据《海洋灾害应急预案》，发布风暴潮蓝色警报。

受冷空气影响，预计12月1日夜间至2日下午，渤海湾和莱州湾将出现80到150厘米的风暴增水。河北省沧州市和山东省滨州市的风暴潮预警级别为蓝色。请沿海相关部门加固海上渔业养殖设施，开展海堤、水闸等设施的巡查维护，做好薄弱和危险地区的海堤加固工作，做好防潮准备，并停止海边露天集体活动和垂钓、游泳、冲浪、潜水等涉海娱乐休闲活动。预计2日上午解除风暴潮警报。

基于SCHISM的中国近海潮汐二维数值模拟

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http://www.hyyb.org.cn/Magazine/Show.aspx?ID=3585

读书小笔记

作者：付慧卿^1 2 吴伦宇^1 2 季轩梁^1 2 李云^1 2 张苗茵^1 2

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第五期（1-14）

摘要：基于非结构半隐式跨尺度海洋模式SCHISM构建了中国及临近海域的二维潮汐模型，针对多源资料开展了模型验证工作并进行系列数值实验。经潮汐调和分析得到M2、S2、K1、O1的调和常数和对应同潮图，并将无潮点位置同前人研究结果进行比较，与沿海114个验潮站和FES2014潮汐模型的调和常数进行验证，并与部分现场实测水位序列进行对比，结果表明该模型能较好地模拟中国海域的潮汐特征。本文还定量评估了自吸-负荷潮对数值模拟的影响，其中M2分潮受其影响最大，其振幅在浙闽一带可达20 mm以上；提升区域分辨率与添加浅水分潮等敏感性实验结果表明，当局地分辨率由3 km提升至100 m后，模拟精度可提高约30%，而添加浅水分潮后，部分区域的模拟精度最大可提高约8%。

关键词：中国近海潮汐数值模拟底摩擦

Abstract：Based on the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM), a series of numerical experiments are carried out with multi-source data. Using tidal harmonic analysis method, the harmonic constants for four constituents (M2, S2, K1, and O1), and their relative cotidal charts are generated. The location of the no-tide point is compared with previous studies. The results obtained through the comparison against harmonic constants from 114 tide gauge stations and the FES2014 tidal model suggest that the tidal model can effectively simulate tidal characteristics in the China seas. Moreover, the influence of self-attraction loading (SAL) tides on tidal simulation is further quantitatively examined, the findings demonstrate that the SAL effect significantly influences the M2 component tide, resulting in an amplitude impact exceeding 20 mm in both the Zhejiang and Fujian regions. In addition, this study includes sensitive experiments investigating the effects of altering resolution and incorporating shallow water constituents by validating the model using three tide gauge stations near Dongtou District in Wenzhou. It’s found that improving model resolution from 3 km to 100 m can enhance simulation accuracy by approximately 30%, whereas the inclusion of shallow water constituents only results in an improvement of up to about 8% in certain areas.

Key words：offshore China; the tides; numerical simulation; bottom friction