在座的很多嘉宾可能知道，摩根大通在中国展业已经有100多年！在2023年，我们完成了对本地合资基金公司的全资收购，上投摩根基金正式更名为摩根基金。
这些年来的一大惊喜是美国市场的主导地位。截止9月底，从规模来看，美国市场几乎占到全球股票市场的70%，处于历史较高点。这与10年、20年、30年前的预测形成鲜明对比，当时各方普遍认为，随着世界其他市场的扩张，美国市场的重要性将有所下降。我们在20世纪90年代初看到了一些迹象，当时日本几乎占到全球市场的15%，但随着估值泡沫的破灭，美国再次成为全球股票市场的主力军。
美国股票市场的地位要归功于以下原因：
一是创新。虽然全球各地都在创新，但美国非常擅长在创新中创造盈利，这主要得益于充足易得的资本、完善的知识产权保护、以及深厚的创业文化。美国公司在大多数科技赛道都拥有较为靠前的市场份额，从云计算到人工智能都是如此。这个局面已经维持了几十年，而且我们相信还将持续。创新在资产管理行业也发挥了关键作用。ETF和算法交易的出现使得交易更加高效，随之产生了新的产品种类，例如由摩根倡导的期权策略产品——主动股票ETF。
二是高效。美国公司高度关注创造盈利。截止9月底，美国公司的利润率处于或接近历史较高水平，一方面原因在于多数公司是“轻资产”的，例如科技和媒体公司，但也要归功于各方为提高效率和生产力所做出的普遍努力。未来，人工智能工具在维持这一趋势方面很可能会发挥重要作用。
三是股东回报。企业管理层有动力最大化股东回报。如今，公司重新开始重视公司治理，并且通过股票回购和分红向股东返还资本。
我们需要看到在股票市场方面更广泛的全球合作。这包括统一公司治理政策、会计和披露准则、以及防止跨境市场操纵的政策。
我们很高兴在上海设立了摩根大通的分支机构。我们可以借助这一平台分享全球洞见，希望这将为我们的客户创造更好的投资回报，无论他们是在本地还是全球投资。
全球股票市场的健康至关重要。资本推动创新和增长。股票市场也与对经济形势的总体看法密切相关。研究表明，即使人们没有直接持有股票，当股票市场表现强劲时，他们对自身的财务前景也会更加乐观。这也是一种“动物精神”。
最后，我们都知道全球股票市场受到波动的影响，无论是来自微观还是宏观因素，有时两者兼而有之。这就是为什么风险控制如此重要。投资者的投资组合需要在地理和资产类别上进行良好的多元化。
祝大家在未来的市场中一切顺利，也能取得好的回报！
As many of you are aware, J.P. Morgan has been doing business in China for more than 100 years! In 2023 we completed the acquisition of our local fund management partner to form J.P. Morgan Asset Management China.
My topic today is Global Equity Markets, Competition and Cooperation.
I have been an investor in the U.S. Equity markets for nearly 50 years, first as a technology industry specialist and later as CIO of our U.S. Equity business. J.P. Morgan Asset Management has over $1 trillion in actively managed equity portfolios, of which more than $700 billion is in U.S. Equities. This represents a record for our business, and we are quite proud of these results given the extremely competitive nature of the asset management industry. The key to our success has been the relentless focus on fundamental and quantitative research combined with rigorous risk controls to generate strong long term returns for our clients. We are very optimistic about our efforts here in China and believe that the cooperation between our local team here with those in the U.S., Europe and the rest of Asia will enable J.P. Morgan to continue to be a leader in Global Equities for many years to come.
Over my long career in the equities markets, I have seen many changes and now, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools proliferating, we can be certain that more upheaval is on the way. Yet despite all the evolution, the most critical aspect of equity investing has not changed: stocks are worth their future cash flows and if you can do a good job in identifying the trend of those future earnings you can indeed generate “alpha”, or excess returns above the benchmark.
Client preferences have also changed. Long gone are the days when asset allocation was simply between stocks and bonds. Now there are many more options and private markets, both in equities and credit, have been seeing increasing client interest. We at J.P. Morgan take great pride in fostering long term client relationships. In fact, one of our equity client’s dates to the 1880’s! At the time, they invested in emerging markets. The “emerging” market was the United States! Back then the portfolio was heavily weighted towards railroads. Today it is dominated by tech and health care. What will it look like 100 years from now?
One of the most significant changes over the past decades has been the rise of passive investing, simply tracking the index to achieve the beta of the market. Passive investing now represents just over one-half of the market. Despite that, many active managers, including J.P. Morgan, have continued to thrive by generating returns over the benchmark. We think both approaches will continue to coexist. Passive can be a great way to achieve tactical goals while active investing can add to long term returns by the compounding of alpha.
One big surprise has been the dominance of the U.S. It now comprises nearly 70% of the global stock market, at or near an all-time peak. This is in sharp contrast to the predictions of 10, 20 or 30 years ago when the consensus view was that the U.S. market would decline in significance as other markets around the world expanded. We saw a glimpse of this in the early 1990s when Japan became nearly 15% of global markets but that faded amid a valuation bubble and the U.S. remains the lion’s share of global equities.
There are several reasons for U.S. leadership:
1. Innovation: While innovation exists all over the globe, the U.S. has been the most adept at monetizing innovation, largely due to the availability of capital, protection of intellectual property and a strong entrepreneurial culture. U.S companies have the leading market share in most sectors of technology, from cloud computing to AI. This has been true for many decades, and we believe this dominance will continue. Innovation has also played a key role in asset management, with the emergence of ETFs, algorithmic trading which has made trading more efficient, and new product categories such as options income where J.P. Morgan has been a pioneer, with the largest active equity ETF in the industry.
2. Efficiency: U.S. companies are highly focused on profitability. Margins for U.S. companies are at or near an all time peak. In part this is because more companies are “asset light” such as the technology and media sectors but it also reflects the broader efforts to improve efficiency and productivity. AI tools are likely to play a big role going forward in continuing this trend.
3. Shareholder returns: Corporate management teams are incentivized to maximize shareholder returns. There is renewed emphasis on strong corporate governance and using share buybacks and dividends to return capital to shareholders.
The results have been remarkable. The U.S. equity market has returned 14% annually over the past 15 years, compared to a 6% return for non-U.S. equity markets over the same timeframe.
It is impossible to predict the future, but we think it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will continue to gain share versus the rest of the world. The concentration in the U.S. market, being led by a handful of technology companies, is not a healthy trend. We have seen some broadening out to other sectors in recent months and expect this to continue.
Globalization, which has been a big boost to the U.S. over the past two decades, has likely peaked. The same may also be true for the U.S. dollar which has been stronger than most experts have predicted. An additional risk is the unwinding of QE. The U.S., and many countries around the globe, had access to easy money for a long time. That era appears to have come to an end.
Valuations for U.S. equities are high relative to most other world equity markets. But valuation alone is not enough to sway investor interest. In fact, the valuation differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world has been the reality for many years. What is needed to change investor behavior is a catalyst.
China could be that catalyst. As the Chinese growth outlook improves, investor confidence is likely to come back. China plays a major role in both exports and imports around the globe.
We need to see greater global cooperation in equity markets. This includes more consistency around corporate governance, uniform accounting and disclosure standards and cross border policies preventing market manipulation.
We are excited to have our J.P. Morgan China office here in Shanghai. We can share insights across the globe which should lead to better investment results for our clients, whether they are investing locally or globally.
The health of global equity markets is vitally important. Access to capital drives innovation and growth. Equity markets are also closely linked to the general view for how an economy is performing. Studies demonstrate that people feel more optimistic about their own economic outlook when equity markets are strong, even if they do not personally own stocks. It’s a form of “animal spirits”.
In closing, we are all aware that global stock markets are subject to volatility, whether from micro or macro factors, and sometimes both. This is why risk controls are so important. Investor portfolios need to be well diversified across geographies and asset classes.
I wish everyone good luck and good fortune as we navigate the markets ahead!