文┃曾俊雄 马蕊蕊
编者按：
9月开启的美联储降息既给全球经济带来了机遇，也注入了更多的不确定性。本期专题讨论美元降息周期下的世界经济走向。本篇报道从贸易角度探索美联储降息对中国制造业出口的影响。
美联储降息对美国国内的经济复苏是否会产生积极效果尚有待观察，而对于出口型中国制造业企业而言，这一决策已然带来了切实的影响。
The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in spurring the U.S. economic recovery remains uncertain. However, for China’s export-oriented manufacturing sector, this decision has already had significant impacts.
中国进出口银行战略规划部总经理杜希江认为我国进出口企业面临三大风险：一是汇兑风险，即主要货币汇率波动；二是市场风险，即进口方需求和商品定价变化；三是国别和区域风险，即不同国家和地区受到影响的程度。
According to Du Xijiang, General Manager of the Strategic Planning Department at the Export-Import Bank of China, China’s export and import companies face three primary risks: exchange rate risk from currency fluctuations, market risk from demand and pricing changes, and country or regional risks due to varying impacts across nations and regions.
在全球经济环境充满不确定性的情况下，如何在货币政策调整中寻找应对策略，已成为每一个中国外向型企业所必须面对的问题。
In a global economic environment rife with uncertainties, finding ways to adapt to monetary policy adjustments has become an essential issue for every outward-facing Chinese enterprise.
出海中企的双重压力：
利润压缩，需求减少
Chinese Exporters Face Dual Pressure:
Profit Compression and Declining Demand
美元贬值带来的人民币升值，是中国制造业出口企业面临的最直接的挑战之一。人民币升值意味着企业在国际市场的产品价格相对上涨，这削弱了中国制造产品的国际竞争力。此外，许多出口企业以美元结算，人民币升值则使得出口收入折算成人民币后减少，直接影响到企业的利润水平。
The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, resulting in a stronger Chinese yuan, poses one of the most direct challenges for Chinese manufacturing exporters. Yuan appreciation means Chinese products are effectively more expensive on the international market, which weakens their competitiveness. Additionally, since many export companies settle in U.S. dollars, the stronger yuan reduces their income when converted back to RMB, directly impacting profitability.
在广东从事制冷设备生产的业务经理张云对此深有感触。他所在的公司主营冰箱和超市冷藏柜等设备，主要出口到北美和欧洲市场。美联储降息后的汇率波动，让公司面临了巨大的营收压力。他表示：“我们签订的大多数订单都是以美元结算，人民币升值后，原本一笔订单能换回的人民币数额变少了。对于那些已经锁定的长期订单，利润空间被大大压缩。”
Zhang Yun, a Sales Manager in the refrigeration equipment industry in Guangdong, experiences these pressures firsthand. His company primarily exports refrigerators and supermarket cooling cabinets to North American and European markets. The recent exchange rate fluctuations following the Fed’s rate cut have put tremendous pressure on revenue. He notes, “Most of our contracts are settled in U.S. dollars. When the yuan appreciates, the amount we receive in yuan decreases. For long-term contracts with locked-in prices, profit margins shrink significantly.”
2024年人民币兑换美元走势图（图源MSN）
USD to CNY Exchange Rate Trend in 2024
(Image Source: MSN)
美联储降息对中国制造业出口企业的影响不仅仅局限于中美之间的贸易，它通过汇率波动和资本市场的连锁反应，影响到了中国与全球多个市场的贸易关系。佛山的灯具生产企业的业务员万涛也提到，虽然他们的主要市场在东南亚和中东地区，但美元贬值使得部分客户的采购成本增加，抑制了采购需求。“许多东南亚国家的货币与美元挂钩，美元贬值导致这些国家的货币贬值，直接影响了当地客户的购买力。”
The impact of the Fed’s rate cut on Chinese manufacturing exporters is not limited to Sino-U.S. trade alone. Through exchange rate fluctuations and the ripple effect in capital markets, it affects China’s trade relationships with multiple global markets. Wan Tao, a sales representative at a lighting manufacturing company in Foshan, mentions that while their primary markets are in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, the dollar’s depreciation has increased some clients’ purchasing costs, dampening demand. “Currencies in many Southeast Asian countries are pegged to the U.S. dollar, so when the dollar depreciates, these countries’ currencies also devalue, directly reducing local customers’ purchasing power,” he explains.
汇率波动应对：
锁汇、产品升级、增加进口
Coping with Exchange Rate Fluctuations:
Hedging, Product Upgrades,
and Increasing Imports
面对汇率波动，部分企业已经采取了一系列措施来降低风险。汇率锁定是其中较为常见的金融工具之一。林伊所在的智能柜制造公司主要出口到越南。他指出，公司在应对汇率波动时，通常会通过银行提前锁定汇率，确保订单在结算时能够保持较为稳定的利润。“我们出口的智能柜涉及较长的订单周期，特别是一些大额订单，必须提前做好汇率对冲，防止结算时汇率变化带来的不确定性。”
In response to exchange rate fluctuations, some companies have taken steps to mitigate risk. Forward contracts are a common financial tool for this purpose. Lin Yi, who works at a smart locker manufacturing company primarily exporting to Vietnam, explains that his company usually locks in exchange rates with banks to ensure relatively stable profits on transactions. “Our smart locker exports involve long order cycles, especially for large orders. We must hedge against exchange rate fluctuations to avoid the uncertainty that can arise during settlement.”
除了使用金融工具规避汇率风险，部分企业也开始调整自身的出口产品结构，减少对低附加值产品的依赖，从而提升利润空间。中山从事户外产品生产的何斌提到，公司在应对国际市场不确定性时，逐渐将业务重心转向研发高附加值产品。他表示：“我们过去以低价取胜，但现在外部市场波动较大，公司逐步减少低价产品的出口比例，转而聚焦于车载冰箱等高附加值产品，以提升企业的市场竞争力。”
Apart from using financial instruments to offset exchange rate risk, some companies are adjusting their export product portfolios to reduce dependency on low-value-added products, thereby enhancing profit margins. He Bin, who works in the outdoor products sector in Zhongshan, shares that his company has shifted its focus to high-value-added products to better navigate international market uncertainties. He states, “We used to compete on low prices, but now, with greater external market volatility, the company is reducing its export share of low-priced products and focusing on high-value-added items like car refrigerators to boost competitiveness.”
何斌所在公司的出售的户外产品 (图源受访者)
Outdoor products sold by He Bin’s company
(Image Source: Interviewee)
尽管美联储降息带来了汇率波动和成本压力，但也让部分企业看到了其中的机遇。人民币升值的同时，美元贬值使得进口成本下降，对于那些依赖进口原材料和设备的企业来说，这是一大利好。张云提到：“我们生产制冷设备所需的部分高端零部件来自国外，比如高端压缩机，美元贬值让这些进口零部件的成本降低，间接减轻了部分生产成本的压力。”
Despite the pressures from exchange rate volatility and rising costs following the Fed’s rate cuts, some companies also see opportunities in the situation. While the yuan appreciates, the dollar’s depreciation lowers the cost of imported goods, benefiting companies that rely on imported raw materials and equipment. Zhang Yun mentions, “Some high-end components, like advanced compressors used in refrigeration equipment, are imported. The dollar’s depreciation reduces the cost of these imports, which partially eases production cost pressures.”
美国波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）10月8日波士顿的演讲中提及，美联储“或需进一步调整政策方向”，并预测年内或还将实施两次各25个基点的降息。但她亦重申，美联储的决策路径非一成不变，将紧密依托经济数据灵活应变。
In an October 8 speech in Boston, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, suggested the Fed “may need to make further policy adjustments” and projected two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year. However, she also emphasized the Fed’s flexibility, noting that its policy path is “not set in stone” and will be responsive to economic data.
美联储的货币政策调整不仅反映了美国经济面临的困境，也预示着全球市场的不稳定性。对于中国制造业出口企业来说，如何在全球经济结构调整中保持竞争力，将是未来几年必须应对的关键问题。
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy adjustments reflect the economic challenges in the U.S. and indicate potential instability in global markets. For Chinese manufacturing exporters, maintaining competitiveness amid these structural shifts in the global economy will be a crucial challenge in the coming years.
注：文中受访者均为化名
参考信息：
[1] 央视新闻《美联储降息50个基点！这次降息意味着什么？会带来哪些影响？》
https://news.cnr.cn/sq/20240920/t20240920_526910520.shtml
[2] 新华财经《美地方联储官员：美联储需进一步降息以保护美国经济》
https://www.cnfin.com/yw-lb/detail/20241009/4116296_1.html