美联储降息专题 | 货币政策进入转向期，各国央行将何去何从？

（图片来源：网络）

文 | 原牧楠 蒙田

美联储打开降息大门，多数国家先于或紧跟美联储开启降息周期，英国、日本等国基于本国经济形势的考量，选择暂时观望的态度，俄罗斯、巴西在通胀压力下选择逆势而行。

The US Federal Reserve opened the door to interest rate cut, and most countries started the interest rate cut cycle before or after the US Federal Reserve. The United Kingdom, Japan and other countries chose to wait and see for the time being based on their own economic situation, while Russia and Brazil chose to go against the trend under inflationary pressure.

当地时间9月18日，美联储宣布联邦基金利率的目标区间从5.25%-5.50%降至4.75%-5.0%，降幅50个基点。美元的特殊地位决定了美联储的货币政策将影响全球其他国家央行的货币政策的选择。各国央行谨慎选择货币政策，在控制通胀、促进经济增长和维系金融稳定之间寻找平衡。

On September 18, local time, the Federal Reserve announced that the target range of the federal funds rate was reduced from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.0%, a reduction of 50 basis points. The special status of the dollar determines that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will affect the monetary policy choices of other central banks around the world. Central banks choose monetary policy carefully, striking a balance between controlling inflation, promoting economic growth and maintaining financial stability.

在本轮降息周期开始前，美联储自2022年持续激进加息，加之新冠疫情和地缘政治冲突等因素带来的负面影响，全球经济遭受重大冲击，一些国家的央行迫于无奈，只能选择紧跟美联储的步伐被迫加息，承受着更大程度的经济压力。

Before the start of this rate cut cycle, the Federal Reserve continued to aggressively raise interest rates since 2022, coupled with the negative impact of the new coronavirus epidemic and geopolitical conflicts and other factors, the global economy suffered a major impact, and some central banks were forced to choose to follow the pace of the Federal Reserve forced to raise interest rates, under greater economic pressure.

（图片来源：网络）

美联储此次开启降息周期，无疑是为各国央行打开了货币政策宽松的空间，央行可以选择更多灵活的货币政策工具，调节本国经济。

The Federal Reserve opened the interest rate cut cycle, undoubtedly for the central banks to open the monetary policy easing space, the central banks can choose more flexible monetary policy tools, adjust the national economy.

（数据来源：各国央行官网）

（制图：蒙田 原牧楠）

事实上，多国央行已先于美国公布降息决议。今年上半年，瑞士央行意外公布降息决定，打响了加息周期的降息第一枪，瑞典银行紧随其后。

In fact, many central banks have announced interest rate cuts before the United States. In the first half of this year, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly announced its decision to cut interest rates, firing the first shot of the interest rate hike cycle, followed by the Swedish bank.

9月以来，美国通胀数据和失业率的公布使全球市场形成美联储降息的普遍预期。一些经济体央行认为美联储降息是即将要发生的事情，先于美联储降息可能会导致本币快速贬值的担忧被弱化，降息的时机已经来临。例如，9月4日，加拿大央行宣布将基准利率即隔夜拆借利率下调25个基点。9月12日，欧洲央行公布利率决议，将关键存款利率下调25个基点。

Since September, the release of US inflation data and unemployment rate has made the global market form a general expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Some central banks believe that the Fed's rate cut is something that will happen soon, and the fear that cutting interest rates before the Fed may lead to rapid depreciation of the currency has been weakened, and the time to cut interest rates has come.  For example,on September 4th, the Bank of Canada announced that it would cut its benchmark interest rate, the overnight lending rate, by 25 basis points. On September 12, the European Central Bank announced an interest rate resolution, cutting the key deposit rate by 25 basis points.

（图片来源：网络）

相对发达经济体而言，新兴经济体的货币政策体现出对美联储较强的依赖性。东南亚国家在美联储公布降息决议之后，纷纷下调本国关键利率。

Compared with advanced economies, the monetary policy of emerging economies reflects a strong dependence on the Federal Reserve. Southeast Asian countries cut their key interest rates after the US Federal Reserve announced its decision to cut interest rates.

对于这一现象，复旦发展研究院教授孙立坚认为，新兴市场国家的经济基础相对薄弱，在美元主导的国际贸易和货币体系下对美国的依赖程度较高，为了保证资本流动的稳定，这些经济体在选择货币政策时，需尽可能地与美联储货币政策的力度、时机、方向保持一致。而一些发达经济体在货币政策的选择上具有较强的独立性，受美元影响相对较小，因而可以根据本国经济形势先于美联储降息。

For this phenomenon, Sun Lijian，professor of the Fudan Development Institute believes that the economic foundation of emerging market countries is relatively weak, and the degree of dependence on the United States under the international trade and monetary system dominated by the US dollar is relatively high. In order to ensure the stability of capital flow, these economies need to choose monetary policies as much as possible with the strength, timing and direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy. Some developed economies have strong independence in the choice of monetary policy and are relatively less affected by the dollar, so they can cut interest rates before the Fed according to their own economic situation.

（图片来源：网络）

对于中国而言，此前中国人民银行已多次小幅降低存贷款利率以及存款准备金率，向市场注入流动性。而出于稳定汇率的考量，中国人民银行始终选择较小的降息幅度。这一担忧在美联储降息后得以打消，降息带来的人民币贬值压力减弱，中国人民银行货币政策灵活调整的空间被打开。

For China, the People's Bank of China has repeatedly lowered deposit and lending rates and the reserve requirement ratio to inject liquidity into the market. For the sake of stabilizing the exchange rate, the People's Bank of China has always chosen a smaller rate cut. This worry was dispelled after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, which weakened the depreciation pressure on the RMB and opened the space for the flexible adjustment of the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China.

中国人民银行宣布，自2024年9月27日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构），公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率由此前的1.70%调整为1.50%。

The People's Bank of China announced that as of September 27, 2024, it will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio), and the open market 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate will be adjusted to 1.50% from the previous 1.70%.

中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上答记者问上明确表示：“人民银行坚持支持性的货币政策立场，加大货币政策调控的强度，提高货币政策调控的精准性，我们运用了多种货币政策工具的组合，支持实体经济的稳定增长。”

"The People's Bank of China has adhered to a supportive monetary policy stance, increased the intensity of monetary policy regulation, and improved the precision of monetary policy regulation. We have used a combination of various monetary policy tools to support the stable growth of the real economy," said Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, at a press conference of The State Council.

在美国进入货币宽松周期之后，尽管许多国家选择跟随政策，但有部分国家做出了不同举动。英国央行和日本央行与美联储在同一周召开了利率会议，两家央行却并未跟随美联储颁布降息决议，宣布将保持利率不变。

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all held meetings in the same week as the Fed, did not follow the Fed in announcing that they would keep rates unchanged.

英国央行行长贝利宣布利率决议时公开表示：“经济的发展与我们的预期大体一致。如果这种情况持续下去，我们应该能够随着时间的推移逐步降低利率。但保持低通胀至关重要，因此我们需要防止降息太快或太多。”

Announcing the interest rate decision, Governor Bailey said: "The economy is evolving broadly in line with our expectations. If this continues, we should be able to gradually lower interest rates over time. But keeping inflation low is crucial, so we need to guard against cutting rates too fast or too much."

日本在本年度已两次宣布加息，该决议主要是从遏制本国通货膨胀的角度考虑的。今年3月，日本结束了长达数年的负利率政策，在7月将短期利率上调至0.25%。日本央行希望通过逐步加息来推进本国货币政策的正常化，提升货币政策的灵活性，在出现经济波动时能争取更大的操作空间。

Japan has already raised interest rates twice this year, largely to curb its own inflation. Japan ended a years-long policy of negative interest rates in March and raised short-term rates to 0.25% in July. The Bank of Japan hopes to normalize its monetary policy by gradually raising interest rates, increasing the flexibility of monetary policy and giving it more room to operate in case of economic fluctuations.

与大多数国家央行不同，在此次降息潮中，俄罗斯央行和巴西央行选择逆势而行。9月13日，俄罗斯央行宣布，加息100个基点，将基准利率上调至19.00%，市场预估为18.00%。俄罗斯央行表示，目前通胀压力依然较大，需要进一步收紧货币政策，有可能在下次会议上提高关键利率。俄罗斯央行此前已多次大幅加息，曾在7月份的会议上加息200个基点。

Unlike most central banks, the central banks of Russia and Brazil have bucked the trend.On September 13, the Central Bank of Russia announced that it raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 19.00%, compared with the market estimate of 18.00%. The Bank of Russia said inflation pressures remained high and further monetary tightening was needed, with the possibility of raising the key interest rate at its next meeting. The central bank has raised interest rates sharply several times.

（图片来源：网络）

复旦求是学院副院长赵昌运对此解释称，由于要为俄乌战争提供人力和物资，俄罗斯经济越来越难以满足家庭对商品和服务的需求,导致物价飙升。所以俄罗斯决定继续保持加息政策，以此抑制国内通货膨胀，并升值本国货币，以便在国际市场上抢占战略物资。

Zhao Changyun, deputy dean of Qiushi College in Fudan University, explained that the Russian economy is increasingly struggling to meet households' demand for goods and services as it supplies manpower and supplies for President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, causing prices to soar. Therefore, Russia decided to continue the policy of raising interest rates in order to curb domestic inflation and appreciate its currency in order to seize strategic materials in the international market.

巴西央行则是美联储政策转向后最快反应的央行之一, 迅速将基准利率上调25个基点至10.75%，其政策决定公布时间将仅比美国决策者会议结束时间晚几个小时。

Brazil's central bank was one of the quickest to respond to the Fed's shift, quickly raising its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75 per cent, and its decision will be announced just a few hours after the end of the meeting of US policymakers.

光大证券研报分析，巴西加息与政治因素有很大关系， 2023年1月卢拉就任巴西总统以来，推行一系列经济财政改革措施，扩大财政支出规模，以期实现经济改革目标，扩张性的财政政策或进一步推动通胀压力上行。巴西央行适时加息，有助于稳定货币汇率，对抗因通胀造成的贬值压力。

Everbright Securities Research Report analysis, Brazil's interest rate rise has a lot to do with political factors, since Lula took office as president of Brazil in January 2023, the implementation of a series of economic and fiscal reform measures, expand the scale of fiscal expenditure, in order to achieve economic reform goals, expansionary fiscal policy or further promote inflation pressure upward. The central bank of Brazil raises interest rates in a timely manner, helping to stabilize the currency exchange rate and counter the depreciation pressure caused by inflation.

美联储降息后，各国央行货币政策灵活操作的空间进一步扩大。随着一些经济体相继降息，全球多地的货币政策已转向宽松。

After the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the room for central banks to operate monetary policy flexibly has been further expanded. Monetary policy has shifted to easing in many parts of the world as interest rates have been cut in several economies.

长江证券最新公布的研报认为，美联储降息意味着美元流动性的增加，将暂缓美元资本回流美国，从而减缓其他国家的流动性压力。对全球其他经济体而言，在利差的作用下，美元资本可能会重新流入其他经济体，尤其是新兴市场国家。与此同时，美联储降息也为全球经济带来了不确定性，一些经济体在美联储降息后采取相应措施，控制本国货币汇率。短时间内货币政策发生诸多变动，将会加剧全球货币市场的波动，增加全球经济的复杂性和不确定性。

According to the latest research report released by Yangtze Securities, the Fed's interest rate cut means an increase in dollar liquidity, which will delay the return of dollar capital to the United States, thereby slowing the liquidity pressure of other countries. For the rest of the world, interest-rate differentials could see dollar capital flowing back into other economies, especially emerging markets.At the same time, the Fed's interest rate cut has also brought uncertainty to the global economy, and some economies have taken corresponding measures to control their currencies after the Fed's interest rate cut. Many changes in monetary policy in a short period of time will exacerbate the volatility of the global currency market and increase the complexity and uncertainty of the global economy.

此外，美联储进一步降息预期强烈，连续的货币政策调整带来的不确定性将会进一步蔓延至全球金融市场。目前美国就业增长放缓和失业率上升等问题仍然没有得到根本解决。当地时间9月30日，鲍威尔表示，如果经济数据保持一致，今年可能会再降息两次，但幅度较小，为25个基点。

In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates, and the uncertainty brought about by successive monetary policy adjustments will further spread to the global financial market. At present, the problems of slowing job growth and rising unemployment in the United States have still not been fundamentally resolved. On September 30, local time, Powell said that if the economic data remain consistent, there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, but the amplitude is smaller, 25 basis points.

面对美联储降息带来的全球经济不确定性，各国央行在调整货币政策时，都在综合考虑国内外经济形势、本国通胀压力及失业率、汇率稳定等多个因素，在控制通胀、促进经济增长和维系金融稳定之间寻找平衡，最大化保证本国经济环境的稳定性。

In the face of the global economic uncertainty brought about by the Fed's interest rate cut, central banks of all countries, when adjusting monetary policies, take into account the domestic and foreign economic situation, domestic inflation pressure and unemployment rate, exchange rate stability and other factors, in order to find a balance between controlling inflation, promoting economic growth and maintaining financial stability, and maximize the stability of their economic environment.

如日本央行行长植田和男表示：“在制定政策决策时，央行需要仔细评估国内外金融和资本市场的发展，以及这些发展背后的经济状况等因素。我们有足够的时间这样做。”

As Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said, "When making policy decisions, the central bank needs to carefully assess factors such as developments in financial and capital markets at home and abroad, as well as the economic conditions behind these developments.We have plenty of time to do that."

日本央行行长 植田和男

（图片来源：网络）