文|吕文敏 周芳妍
编者按：
9月开启的美联储降息既给全球经济带来了机遇，也注入了更多的不确定性。本期专题讨论美元降息周期下的世界经济走向。本篇报道邀请各位读者从数据出发，回顾历史降息周期，解读降息与金价之间的复杂关系。
9月19日，美联储宣布下调联邦基金利率，国际金价应声上涨。自9月美联储降息以来，金价不断攀升，屡次打破历史创下新高。截至10月30日，金价已涨至2777.8美元/盎司，超过历史最高水平。
On September 19th, the Federal Reserve announced a cut in the federal funds rate, prompting an immediate rise in international gold prices. Since the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, the price of gold has continued to climb, even setting a new historical record. As of October 30th, the price of gold had surged to $2,777.8 per ounce, surpassing its historical peak.
黄金作为避险资产，其未来的价格走向一直是人们关注的焦点。这次黄金的辉煌是昙花一现，还是新篇章的序曲？本文通过对历史数据的多维分析，揭示了金价走势的潜在规律。数据分析结果显示，历次美联储降息后金价在短期内呈上涨趋势，反映美联储宽松货币政策对黄金市场的积极影响；从长期来看，影响黄金价格的因素十分复杂，包括地缘政治、供需关系等。
Gold, as a safe-haven asset, its future price trend has always been the focus of attention. Is this glory of gold a flash in the pan or the prelude to a new chapter? Through multi-dimensional analysis of historical data in this article, the potential laws of the gold price trend are revealed. The results of data analysis show that the gold price has shown an upward trend in the short term after each interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting the positive impact of the Fed's loose monetary policy on the gold market. In the long term, the factors affecting the gold price are very complex, including geopolitics, supply and demand relations, etc.
复盘历史上美联储降息的金价表现
Reviewing Gold Price Performance During Historical Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
历史降息周期的黄金价格走势（单位：美元/盎司）
Historical Gold Price Trends During Interest Rate Reduction Cycles
(Unit: US Dollars per Ounce)
作为资金价格的风向标，政策利率的高低对资产的涨跌起着关键作用。
As an indicator of the cost of capital, policy interest rates play a crucial role in the fluctuation of asset prices.
从历史角度来看，黄金作为非生息资产在面对美联储降息会有普遍的反应模式，即在经济不确定性时期，尤其是当利率下降且投资者寻求避险资产时，黄金往往表现良好。
Historically, as a non-yielding asset, gold tends to follow a common reaction pattern when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Specifically, during periods of economic uncertainty, particularly when interest rates fall and investors seek safe-haven assets, gold often performs well.
历史降息后不同时间周期下的金价表现
Gold Price Performance at Different Time Periods
After Historical Interest Rate Reductions
短期看，与美元流动性增强相伴随的是黄金价格先涨后降；中期看，美元流动性增强会显著支撑黄金价格上涨；长期看，美元流动性增强对黄金价格上涨的支撑效应呈不断下降态势，黄金的长期表现还需考量其他因素。
In the short term, enhanced dollar liquidity is accompanied by an initial rise in gold prices followed by a decline; in the medium term, increased dollar liquidity significantly supports rising gold prices; in the long term, the supporting effect of enhanced dollar liquidity on gold price increases diminishes over time.
降息预期波动，黄金市场多空交织
The expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuate, the gold market is a mixture of bulls and bears
9月的美联储降息与新世纪以来前几轮降息大有不同，此次降息并非源于外部冲击，而是基于宏观经济情况的内部周期性调整，是一种回归常态型的降息，即降息调整后，美国经济的宏观表现将会直观影响到后续美联储的降息计划。
The interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is different from the previous rounds of interest rate cuts since the new century. The rate cut is not from an external shock, but based on the internal cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic conditions, which is a return to normalcy type of interest rate cut. Specifically, after the adjustment of interest rate cuts, the macro performance of the US economy will directly affect the subsequent rate cut plan of the Federal Reserve .
历史降息周期中的三种降息类型
The Three Types of Interest Rate Cuts in Historical Cycles
不同降息类型下的黄金价格表现
The Performance of Gold Prices under Different Types of Interest Rate Cuts
美联储主席鲍威尔强调，美国经济和就业情况基本上是健康的，并强调美联储正在“重新调整”关键利率，而不是像紧急情况下那样迅速降息。
Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized that the U.S. economy and employment are fundamentally healthy and stated that the Federal Reserve is "realigning" key interest rates rather than conducting rapid rate cuts as in emergency situations.
10月4日，数据显示，美国9月非农就业人口增加了25.4万人，远超预期的15万人，失业率回落至4.1%。新美联储通讯社表示，9月非农报告可能关闭美联储11月降息50基点的大门。但花旗认为，9月非农数据可能受到季节性调整的影响，未来就业数据将出现更急剧的向下修正，这将导致美联储在11月降息25个基点，然后在12月重回降息50个基点行列。
On October 4, data showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding the expected increase of 150,000, and the unemployment rate fell back to 4.1%. The new Federal Reserve News Network indicated that the September non-farm payroll report might shut the door on a 50 basis point rate cut in November. However, Citigroup believes that the September non-farm payroll data might be affected by seasonal adjustments, and future employment figures could undergo a sharper downward revision. This may lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in November and return to a 50 basis point rate cut in December.
目前，各大金融机构对于美联储降息预期有较大分歧，仍需要后续数据来支撑现有的观点。可以看到的是，美联储后续的降息政策对于黄金价格的影响来说举足轻重，就目前趋势而言，可以说是多空参半。
Currently, there is a considerable divergence in rate-cut expectations among major financial institutions, and further data will be required to support existing views. What can be observed is that the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate-cutting policies will be crucial for gold prices. The current trend remains mixed.
央行持续购金，金价持续看涨
Central banks continue to purchase gold, which may lead to a sustained bullish outlook for the gold price
黄金作为一种贵金属，也是一种实物商品，其价格受到黄金供需的强弱影响。其中，央行购金行为对金价的影响相对较大。
Gold, as a precious metal and a physical commodity, has its price influenced by the strength of its supply and demand. Among these factors, central banks’ gold purchasing behaviors have a relatively significant impact on gold prices.
全球央行净购金量对金价走势起着重要支撑作用。数据表明，各国央行在创纪录价格下仍在增加黄金储备，在一定程度上驱动黄金价格上涨。世界黄金协会分析师戈保罗认为这是由于黄金作为价值储存手段的作用以及在危机期间的表现所致。“主权黄金积累的持续趋势凸显了人们对黄金在投资组合中的作用的持续信心。”他总结道。
The net gold purchases by global central banks play a crucial role in supporting the trend of gold prices. The data suggest that central banks are adding to their gold reserves despite record prices, partly driving the rally. World Gold Council analyst Paul Gopaul attributed this to gold's role as a store of value and its performance during the crisis. He concluded, “The continued trend in sovereign gold accumulation underscores the continued confidence in gold's role in a portfolio.”
2010年Q1-2024年Q2 黄金价格与全球央行购金的走势
Gold Price and Global Central Bank Gold Purchases Trend
from Q1 2010 to Q2 2024
地缘冲突刺激避险情绪
Geopolitical Conflicts Stimulate Safe-haven Sentiment
2000年1月-2024年10月 黄金价格（单位：美元/盎司）与重要地缘冲突示意图
Illustrative Chart of Gold Prices (Unit: US Dollars per Ounce) and
Major Geopolitical Conflicts from January 2000 to October 2024
Public Data on the Internet; Chart by: Guhe)
回顾2000年来的多次地缘摩擦，我们发现大部分局部政治经济冲突都会带动投资者强烈的避险需求，使得黄金需求得到提升，带来黄金价格的脉冲式上涨。
Looking back at multiple geopolitical frictions since 2000, we find that most localized political and economic conflicts tend to trigger strong safe-haven demand among investors, boosting gold demand and leading to an impulsive rise in gold prices.
9月10日-10月30日 黄金的价格走势图（单位：美元/盎司）
From September 10th to October 30th, Gold Price Trend Chart
(Unit: US Dollars per Ounce)
Chart by: Guhe)
美联储降息后，黄金守住了短期关键支撑，也延续了多头的趋势。但是随着中东局势愈演愈烈，美国大选进入决胜阶段，国际避险情绪上升，黄金价格在10月30日飙升至2777.8美元/盎司。
Following the Fed's interest rate cut, gold held its short-term key support level and continued its bullish trend. However, with escalating tensions in the Middle East and the U.S. election entering a decisive phase, international risk aversion has risen, causing gold prices to surge to $2,777.80 per ounce on October 30.
华安基金认为，随着美联储降息周期的开启，市场预期美国实际利率将下行，这通常有利于黄金的表现。同时，在全球“去美元化”趋势、地缘政治环境动荡等多重因素的作用下，黄金当前仍具有重要的配置价值。投资者仍需密切关注美联储后续政策动向以及全球经济数据、政治环境，警惕黄金市场的波动风险。
HuaAn Funds believes that with the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction cycle, the market expects a downward trend in US real interest rates, which is usually beneficial for gold performance. Also, Under the influence of multiple factors such as the global "de-dollarization" trend and the volatile geopolitical environment, gold still has an important allocation value at present. Investors still need to closely monitor the subsequent policy trends of the Federal Reserve as well as global economic data and the political environment, and be vigilant of the volatility risks in the gold market.
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