16年大选后的美联储

朱尘Mikko

2024-11-07 09:06发布于上海财经领域创作者

2016年特朗普胜选以后，联储政策出现了比较明显的加速度紧缩（2017 Yellen Call），要了解当时的情况，我们需要重读16年时的联储会议实录。虽说历史不会简单重复，但有鉴于昨天选举日的交易有点太过于典型，这个时间点再刻个舟补个课没什么毛病。
回想起来，2017年也是我在研判上比较挫败的一年，当时我的误判有三：
  • 对美联储的政策路径有误判，2017年时美联储加速加息，而当时的我由于经历了2015-2016年连续两年的鸽派政策路径（两年仅在年底各加息一次）陷入了某种思维惯性，对2017年一季度的连续加息准备不足。
  • 在联储紧缩加快和Trump上台以后，很快联想到美元升值，但这显然没有发生，17年是欧元/美元十年来表现最佳的一年。反思当时的误判，主因是忽视了货币政策的跨境影响（欧元区）和主要经济体政策周期的错位。
  • 在特朗普胜选以后，因减税和财政刺激联想到美债收益率进一步上行，当时收益率也确实在年底的两次联储议息会议间大幅上升了60bps，但后来曲线在2017年开始走平，美债收益率从2.5%的水平回落。
我们分两个部分回顾2016年Trump胜选后的联储议息会议，先看Simon Potter当时侧重于市场现实情况的汇报，再看官员的政策考量。
Simon Potter在会议上的汇报：
"The U.S. election outcome produced a significant repricing in financial assets over the intermeeting period. Market participants expect the new Administration to introduce expansionary fiscal policies over the coming years and to implement a shift in tax and regulatory policy that is thought likely to promote economic growth. While there is perceived to be a high degree of uncertainty about the ultimate nature, extent, timing, and effect of these policies, market participants expect the Committee to pursue a somewhat faster pace of policy normalization."
美国大选结果导致金融资产在两次联储议息会议期间大幅重新定价。市场参与者预计，新政府将在未来几年推出扩张性财政政策，并实施被认为可能促进经济增长的税收和监管政策转变。虽然这些政策的最终性质、程度、时机和效果被认为存在很大的不确定性，但市场参与者预计FOMC将以更快的速度实现政策正常化（紧缩）。
"...the nominal 10-year Treasury yield increased more than 60 basis points since the November FOMC meeting, the largest intermeeting increase since 2010...Meanwhile, the dollar jumped, domestic risk assets rallied significantly, and emerging market assets sold off."
......自（2016年）11月的FOMC会议以来，10年期美国国债名义收益率上升了60多个基点，这是2010年以来最大的会间升幅......与此同时，美元跳涨，国内风险资产大幅上涨，新兴市场资产遭到抛售。
"Beyond this meeting, the market-implied path of the target federal funds rate steepened significantly..." 
对未来联邦基金利率目标路径的预期也变得更加陡峭。
"In the most recent Desk surveys, we asked respondents to rate the importance of changes in expectations for various U.S. economic policies... respondents rated changes to tax policy and government spending as the most important drivers."
“在最近的纽联储调查中，我们要求受访者对各种美国经济政策预期变化的重要性进行评分......受访者认为税收政策和政府支出的变化是最重要的驱动因素”。
"Potential changes to U.S. trade and immigration policies are also viewed as key tail risks that have the potential to offset the macroeconomic benefits of other economic policies."
“美国贸易和移民政策的潜在变化也被视为关键尾部风险，有可能抵消其他经济政策带来的宏观经济利益。”
"Additionally, market participants are reportedly concerned about political risk in Europe... The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index...has increased notably..."
“此外，市场参与者对欧洲政治风险表示担忧，全球经济政策不确定性指数上升。全球经济政策不确定性指数......明显上升......”
"A final and related risk identified by market participants is a further sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the potential challenges it poses for China. As shown in the lower-right panel, the onshore renminbi... depreciated 2 percent against the dollar over the intermeeting period to its weakest level since the financial crisis."
“市场参与者发现的最后一个相关风险是美元进一步大幅升值及其对中国构成的潜在挑战。如右下角面板所示，在岸人民币......对美元汇率在闭会期间贬值了2%，达到金融危机以来的最弱水平。”
再来看官员的政策考量
"...my economic forecast has responded with more restraint, in part reflecting my skepticism that fiscal and regulatory policies are likely to be as transformative as some of the markets seem to be anticipating... Should my skepticism prove wrong, we will need to tighten more quickly."
Rosengren认为市场对财政和监管政策的转变过于乐观，如果事实证明这种乐观是正确的，那么货币政策需要更快地收紧。
"To limit the degree of overshooting of our goals and the buildup of risks to the economy, I have penciled in four funds rate increases next year and even more in 2018."
Williams没有直接提及大选，但他对充分就业的过度超调和通货膨胀的担忧，以及他激进的加息路径建议（17年加息4次），都暗示了他认为需要应对潜在的财政刺激带来的通胀压力。
"The advent of a unified government could herald a very significant shift in the policy mix... At a minimum, it poses upside risks to aggregate demand and makes the overall risks more balanced."
Brainard的观点是统一政府可能导致政策组合的重大转变，并带来总需求的上行风险。
"...I do believe that the probability of overshooting our full employment and inflation objectives has increased. Time will tell, but I’m certainly now much more forward leaning regarding this possibility."
Kaplan认为，充分就业和通货膨胀目标超调的可能性增加，这表明他倾向于采取更紧的货币政策立场。
"If the incoming Administration changes economic policy in several areas as radically as promised during the election campaign, we will, in retrospect, view today’s interest rate decision as the last of an era. And, if so, we will have to develop an approach to making monetary policy in a setting of much greater nonmonetary policy uncertainty than we’ve had to deal with in recent years."
Fischer的这段话最直接地表达了对大选后货币政策制定新时代的预期，这意味着需要新的方法来应对更大的政策不确定性（Trump不可控）。
"The expectation of more accommodative fiscal policy should also support economic growth and ensure against weaker outcomes." 
鲍威尔认为更宽松的财政政策预期将支撑经济增长，并预防疲软结果。
"Easier fiscal policy also now appears likely to stimulate real activity over time, thereby placing additional upward pressure on the path of the funds rate consistent with our dual objectives."
耶伦明确指出，更宽松的财政政策可能会刺激经济活动，从而对与美联储双重目标相符的联邦基金利率路径构成额外的上行压力。
"I believe that an important objective in our communications in the months ahead should be to avoid leaving the public with the impression that we simply intend to act to offset any stimulus that fiscal policy may provide. Instead, I hope we will stress that we intend to carry out the task that the Congress has assigned to us—the pursuit of maximum employment and price stability—and we’ll adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate in response to all of the factors that affect the economic outlook." 
强调美联储的目标是实现其双重使命，而不是简单地抵消财政刺激。这表明，她希望公众理解美联储的货币政策决策是基于整体经济状况，而不是仅仅对财政政策做出反应。
一些反思
我们还需要分辨与2016年时情况的不同之处。
首先本次大选结果公布前市场已经经历了两轮Trump trade，相比于16年的胜选更不那么“意外”。
其二，目前联储刚刚开始降息，而非16年底时的正常化途中。目前联储缩表已经减速，而16年时尚未展开缩表。从姿态上看，目前联储的风险平衡刚刚从抗通胀倒向保就业因而开始降息，而16年末则是认为已经达到了充分就业可以加速加息。
其三，鲍威尔在此后面对贸易纷争时并没有经验，导致联储事后“边学边做”，匆忙降息，缩表进程最后也闹出了财政发行和税期冲击所造成的“回购波澜”，最终冲击到货币市场并被迫重启扩表。如果联储“吃一堑长一智”，那么这两个错误就不太可能再犯了。
其四，目前欧美央行之间并不存在太大的货币政策周期错位，16年后的美联储紧缩进程实际上有欧洲央行和日本央行的宽松保驾护航。目前的情况显然不可比，错位的反而是我们，“中国刺激”是一个无法被忽视的重要影响因素。
坐等联储议息会议！