先看当天新闻完整版（翻译版视频在文章最后）
Turning now to our brand-new NBC News poll
现在来看NBC新闻的最新民调
National Political Correspondent SteveKornacki is here
国家政治记者史蒂夫-科纳基
to walk us through all of the numbers
将为我们解读所有相关数据
Steve, this is the moment we have beenwaiting for
史蒂夫 这是我们期待已久的时刻
what does this poll show us?
这次民调显示了什么
Yeah, I mean, fittingly isn't it
很应景 不是吗
at the very end
在最后
we find a tie nationally
我们发现在全国范围内他俩打平了
49% for Harris, 49% for Trump
哈里斯支持率49% 特朗普支持率49%
really that's what we found
这就是几周前
when we last pulled this a couple weeks ago
我们最后一次调查时的结果
we go under the hood here
我们再看看
and look at some of the other numbers there
其他数据
there's this question of enthusiasm
还有一个问题“你对此次竞选感兴趣吗”
a couple notable things here
这里有几个值得注意的地方
this is the share of voters who are callingthemselves
这是自称对此次选举
very interested in this election
非常感兴趣的选民比例
you can see
你可以看到
it stands at 77% which is down from 2020
这一比例为77%
when we had that historic turnout
与2020年历史性的投票率相比有所下降
also interestingly here
同样有趣的是
the interest is lower among Hispanic votersand Black voters
西班牙裔选民和黑人选民 他们对竞选兴趣较低
typically you would say that is bad newsfor Democrats
通常你会说 这对民主党来说是个坏消息
but this year
但今年
keep in mind
请记住
among black voters
黑人选民这个状况
that could be very troubling for theDemocrats
这可能会给民主党带来很大麻烦
but among Hispanic voters
但在西班牙裔选民中
the Trump folks are hoping for big strides
特朗普希望在这个群体取得显著的增长和突破
they've been seeing that in the polls
他们已经在民调中看到了这一点
if that does not translate into ElectionDay votes
如果这不能在选举日为他们带去选票的话
that could be trouble for them
这对他们来说可能会造成麻烦
then we come to the issues that voters say
接下来我们来看那些选民
that matter most to them
认为对他们最重要的问题
and how they rate the candidates
以及他们对候选人的评价
and I think, again, notably,
我认为哈里斯在堕胎问题上的表现
Harris continues to do best on abortion
仍然最为突出
20-point advantage there
在这方面有20个百分点的优势
Trump continues to do best on inflation,cost of living
特朗普在通胀 生活成本方面的表现依然最好
and the advantage there of 12.
有12个百分点的优势
This is something to watch on Election Day
这是选举日需要关注的
because of course, she's actually doingbetter on abortion
因为很明显 她在堕胎问题上的表现
than Trump is doing on inflation and costof living
实际上比特朗普在通货膨胀和生活成本问题上的表现要好
we'll have to see how that pans out withthe voters.
我们将拭目以待到时选民的反应
Absolutely
肯定的
and we can continue and take a look here
我们继续来看这个
this other issue we've talked about it inour last poll, too
我们在上次民调中也谈到了另一个问题
the dueling approval ratings
“对决”式的支持率
(即两位政治人物各自的支持率或认可度在选民中的竞争)
this is sort of an albatross for Harrishere
这可能会给哈里斯造成不利影响
her administration that she's a part of
即她所在的政府
Joe Biden's approval rating sits at just41%
乔-拜登的支持率只有41%
and then there's this twist
还有一个点
Donald Trump retrospectively, do you nowapprove
唐纳德-特朗普 回想一下 以前他当总统的时候
of how he did as president in our poll
他在我们的民调的数据
48%, almost half, give him that approvalrate.
48% 将近一半的人给予了他认可
And we have to pause again
我们得先停一下
because 48% is higher than the approvalratings
因为48%的支持率高于
he was getting when he was President, Steve
他担任总统时的支持率 史蒂夫
really striking to see that.
真的很让人惊讶
Exactly, so is that a hidden advantage
没错 那这是否在某种程度上
there for Trump in some way
是特朗普的隐性优势呢
then there's this question, too
还有一个问题
we just hear all the stories,
关于提前投票 我们听到了各种各样的故事
all the images from early voting
看到了各种各样的画面
and look at this, two-third of voters inour poll say
再看看这个 我们民调三分之二的选民说
they've either voted already
他们要么已经投票了
or they're going to vote early on ElectionDay
或将在选举日早点去投票
one-third of the electorate actually saying
三分之一的选民表示
they will turn out and vote
他们会出去投票
then you can see we saw a bit of this in2020
然后你可以看到 我们在2020年就看到了这一点
remember, the early vote here
大家还记得的吧 这里的提前投票
more Harris friendly in our poll
在我们的民调中 对哈里斯更友好
that Election Day vote
选举日投票
that's the big wild card
那是非常大的一个变数
you don't know what that turnout
你不知道选举日的
will look like on Election Day
投票率会如何
but if Trump has an advantage there, youknow,
但如果特朗普在这方面有优势
see if it's enough to overcome
看看是否足以抵消
what he could potentially lose in the earlyside
他在前期可能失去的那些优势
and then the gender gap again
然后 还是性别差距
we've talked about this throughout thecampaign
整个竞选我们一直都在谈这一点
we've talked about this for decades
几十年来我们一直在谈论这个点
Trump up 18 with men
特朗普在男性选民更有优势 多18个百分点
Harris 16 with women
哈里斯在女性选民更有优势 多16个百分点
that is a 34-point gender gap
这大约是一个34个百分点的性别差距
by about 10 points
差距约为10个百分点
if this happens
如果出现这种情况
this would be the biggest gender gap everrecorded.
这将是有史以来最大的性别差距
Stunning and his lead with men bigger
令人惊叹 他在男性方面的领先优势
than her lead with women.
大于她在女性方面的领先优势
It's an interesting turnabout
与我们过去在某些情况下看到的相比
from I think what we've seen in the past insome cases here
这是一个有趣的转变
and then you could just take a look here
然后你可以看看这里
these are the battleground states
这些是战场州数据
we got some new polls this morning
我们今早得到了一些新的民调数据
and I mean yeah, what can you say
你能说什么呢
these are the averages
这些是平均值
and look, the most lopsided quote unquote
特朗普在亚利桑那州那个特别显眼的
1.9 points for Trump in Arizona
“1. 9个百分点的领先”
so razor thin in the battlegrounds.
所以在战场州 2人支持率非常接近
Yeah, tight as a tick
是的 选情非常胶着
and it comes as we're getting
还有爱荷华州的那个最新民调结果
that striking new poll out of Iowa
太让人吃惊了
Dasha mentioned it
达沙刚刚也提到了
what can you tell us about that?
你怎么看
Wow, this has thrown the political worldfor a loop
这给政治圈带来了极大的震撼
because neither party, go back here
因为两党 我们退回去看
neither party has been treating Iowa
因为在总统竞选时
as a battleground at the presidential level
两党从来都不觉得爱荷华州会是"战场州"
remember, Donald Trump did
大家都还记得 唐纳德-特朗普2016年和2020年
incredibly well here in 2016 and 2020
在这里表现非常出色
won by more than 8 points
以超过8个百分点的优势获胜
this would be if this actually happened
如果这真的发生
Harris ahead by 3 over Trump in Iowa
哈里斯在爱荷华州领先特朗普3个百分点
that would be an 11-point shift
现在的差距显示出在爱荷华州
for Harris in Iowa
支持向哈里斯的转移幅度达到了11个百分点
what is the climate in Iowa
爱荷华州目前的气氛如何
one thing that might be notable here is
值得注意的一点是
you look at where Harris is drawing hersupport
你可以看看哈里斯在《得梅因纪事报》民调中
from this Des Moines Register poll
支持者的来源
among women, 20-point advantage over Trump
在女性选民中 哈里斯比特朗普领先20个百分点
this is particularly strong for her
这个优势非常显著
independent women and senior women
无党派女性和老年女性
and Trump obviously doing better with men
特朗普在男性选民中的支持率显然更高
but one thing to keep in mind in Iowa
但在爱荷华州 有一点要记住
abortion has been front and center there
堕胎问题现在在那里的关注度非常高
with that new 6-week ban that went intoeffect this summer.
尤其是今年夏天那个新6周堕胎禁令生效后
That gender gap on display yet again
性别差距再次显现
fantastic stuff
你讲得特别精彩
we'll talk about it throughout the show
我们将在整个节目中继续讨论这个问题
Steve Kornacki, great stuff,
史蒂夫-科纳基 很棒的东西
thank you so much.
非常感谢
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