Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US stands at an unprecedented and unsustainable -5.4%, a twelve percentage points reduction since 2022.
我们的对策策略团队认为，美股牛市面临的最大风险是日本和美国实际收益率差距的逆转。当前，日本的实际政策利率与美国之间的利差达到前所未有且不可持续的-5.4%，这一差距自2022年以来已缩小了12个百分点。
As a result, tech valuations decoupled from long-duration bond prices and are now negatively correlated with the yen. This correlation suggests borrowing in yen at deeply negative real rates inflated US tech valuations. Generative AI simply provided the narrative for flows into US Tech funded by borrowing at deeply negative rates in Japan versus the US.
因此，科技股估值已与长期债券价格脱钩，并与日元呈现负相关关系。这一相关性表明，利用极低的日元实际利率进行借贷推高了美国科技股的估值。生成式AI只是为通过在日本以极低利率借款并流入美国科技股的资金提供了故事线。
Our colleagues recommend a long JPY position to hedge US tech stock weakness and overweighting beaten-down US small caps versus expensive US tech. They also see further tactical downside for US Treasuries regardless of US electoral outcomes.
我们的同事建议采取日元多头头寸以对冲美国科技股的疲软，并在估值较高的美国科技股中增配被低估的美国小盘股。他们还认为，无论美国大选结果如何，美国国债仍面临进一步的战术性下行压力。
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