【新刊速递】《和平研究杂志》(JPR), Vol.61, No.6, 2024 | 国政学人

题目：Butterfly effects in global trade: International borders, disputes, and trade disruption and diversion

作者：Ryan Brutger，加州大学伯克利分校政治专业副教授；Tim Marple，加州大学伯克利分校政治专业博士研究生。

摘要：本文对不同类型的跨境国家间冲突如何影响争端方之间的贸易和与第三方的贸易转移进行理论化和检验。基于边界制度理论，我们区分了两种类型的国际争端（边界争端和升级的军事化争端）的影响，并利用 60 年的贸易和冲突数据来检验这些争端对双边和第三方贸易流量的影响。我们发现，边界争端和军事化争端都会抑制争端国之间的贸易流量。然而，合法的边界争端与与非争端国的贸易转移增加有关，这可能会完全抵消双边贸易的损失，而军事化争端则产生相反的影响。这些结果表明，从事贸易的行为体可以通过扩大与未卷入争端的第三方的贸易来抵消边界争端造成的双边贸易损失，但抵消军事化争端造成的损失却并非如此。边界争端和军事化争端对贸易转移产生相反的影响，这一事实凸显了在研究冲突与贸易以及评估国际贸易潜在的和平化激励措施时，审查争端类型和受影响的贸易流动类型的重要性。

This article theorizes and tests how different types of interstate conflict across borders affect trade between disputing parties and trade diversion with third parties. Building on theories of borders as institutions, we differentiate the effects of two types of international disputes – border disputes and escalated militarized disputes – and draw on 60 years of trade and conflict data to test the effects of these disputes on bilateral and third-party trade flows. We find that border disputes and militarized disputes each depress trade flows between the disputing countries. However, legal border disputes are associated with increased trade diversion with non-disputing countries, which may fully offset the forgone bilateral trade, whereas militarized disputes have the opposite effect. These results show that actors engaged in trade can offset bilateral trade losses from a border dispute by expanding trade with third parties not involved in the dispute, but the same cannot be said of offsetting the losses from militarized disputes. The fact that border disputes and militarized disputes have opposite effects on trade diversion highlights the importance of examining both the type of dispute and the type of trade flows that are affected when studying conflict and trade and evaluating the potentially pacifying incentives of international trade.

题目：Lethal brands: Terrorist groups’ logos and violence 

作者：Matteo CM Casiraghi，格罗宁根大学国际关系助理教授；Eugenio Cusumano，梅西纳大学政治学副教授。

摘要：恐怖组织通常被品牌化描述。然而，这些“品牌”最重要的视觉表现——恐怖组织的标志——仍未得到探索。在本文中，我们表明，标志是一种信号装置，可为使用暴力的倾向提供重要线索。为此，我们对 562 个恐怖分子标志（2000-16 年）进行了编码和分析。在对全球恐怖组织使用的主要颜色和符号进行描述性概述后，我们依靠零膨胀负二项模型来分析这些组织的视觉选择与其致命恐怖活动之间的关系。我们的结果表明，恐怖组织标志中存在暴力、宗教和极端主义符号，以及使用黑色作为主色调，与更频繁和更致命的袭击有关。这些发现具有重要的政策意义，表明标志作为行为线索，可以预测恐怖组织构成的威胁，其有效性不亚于其意识形态。通过强调徽标等视觉产物的重要性及其对定量研究的适应性，我们的文章还为国际关系提供了一种新颖的方法论贡献，有助于弥合解释性安全研究和批判性安全研究之间的差距。

Terrorist organizations are often described as brands. However, the most important visual representations of these brands – terrorist groups’ logos – have remained unexplored. In this article, we demonstrate that logos are signalling devices that provide vital cues on the propensity to use violence. To this end, we code and analyse 562 terrorist logos (2000–16). After providing a descriptive overview of the main colours and symbols used by terrorist groups worldwide, we rely on a zero-inflated negative binomial model to analyse the relationship between these organizations’ visual choices and their deadly activities. Our results show that the presence of violent, religious, and extremist symbols in terrorist organizations’ logos, as well as the use of black as the main colour, correlates with more frequent and deadlier attacks. These findings have important policy implications, demonstrating that logos serve as behavioural cues predicting the threat posed by terrorist groups not less effectively than their ideology. By highlighting the importance of visual artifacts like logos and their amenability to quantitative research, our article also provides a novel methodological contribution to international relations, helping bridge the gap between explanatory and critical security studies. 

题目：Revisiting the puzzle of endogenous nuclear proliferation

作者：Azusa Katagiri，大阪大学国际公馆政策学院副教授。

摘要：核扩散文献通常将影响核武器扩散的供给方和需求方因素区分开来。这些解决扩散难题的不同方法提出了以下实证问题：核供应是否会刺激各国对核武器的需求？相反，对核武器的需求是否真的有助于获得核供应？如果需求方和供应方决定因素之间存在这种内生性，那么它将如何导致在估计它们对核扩散的影响时出现实证偏差？本文旨在揭示核扩散过程中核需求和核供应的内生机制。特别是，它研究了两种潜在的内生性来源：（1）各国核发展决策与核技术能力之间的同时相互作用和（2）核发展中的选择偏差。为了解决每个内生性来源，分别估计了联立方程模型和具有选择的持续时间模型。与最近的供给面文献所表明的相反，实证分析表明，各国的核需求主要由外部安全威胁而非其现有的核技术驱动，并且它们成功获得核技术主要是核发展努力的结果，而不一定取决于单个供给面因素。本文探讨了核扩散研究中的典型推论问题，并有助于我们对扩散机制的综合理解。

Nuclear proliferation literature typically differentiates supply-side and demand-side factors influencing the spread of nuclear weapons. These distinct approaches to the proliferation puzzle raise the following empirical questions: Does nuclear supply stimulate states’ demand for nuclear weapons? Conversely, does the demand for nuclear weapons really facilitate the acquisition of nuclear supply? If such endogeneity exists between the demand-side and supply-side determinants, how would it cause empirical bias in the estimation of their effects on nuclear proliferation? This article aims to unpack endogenous mechanisms of nuclear demand and nuclear supply over the course of nuclear proliferation. In particular, it examines two potential sources of endogeneity: (1) simultaneous interactions between states’ nuclear development decisions and nuclear technological capability and (2) selection bias in nuclear development. To address each source of endogeneity, simultaneous equation models and the duration models with selection are estimated, respectively. Contrary to what recent supply-side literature suggests, the empirical analyses reveal that states’ nuclear demand is primarily driven by external security threats instead of their existing nuclear technology, and that their successful acquisition of nuclear technology mainly follows as the result of nuclear development efforts but does not necessarily depend on individual supply-side factors. This article addresses the typical inference issues in nuclear proliferation research and contributes to our synthetic understanding of proliferation mechanisms.

题目：Anti-austerity riots in late developing states: Evidence from the 1977 Egyptian Bread Intifada 

作者：Neil Ketchley，牛津大学政治学教授；Ferdinand Eibl，英国国王大学政治经济学院副教授；Jeroen Gunning，英国国王大学政治经济学院教授。

摘要：在后发国家，劳动力市场常常由于进口替代和以正式就业人员为中心的政治联盟而被分割。基于政治经济学中的内部人-外部人框架和道德经济框架，我们推测，在这种情况下，劳动力市场内部人士对福利提供和公共转移产生了强烈的期望，这使得他们更有可能对拟议的紧缩措施进行暴动。我们以 1977 年面包起义期间的埃及为例来检验我们的论点，当时宣布削减补贴引发了全国性的骚乱。为了进行分析，我们将从阿拉伯语来源汇编的原始事件目录与分类就业数据进行匹配。空间模型、丰富的微观数据以及骚乱的突然性和短暂性有助于我们将一个地区劳动力的重要性与其地理位置和更广泛的社会经济背景区分开来。正如本文所表明，尽管补贴削减的影响是分散的，但骚乱在劳动力市场内部人士聚集的地区尤为集中—这是在考虑了一系列合理的替代解释之后得出的结论。结果表明，劳动力市场分割产生的道德经济可以有力地构建对紧缩政策的暴力反对。

In late developing states, labor markets are often segmented as a result of import substitution and political coalitions centered on the formally employed. Building on insider–outsider and moral economy frameworks from political economy, we theorize that in such contexts labor market insiders develop strong expectations about welfare provision and public transfers that make them more likely to riot against proposed austerity measures. We test our argument with the case of Egypt during the 1977 Bread Intifada, when the announcement of subsidy cuts sparked rioting across the country. To conduct our analysis, we match an original event catalog compiled from Arabic-language sources with disaggregated employment data. Spatial models, rich micro-level data, and the sudden and short-lived nature of the rioting help us to disentangle the importance of an area’s labor force from its location and wider socio-economic context. As we show, despite the diffuse impact of the subsidy cuts, rioting was especially concentrated in areas with labor market insiders – and this is after accounting for a range of plausible alternative explanations. The results suggest that moral economies arising from labor market segmentation can powerfully structure violent opposition to austerity.

题目：Episodes of regime transformation

作者：Seraphine F Maerz，墨尔本大学政治学讲师；Amanda B Edgell，阿拉巴马大学政治学助理教授。

摘要：本文提出了一种新的政权更迭概念，使学者们能够将民主化和专制化视为相关但相互对立的过程。我们引入了一个数据集，该数据集记录了 1900 年至 2019 年的 680 起政权更迭事件(ERT)，并为过去 120 年的政权更迭提供了新的见解。与其他方法相比，ERT 有三个主要优势。首先，它避免了单位同质性、恒定效应以及对称效应的有问题的假设。其次，它通过将政权更迭视为一个渐进且不确定的过程，整合了定性研究的关键见解。第三，ERT 基于一个统一的框架，用于研究任一方向的政权转型。该数据集区分了四大类政权转型：专制国家的自由化、民主国家的民主深化以及民主国家和专制国家的专制化（民主和专制退化）。它进一步区分了十种具有不同结果的模式，包括政权更迭的标准描述（即民主转型或崩溃）。少数 ERT（32%）会导致政权更迭，大多数事件要么在发生更迭之前就结束了，要么没有发生更迭的潜力（即民主政权进一步民主化，专制政权进一步专制化）。我们还提供了与其他数据集的比较、说明性案例研究以证明表面效度，并讨论了如何将 ERT 框架应用于和平研究。

This article provides a new conceptualization of regime transformation that allows scholars to address democratization and autocratization as related but obverse processes. We introduce a dataset that captures 680 episodes of regime transformation (ERT) from 1900 to 2019 and offers novel insights into regime change over the past 120 years. The ERT has three main advantages over other approaches. First, it avoids problematic assumptions of unit homogeneity and constant as well as symmetric effects. Second, it integrates key insights from qualitative studies by treating regime change as a gradual and uncertain process. Third, the ERT is based on a unified framework for studying regime transformation in either direction. The dataset differentiates between four broad types of regime transformation: liberalization in autocracies, democratic deepening in democracies, and autocratization in both democracies and autocracies (democratic and autocratic regression). It further distinguishes ten patterns with distinct outcomes, including standard depictions of regime change (i.e. democratic transition or breakdown). A minority (32%) of ERTs produce a regime transition, with the majority of episodes either ending before a transition takes place or not having the potential for such a transition (i.e. further democratization in democratic regimes or further autocratization in autocratic regimes). We also provide comparisons to other datasets, illustrative case studies to demonstrate face validity, and a discussion about how the ERT framework can be applied in peace research.

题目：‘Those MONUSCO agents left while we were still pregnant’: Accountability and support for peacekeeper-fathered children in the DRC 

作者：Heather Tasker，戴尔豪斯大学政治学助理教授。

摘要：刚果民主共和国是联合国历史上持续时间最长、规模最大的维和特派团所在地。联合国也考虑到了其军队中的性剥削和性虐待问题，并于 2003 年通过一份公报认识到了其重要性，该公报后来被称为“零容忍政策”。然而，政策制定者和研究人员很少持续关注维和人员所生子女。在本文中，我们分享了我们与与维和人员互动的社区成员进行的混合方法 SenseMaker® 研究的结果，以及对 58 名抚养维和人员所生子女的妇女的采访。尽管联合国制定了相关政策，但大多数妇女并未报告其子女为维和人员所生，也没有得到系统性支持。分析显示，“零容忍政策”的期望与刚果民主共和国的实施之间存在巨大差距。我们发现，极度贫困和不安全感既是妇女与维和人员发生性关系的驱动因素，也是其结果，而支持需求在很大程度上未得到满足。我们认为，联合国政策执行不力，司法管辖权复杂，司法难以获得，联合国对维和人员所生子女的调查和支持方式与母亲的期望存在很大差距，导致母亲及其子女的生活状况恶化。

The Democratic Republic of Congo hosts the longest-running and largest United Nations peacekeeping mission in history. The United Nations also has reckoned with sexual exploitation and abuse in its own ranks and, in 2003, recognized its importance with a Bulletin which became known as the ‘zero tolerance policy’. Policymakers and researchers have paid little sustained attention, however, to children fathered by peacekeepers. In this article, we share the results of our mixed-methods SenseMaker® research with community members who interact with peacekeeping personnel and interviews with 58 women who are raising children fathered by peacekeepers. Despite the United Nations policies in place, most women did not report children fathered by peacekeepers and did not receive systematic support. The analysis reveals a large gap between the aspirations of the ‘zero tolerance policy’ and its operationalization in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We uncovered deep poverty and insecurity as both driving and resulting from women’s sexual encounters with peacekeepers, with support needs largely unmet. We argue that there is a lack of enforcement of the United Nations policies, jurisdictional complexity and inaccessible justice, as well as significant gaps between the United Nations’ approach to investigating and supporting children fathered by peacekeepers and the expectations of mothers, resulting in worsened life conditions for mothers and their children.

题目：The political consequences of wartime sexual violence: Evidence from a list experiment 

作者：Belén González，苏黎世大学政治学教授；Richard Traunmüller，曼海姆大学政治学教授。

摘要：性暴力是战争的一个普遍特征，对幸存者造成严重的身体、心理和社会影响。然而，我们对幸存者在冲突结束后如何与政治环境相联系的了解有限。我们分析了斯里兰卡战后的个人调查数据，以评估战时性侵犯是否与政治活动有关。将列表实验中的非干扰性指标与个别幸存者的政治行动联系起来，我们发现个人性暴力经历会增加政治参与度。这种影响规模巨大，适用于制度化和非制度化的政治行动，并且对未观察到的混杂因素或样本选择偏差具有稳健性。因果中介分析表明，战时性暴力的幸存者通过参与公民网络进行政治动员。研究结果强调了幸存者能动性的相关性，有助于更好地理解战时性暴力、民间社会在冲突后政治中的作用以及人道主义政策。

Sexual violence is a prevalent feature of war with severe physical, psychological, and social consequences for survivors. Yet we have a limited understanding of how survivors relate to their political environment after the conflict ends. Yet we have a limited understanding of how survivors relate to their political environment after the conflict ends. We analyze individual-level survey data on postwar Sri Lanka to assess whether wartime sexual victimization relates to political activism. Connecting unobtrusive measures from a list experiment to individual survivors’ political action, we show that personal experience of sexual violence increases political participation. This effect is substantial in size, holds for institutionalized and non-institutionalized forms of political action, and is robust to unobserved confounding or sample selection bias. Causal mediation analyses suggest that survivors of wartime sexual violence mobilize politically through their involvement in civic networks. The findings stress the relevance of survivors’ agency and contribute to a better understanding of wartime sexual violence, the role of civil society in post-conflict politics, and of humanitarian policy.

题目：Do UN peace operations help forcibly displaced people? 

作者：Stefano Costalli，佛罗伦萨大学政治学副教授；Jessica Di Salvatore，华威大学政治和和平研究副教授；Andrea Ruggeri，牛津大学政治学和国际关系教授。

摘要：联合国特派团是否减少了被迫流离失所的情况？面对不安全的环境，平民只有三种选择：留下来；搬到更安全的社区；或者移居国外。他们迁移的愿望和能力取决于个人特征和宏观因素（例如这些人所处的社会、经济和政治环境）。研究表明，联合国特派团可以影响和重置因战争而改变的宏观环境，特别是在安全和经济领域。然而，我们缺乏实证证据来证明这种影响是否有助于联合国维和行动解决被迫流离失所和返回问题。本文首次对联合国特派团是否以及如何在内战期间影响总体人口流动进行了全球分析。我们将难民和国内流离失所者 (IDP) 的流出和返回数据与我们预计会影响人口流动的不同联合国特派团特征的数据（即其特遣队的规模和授权任务）相结合。使用匹配的样本，我们发现流出和流入过程的展开受到联合国特派团不同特征的影响。大规模部署减少了国内流离失所者的流动并鼓励他们返回；另一方面，联合国特派团的存在可能会增加难民外流。此外，具有与流离失所者相关任务的特派团总体上与减少国内流离失所者流动有关，但他们只会鼓励难民返回。

Do UN missions reduce forced displacement? Facing insecure environments, civilians are left with three choices: staying; moving to a safer community; or moving outside their country. Their aspiration and ability to move depend on individual characteristics and macro-level factors, such as the social, economic and political context in which these people live. Research shows that UN missions can impact and reset the macro-level context altered by war, especially in the security and economic domain. However, we lack empirical evidence on whether this impact helps UN peacekeeping tackle forced displacement and returns. This article offers the first global analysis of whether and how UN missions can shape aggregate population movements during civil wars. We combine data on outflows and returns of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) with data on distinct UN missions’ features that we expect to affect population movements, namely the size of their contingents and their mandated tasks. Using matched samples, we find that the unfolding of the outflows and inflows processes are affected by different features of UN missions. Sizeable deployments decrease IDPs flows and encourage their return; refugee outflows, on the other hand, may increase in presence of UN missions. Furthermore, missions with displacement-related mandates are associated with decreasing IDP flows overall, but only encourage refugees’ returns.

题目：State violence and participation in transitional justice: Evidence from Colombia

作者：Elsa Voytas，达特茅斯大学量化研究助理教授；Benjamin Crisman，普林斯顿大学政治学博士研究生。

摘要：国家暴力的遗留问题是否会削弱旨在巩固冲突后和平的过渡司法服务的参与？我们认为，在武装战斗之后，国家实施的暴力导致政府和解政策的接受度降低。我们利用犯罪者对平民施暴程度的空间和时间变化，发现与非国家团体实施的暴力相比，国家部队对平民实施的暴力与哥伦比亚国家管理的受害者登记册中的登记率较低有关。我们使用调查数据复制了这种关系，并提出了证据，将国家施暴与整体对政府的信任度降低联系起来。总之，我们的分析表明，分解武装行为者的身份可以为我们对和平建设和冲突后重建的理解提供重大的理论和实证进展。在哥伦比亚的案例中，国家暴力的遗留问题导致某些类型的受害者被系统地排除在过渡司法之外，并破坏了对负责建立持久和平之路的机构的信任。因此，我们的研究结果对于过渡司法政策的设计、冲突遗留问题对政治和社会结果的研究以及冲突后建设和平的进程具有重要意义。

Can the legacy of state violence undermine participation in transitional justice services designed to consolidate peace after conflict? We argue that, in the aftermath of armed fighting, state-perpetrated violence leads to reduced uptake of government reconciliation policies. We leverage spatial and temporal variation in levels of civilian victimization by perpetrator and find that, in contrast to violence committed by non-state groups, violence carried out by state forces against civilians is associated with lower levels of enlistment in Colombia’s state-run victims’ registry. We replicate this relationship using survey data and present evidence linking victimization by the state to lower levels of trust in the government overall. Together, our analyses demonstrate that disaggregating the identity of armed actors can provide significant theoretical and empirical advances in our understanding of peacemaking and post-conflict reconstruction. In the Colombian case, the legacy of state violence leads to the systematic exclusion of certain types of victims from transitional justice and undermines trust in the institutions responsible for building durable pathways to peace. Consequently, our findings have implications for the design of transitional justice policies, the study of the legacies of conflict on political and social outcomes, and processes of post-conflict peacebuilding.

编译 | 王涵婧

审校 | 赖永祯

排版 | 范世一