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摩根大通预测英格兰将夺本届世界杯冠军

2010年05月19日14:51中国日报我要评论(0)
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摩根大通预测英格兰将夺本届世界杯冠军

  South African President Jacob Zuma shakes hands with Zakumi, the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa official mascot during a celebration for the 50-day countdown to the FIFA World Cup in Kimberley, South Africa's Northern Cape Province, on April 21.(Agencies)

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  England will finally win the World Cup after 44 years of pain if Cityboffinsare to be believed.

  European champions Spain will be runners-up with the Netherlands winning the third place play-off, according to J.P. Morgan quantitative analysts who issued their findings on Tuesday ahead of the World Cup (June 11-July 11) kick-off.

  They predict world number one team Brazil will fall short in South Africa because of a tougher route through to the final than their main rivals.

  The quantitative analysts at J.P.Morgan used information such as FIFA ranking, historical results and its J.P.Morgan Team Strength Indicator to come up with a mathematical model to predict match results, they explained.

  However, they warned "this report should be taken with a pinch of salt" and that it is an exercise to "light-heartedly explain quantitative techniques and demystifythe typical quant framework."

  The analysts usually use these kind of mathematical models to help predict stock market winners with millions of dollars hanging on their calculations.

  England last won football's biggest prize in 1966 when the Beatles topped the charts with Yellow Submarine and Harold Wilson was Prime Minister.

  In the latest official FIFA rankings, England were in eighth position and Spain were second.

  (Read by Lee Hannon. Lee Hannon is a journalist at the China Daily Web site.)

  点击查看更多双语新闻

  (Agencies)

  英国的金融业分析人士日前做出预测,英格兰足球队在历经44年的磨难后,将夺本届世界杯的冠军。

  今年的世界杯足球赛将于6月11日至7月11日举行。摩根大通公司的数量分析专家于本周二发布预测结果称,欧洲冠军西班牙队将获得本届世界杯的亚军,荷兰队将获季军。

  据预测,世界排名第一的巴西队在南非世界杯上恐怕无缘冠军,因为与他们的主要竞争对手相比,巴西队晋级决赛的道路更为艰难。

  据介绍,摩根大通公司的数量分析专家通过分析国际足联排名、历史战绩以及摩根大通球队实力指数等信息,得出了一个用来预测比赛结果的数学模型。

  但他们同时提醒称,“大家应带有保留地看待这一预测”,这是“用通俗的方式解释数量分析法,让数量分析框架浅显化”的一次尝试。

  分析人士通常使用这类数学模型来帮助预测股市赢家,他们的计算结果常常关系到数百万美元的资金运作。

  英格兰队上一次捧走大力神杯还是在1966年。当年,披头士乐队的专辑《黄色潜水艇》横扫各音乐排行榜,英国的当政首相还是哈罗德 威尔逊。

  在国际足联最新排名中,英格兰队位居第八,西班牙队位居第二。

  Vocabulary:

  City: 伦敦最古老的金融商务中心,伦敦商业区,一般称为the City。

  boffin: a scientist or technical expert(研究员)

  the third place play-off:争夺第三名的比赛

  with a pinch of salt:有保留地

  demystify:使非神秘化

(中国日报)

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